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SEDS Gas and Coal Modules. SEDS Review Walter Short For Don Remson of NETL 5/7/09. Gas and Coal in Context of SEDS. Converted Energy. Primary Energy. Macroeconomics. End-Use. Biomass. Biofuels. Buildings. Coal. Electricity. Heavy Transportation. Macroeconomics. Natural Gas.
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SEDS Gas and Coal Modules • SEDS Review • Walter Short • For Don Remson • of NETL • 5/7/09 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC
Gas and Coal in Context of SEDS Converted Energy Primary Energy Macroeconomics End-Use Biomass Biofuels Buildings Coal Electricity Heavy Transportation Macroeconomics Natural Gas Hydrogen Industry Oil Liquid Fuels Light Vehicles
Coal and Gas Data Flow Outgoing Data Incoming Data Oil Oil Price Electricity Electricity Coal Coal Price by Customer Type Coal Demand Hydrogen Hydrogen Liquid Fuels Liquid Fuels Buildings Buildings Natural Gas Natural Gas Price by Customer Type Heavy Transportation Heavy Transportation Natural Gas Demand Industry Industry Light Vehicles Light Vehicles
Major Components of Natural Gas Module Domestic Supply Curve Annual Demand NETL MARKAL/NEMS Canada Imports S C Arctic S C Combined Supply Curve Year ANGTS opens* Recoverable Reserves Finding rates Initial year of recovery Proven reserves R/P ratio Production rate Methane Hydrate S C Oil Price Sector-specific Gas Price** ReGas plant approval rate* ReGas plant capacity Capacity utilization limits* LNG price floor LNG Supply **Function of oil prices *Correlated to oil prices
Direct Relationship between Oil and Gas Prices Baseline Oil Price N.G. Price Adjustment Ratio Oil Price Correlated (*Negative Correlation) Alaska Supply Parameters Year ANGTS Pipeline Opens* Natural Gas Price Maximum New LNG Regas Capacity Permitting and Building Lag Time* ReGas Plant Approval Rate LNG Supply Parameters ReGas Average Plant Capacity Annual Utilization Rate Adjustment Minimum Capacity Utilization Maximum Capacity Utilization
Gas Annual Supply Curves 2007$/MMBtu Quads/year
Uncertainty in Gas Prices Over Time 2007$/MMBtu Technology, fuel price, and policy uncertainty are included in this graph. The prices shown do not include the cost of carbon.
Uncertainty in Gas Prices Over Time 2007$/MMBtu Technology, fuel price, and policy uncertainty are included in this graph. The prices shown do not include the cost of carbon.
Gas Issues and Future Work • Update Domestic Supply Curves • Ensure shale gas is captured • Refine oil/gas price relationship • Update hydrate and LNG data as it becomes available
Major Components of Coal Module Annual Demand Annual Supply Curve AEO cases Sector-specific Coal Price
Coal Annual Supply Curves 2007$/Short Ton 2007$/MMBtu Million Short Tons/Year
Uncertainty in Coal Prices Over Time 2007$/short ton 2007$/MMBtu Technology, fuel price, and policy uncertainty are included in this graph. The prices shown do not include the cost of carbon.
Uncertainty in Coal Prices Over Time 2007$/MMBtu 2007$/short ton Technology, fuel price, and policy uncertainty are included in this graph. The prices shown do not include the cost of carbon.
Sources of Data • Gas • Markal 2007 Supply curves for domestic gas, Canadian imports, and Arctic gas. • NETL Hydrate estimates (Don Remson) • NETL LNG estimates (Don Remson) • Coal • Annual supply curves based on regressions from AEO 2007
Coal Issues and Future Work • Ensure market prices – past, present and future - are covered by the range of uncertainty • Add volatility and increasing uncertainty over time • Add correlation to oil and gas prices
