CLIMATE DRIVER (SLR, Drought, Flood)

1. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK for INVESTIGATING ADEQUACY OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES CLIMATE DRIVER (SLR, Drought, Flood) Factors that buffer/accelerate impacts (Matrix at each geographical timescale: global, nat, sub-nat, local) • Biophysical (eg: mangrove being decimated) • Institutional (no land tenure system) • Technological (a dam) • Economic (market in place) • Social (AIDS? Safety nets?) • Policy • Culture • … Effects of Climate Impacts & resulting Adaptation strategies on: • Governance • Livelihoods (food security) • Gender relations and social equity • Resource Degradation • Biogeochemical cycles (feedback loops)

2. Which strategies enhance or retard resilience of small-scale rural producers to climate change? • Develop/test methodologies for assessing coping and adaptation strategies and their multiple outcomes for food security, environment and livelihoods at the community level • Evidence-based assessment of coping/adaptation strategies to assess effectiveness of interventions

3. How to do it? • Step 1 (by Sept end): Meta-analysis of: • CCAFS baseline surveys of 5000 hhs • literature of factors associated with coping/adaptation strategies • gap analysis of methods • Step 2 (early 2012): Workshop to identify pilot studies in CCAFS regions and refine methodology based on meta-analysis • Step 3 (mid 2012): Pilot study of communities to develop methodologies (small number) • Step 4 (end of project): Methods and policy recommendations

4. Criteria for selecting pilot communities (small number as function of $$$) • Cover 3 CCAF regions • Use communities/villages where baseline CCAFS has surveyed social capital • Don’t duplicate other studies • Cover range of production systems and climate shocks • Communities where history of adaptation • ….

5. Pilot study communities • Disciplines include: • Climate, adaptation, land use/land cover, institutional/governance, anthropology • Development, agriculture applications • Methods include: • Community vulnerability and capacity assessments (participatory community, focus groups, vulnerability capacity assessment, household surveys) • Landscape changes (remote sensing) • climate historical data • changes in yield/cultivars/traits • trade-off and synergy analysis

6. What is novel about this proposal? • Empirical testing of methods to evaluate multiple consequences of coping/adaptation strategies on food security, environment, and livelihoods, including: • societal consequences of current adaptation strategies, including on food security, gender relations/social equity, local governance • feedbacks to biogeochemical cycles and land use • Development of climate-resilient and climate-smart policy recommendations to enhance adaptation at the local level • Generalizable methods to assess rural producer strategies and their viability with changing climate

7. Truly interdisciplinary (really!)

8. Volunteers for meta-analysis • Overall: Arame Tall, Ruth DeFries • Baseline surveys: • Florence Kyazze, HeznomMogake (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania), Bharat P. Upadhyay (Nepal) • Literature review: AriellaHelfgott, AhsanUddin Ahmed, CheikhMbow (Senegal) • Methods gap analysis: • SharmindNeelormi, AhsanUddin Ahmed, AriellaHelfgott, Ruth DeFries (RS)

9. Unresolved • Partners? • Research community (PECS?) • Community-level partners and stakeholders • Funders??