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AB 32 Scoping Plan Update

AB 32 Scoping Plan Update. California Counties A State of Progress Jeff Weir Air Resources Board December 3, 2008 Sacramento, CA. 13°F. 12. 90% loss in Sierra snowpack 22-30 inches of sea level rise 3-4 times as many heat wave days. 11. 10. Business as Usual Emissions (8-10.5°F).

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AB 32 Scoping Plan Update

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  1. AB 32 Scoping Plan Update California Counties A State of Progress Jeff Weir Air Resources Board December 3, 2008 Sacramento, CA

  2. 13°F 12 90% loss in Sierra snowpack 22-30 inches of sea level rise 3-4 times as many heat wave days 11 10 Business as Usual Emissions (8-10.5°F) 9 8 70-80% loss in Sierra snowpack 14-22 inches of sea level rise 2.5-4 times as many heat wave days 7 Medium-High Emissions (5.5-8°F) 6 5 4 Lower Emissions (Governor’s 2050 target) (3-5.5°F) 3 30-60% loss in Sierra snowpack 6-14 inches of sea level rise 2-2.5 times as many heat wave days 2 1 0 Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov Projected Global Warming Impact on California

  3. Scoping Plan Status • Proposed Scoping Plan released in October • Soliciting stakeholder comments for 2 years to help shape Scoping Plan • Board hearings in November and December • Must adopt Scoping Plan by January 1, 2009

  4. Magnitude of the Challenge ~169 MMT CO2e Reduction 1990 Emission Baseline 80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO2e

  5. Proposed Scoping Plan • Key elements: • State Government • Transportation • Energy • Industrial sources • High “global warming potential” GHG measures • Recycling/waste, forests, water, agriculture • Recycling and waste reduction • Agriculture and forests • Water efficiency • Local Government Actions • Regional Transportation-Related GHG Targets

  6. AB 32 Timeline 2012 2011 2010 2008 2009 2020 2007 Identification/ implementation of further emission reduction strategies Publish list of early actions GHG reduction measures operative Mandatory reporting & 1990 Baseline Publish scoping plan Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels Adopt enforceable early action regulations GHG reduction measures adopted

  7. Scoping Plan: Local Government Actions and Regional Targets • Local Government Actions • Will provide significant emission reductions • Impacts many different sectors of emissions • Not quantified at this time • Regional Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Targets • Reducing GHG from vehicle use • Legislative direction from SB 375

  8. Local Government Actions • Community energy • Community waste and recycling • Community water and wastewater systems • Community transportation • Community design

  9. All Emissions are “Local” • Meeting AB 32 goals means emissions in every community being reduced an average of 15% from today’s levels by 2020. • Broad partnership needed to reach goal • State, regional, local, and individual effort

  10. Working Together to Reduce GHG Emissions

  11. Local Climate Action Plans • Local Climate Action Plans • Keep track of emissions • Take actions to reduce emissions • Develop tools and support system: • Local Government Protocol • Draft released in May 2008 • ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability • CA Climate Action Registry • Community-Wide Protocol • In development stage

  12. Support:California Climate Action Network

  13. Transportation GHG Emissions2020 Other Transportation 3% Transportation 36% Electric Power 23% Industrial 18% Others15% Agriculture & Forestry 5% *Preliminary ARB GHG Projections for 2020; Other Transportation: trains, planes, ships

  14. On-Road Transportation Sources 2020 Passenger Vehicles ~ 160 MMTCO2E Heavy-Duty Vehicles ~ 50 MMTCO2E *Preliminary ARB GHG Projections for 2020

  15. Transportation GHG Vehicle Technology Vehicle Use Fuels Transp. GHG GHG Mile GHG Gallon = VMT , , Transp. & Land Use Strategies AB 1493 Regulation Low-Carbon Fuel Standard

  16. SB 375Landmark Legislation “In order to reach California’s greenhouse gas goals we must rethink how we design our communities” (From Governor’s Office Fact Sheet on SB 375)

  17. Bill Basics • Coordinates California transportation, land use, housing and greenhouse gas planning • Requires ARB to establish regional passenger vehicle greenhouse gas reduction targets for 2020 and 2035 • Requires regional planning efforts to identify ways to meet the targets • Gives builders incentives to provide sustainable developments that help plans meet the targets

  18. The Approach • Provides incentives, not penalties • Requires collaboration • Encourages information sharing • Gives regions opportunities to compare low-carbon planning alternatives

  19. ARB Role • Appoints the Regional Targets Advisory Committee • Sets draft and final regional greenhouse gas targets for 18 Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) • Exchanges data and information with MPOs and air districts • Reviews regional plans to confirm that they meet targets

  20. Statutory Timelines Jan 31, 2009 ARB appoints Regional Targets Advisory Committee (RTAC) Sept 30, 2009 RTAC recommendations due to ARB June 30, 2010 ARB deadline to issue draft regional GHG emission reduction targets for light duty vehicles Sept 30, 2010 ARB deadline to adopt final targets for 18 regions in State Spring 2011 Deadlines begin for regional transportation plan updates that address SB 375 requirements Fall 2012 Statutory deadlines begin for updated local General Plan housing elements

  21. Long-Range Benefits Source: Median VMT impact values from over 20 modeling studies reviewed by UC Berkeley’s Transportation Sustainability Research Center

  22. Making It Real • Reducing 1 driving round trip per week would reduce the average person’s trip making by 5%. • Decreasing the average trip length by one-half mile would reduce VMT by about 5%.

  23. Impacts of Growing Smarter Sacramento Region -- 2050 Source: SACOG, Regional Blueprint Program, 2005

  24. For More Information • ARB Climate Change Web Site (To stay informed - sign up for list serve) www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm • Local Government Protocol http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/protocols/localgov/pubs/final_lgo_protocol_2008-09-25.pdf • Jeff Weir, 916-445-0098, jweir@arb.ca.gov

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