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Demand Response in the Council’s 6 th Power Plan

Demand Response in the Council’s 6 th Power Plan. Ken Corum DR Consultation April 8, 2009. Topics for Today. How does Council evaluate resources? What’s different in the 6 th Plan for DR? Where did our DR assumptions come from? Action plan Comments & suggestions. Electricity Demand.

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Demand Response in the Council’s 6 th Power Plan

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  1. Demand Response in the Council’s 6th Power Plan Ken Corum DR Consultation April 8, 2009

  2. Topics for Today • How does Council evaluate resources? • What’s different in the 6th Plan for DR? • Where did our DR assumptions come from? • Action plan • Comments & suggestions 2

  3. ElectricityDemand Residential Commercial Industrial Irrigation Council’s Power Planning Process Economic & Demographic Forecasts Fuel Price Forecast Electricity Price and Conservation Levels Efficiency Levels and Improvement Costs Supply - Demand Balance Resource Portfolio Generating Resources and Costs Resource Alternatives (Amount Available and Cost) 3

  4. Council’s Portfolio Model • Simulates risk as well as cost of portfolios • 3000-8000 portfolios analyzed • Resources include SCCT, CCCT, conventional and advanced coal, wind, conservation, DR • Uncertainties translated into 750 futures (20 years) • NG and electricity prices, loads, water, CO2, aluminum, outages 4

  5. Council’s Portfolio Model • Each portfolio => 750 NPVs of costs • distribution w/ expected value, TailVar90 5

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  8. Changes for 6th Plan - 1 • “Conventional” DR – peak capacity • More programs, different cost structures • Demand buyback low FC, high VC (~$5/kW-yr, >$150/MWh) • AC, IRR programs are generally all fixed costs, ~$60-80/kW-yr 8

  9. Changes for the 6th Plan - 2 • New importance of flexibility resources (ancillary services) • Some DR can provide ancillary services • Controllable up and down • Frequent use – many hours in year • Portfolio model doesn’t capture this value 9

  10. Table 5-1 Demand Response Achieved by System 10

  11. Table 5-2 Demand Response Assumptions 11

  12. Action Plan - 1 • RD&D pilots • Research pilots • “risky” ideas • crucial info, not stand-alone cost effectiveness • e.g. ancillary services, firming non firm • Development and demonstration pilots • acquisition strategies for more proven alternatives • PGE proposal for WH program w/ stimulus money 12

  13. Action Plan - 2 • Pricing Structures (PNDRP) • Monitor events elsewhere • Monitor technology (e.g. smart grid) • Support appliance standards to enable DR 13

  14. Comments and Suggestions • ? 14

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