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Climate Change and Possible Impacts on Soil and Water

Explore the effects of climate change on soil and water, including potential impacts like increased soil erosion and altered weather patterns. Learn about mitigation strategies to adapt and reduce greenhouse gas emissions for future generations.

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Climate Change and Possible Impacts on Soil and Water

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  1. Climate Change and Possible Impacts on Soil and Water Eugene S. Takle Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University gstakle@iastate.edu ISU Soil and Water Conservation Club, 12 September 2005

  2. Climate Change • What is changing? • How much is it changing? • Why is it changing? • How might it affect soil and water? • What should we do about it?

  3. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

  4. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

  5. JJA Daily Maximum Temperature Trends, 1976-2000

  6. “Warming Hole” ˚C DTmax (JJA)

  7. Surface Energy Balance Latent Conv & Cond IR IR Solar T Soil

  8. Surface Energy Balance Latent Conv & Cond IR IR Solar T Soil

  9. El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

  10. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

  11. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2004 (377 ppm)

  12. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100

  13. http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/CO2/2004.htm

  14. V V V Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

  15. Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Sea-surface temperature V V V Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

  16. Sea-Surface Temperatures in August 2005 Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

  17. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

  18. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

  19. 40% Probability 5% Probability Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

  20. For the Midwest** • Warming will be greater for winter than summer (+) • Warming will be greater at night than during the day (+) • A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples the probability of a heat wave • Growing Frost-free season will be longer (+, 8-9 days longer now than in 1950) • More precipitation (+) • Likely more soil moisture in summer • More rain will come in intense rainfall events (+) • Higher stream flow, more flooding + already observed ** North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is underway but results for impacts won’t be available for several months.

  21. Sub-Basins of the Upper Mississippi River Basin 119 sub-basins Outflow measured at Grafton, IL Approximately one observing station per sub-basin Approximately one model grid point per sub-basin

  22. Hydrologic Budget Components Simulated by SWAT under Different Climates All units are mm Yield is sum of surface runoff, lateral flow, and groundwater flow

  23. Climate Change Impacts on Soil and Water (my speculations) • Increase in CO2 • increase in water-use efficiency by plants and accelerated growth • Increase in night-time temperatures • Higher night-time respiration by plants • Higher soil respiration and loss of soil carbon • Less dewfall • Increase in daytime maximum temperatures • More heat waves

  24. Climate Change Impacts on Soil and Water (my speculations) • Higher absolute humidity • More freeze-thaw cycles • Decreased mean wind speed • Altered large-scale weather patterns, storm tracks • Changes in precipitation • Increased amount -> more soil erosion, more nitrate leaching • Larger fraction of total rain will come in heavy rain events and may produce more floods and droughts • Possible changed seasonality • Possible changed diurnal patterns -> changes in soil moisture

  25. Mitigation vs. Adaptation:Since we are already committed to a global warming of about 2-4o F over the next 40 years we need to focus on: • Adaptation to climate change for soil and water conservation in the next half decade • Mitigation of continued rise in greenhouse gases so our (great)n -grand children will have as many opportunities as we have had. • More dialog between soil/water/conservation scientists and climate scientists to help prioritize climate research efforts.

  26. For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting these slides (except some of my speculations), see my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu For a copy of this presentation: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/

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