Measuring Skills in the Mediterranean Region

1. Measuring the supply side for skills in the Mediterranean region Martiño Rubal Maseda, European Training Foundation Workshop on Measuring the Transition from School to Labour Market 11 to 14 March 2013

2. OVERVIEW • What is ETF • ETF tools for skills analysis in the Mediterranean countries • ETF future work in the region

3. WHAT IS THE EUROPEAN TRAININGFOUNDATION (ETF)? Agency of the European Union VISION To make vocational education and training in the partner countries a driver for lifelong learning and sustainable development, with a special focus on competitiveness and social cohesion. The ETF has both an analytical and a developmental role and works within theEU policy framework.

4. OthercountriesfromCentral Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Candidate countries: Croatia, formerYugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey Potential candidate countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo (UNSCR 1244/1999), European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument countries ENP South: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia Libya and Israel ENP East: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Republic of Moldova, Ukraine and Russia

5. ETF-EBPM & PCs ETF believes in the need to focus more on evidence based policy making in ETF partner countries -To increase the availabilityand useof evidence -To strengthen institutional capacity in ETF partner countries - To help policy discussion in ETF partner countries [Example: May 2012 statistical workshops in Turin] We work nationally (projects/reports) and transnationally (projects/reports)

6. OVERVIEW • What is ETF • ETF tools for skills analysis in the Mediterranean countries • ETF future work in the region

7. ETF tools for measuring the supply side for skills in the Mediterranean • The Torino process • Union for the Mediterranean Regional Employability Report • Transitions surveys from education to work (Ukraine, Serbia, Syria) • Migration and Skills Surveys (Tunisia, Egypt, Moldova, Albania, Tajikistan [old], Morocco, Georgia and Armenia [new]) Other ETF initiatives in the region: • Women and work: access, limitations and potential in tourism and ICT [ETF report]

8. 1. The Torino Process

9. THE TORINO PROCESS THE TORINO PROCESS IS a participatory process leading toan evidence-based analysis of VET policies in a given country.

10. BACKGROUND LAUNCHED IN 2010 • Conference organised in May 2011, bringing together 250 people from all partner countries. New one May 2013. • Final Declaration – participants welcomed idea of strengthening evidence/knowledge base in VET policy design and evaluation, and are ready to participate in next round.

11. PURPOSE TO BUILD CONSENSUS on the possible ways forward in VET policyand system development, including: • Determining the state of the art and visionfor VET development in the country • OR • After a certain period, an assessmentof whether countries are achieving theresults they want

12. FOUR PRINCIPLES 01 Ownership of both process and results by partnercountry stakeholders. 02 Broad participation in the process as a basis for reflectionsand consensus building/policy learning. 03 Holistic approach, using a broad concept of VET for bothyoung people and adults and adhering to a system approach,including links to economic and social demands. 04 Evidence or knowledge-based assessment.

13. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK Key Questions POLICY VISION INTERNAL QUALITY AND EFFICIENCY What is the vision for VET development, and doesit comply with the broader socioeconomic development objectives? What further reforms are necessary to modernise the various building blocks of the VET system? VET IN RELATION TO ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS GOVERNANCE AND FINANCING Are institutional arrangements, capacities and budgets adequate for bringing about the desired changes in the VET system? Do the skills offered by the VET system matchthose required by the labour market and economic development? ? VET IN RELATION TO SOCIAL DEMAND AND SOCIAL INCLUSION ? Do institutions, as well as programmes and skills offered by the VET system, match the aspirationsof individual learners and the needs of vulnerable groups? ?

14. Key indicators 2012

15. Our sources • Main source: partner countries, mainly national statistical offices. WE NEED THIS DATA • International organizations: WB, ILO, UNESCO… • Reports/studies • Expert knowledge

16. Some lessons learned from the Torino Process (I) • Need to improve comparability of data: • International sources sometimes have data different from national sources • National statistics might use national classifications (education, occupations), different age ranges • Need to be very much awareof the methodology: • Methodology used by international organisations sometimes difficult to adapt to our partner countries • LFS might have some problems in some of our partner countries (might not exist, or be based on very old population census)

17. Some lessons learned from the Torino Process (II) • Need to improve data access: access to data in partner countries is sometimes difficult (availability, long time delivery, spread in different institutions…) • Need to improve accountability: methodology of data is not always clear

18. 2. Union for the Mediterranean Regional Employability ReportThe challenge of youth employment in the Mediterranean

19. Some findings : Large cohorts of young population, with high aspirations for their lives (education, jobs, housing) Share of population aged 15-30 (%), 2005, 2010, 2015 (UNDP and Eurostat)

20. Some findings : Large cohorts of young population, with high aspirations for their lives (education, jobs, housing) (Graph 1) Youth in education: around 30-to-40% (based on upper secondary and university enrolment rates) Youth in labour force: around 35-to-37% (ILO 2010) (50% males, 22% females) Youth in employment: 40% males, 15% females (ILO 2008), more likely working in low-paid, informal jobs Youth unemployed: 25% (with twice high rates for females) (LFS 2010) (Graph 2)

21. Graph 2: Youth unemployment rates LFS 2010 21

22. Three youth groups, diverse vulnerabilities Unemployed youth with difficult school-to-work transition: unemployment tends to increase with education level **educated unemployed as a particular group (« wait unemployment ») – see Tunisia (Table 1) Table 1: Total unemployment rates by educational level in Tunisia (%)

23. Three youth groups, diverse vulnerabilities 1. Unemployed youth with difficult school-to-work transition: unemployment tends to increase with education level 2. Low-skilled/unskilled youth who can not afford to be unemployed, but take precarious jobs in informal sector Youth who are not in education, training or employment: more likely inactive, most vulnerable to social exclusion Transitions: LONG AND DIFFICULT RELATIVELY QUICK, BUT PRECARIOUS JOBS AND CAREER PERSPECTIVE NO TRANSITION

24. Main reasons of difficult youth transitions Weak (skilled) job creation in private sector and saturation of jobs in public sector - business environment not encouraging SME growth Problems of inadequate education and training: overly-academic curricula, weak generic and/or soft skills and key competences, humanities Low share of VET and weak links with business – mismatch between education outputs and market demand (Graph 3)

25. Graph 3: Percentage of firms identifying skills as major constraint for business (BEEPS)

26. Main reasons of difficult youth transitions Weak (skilled) job creation in private sector and saturation of jobs in public sector - business environment not encouraging SME growth Problems of inadequate education and training: overly-academic curricula, weak generic and/or soft skills and key competences, humanities Low share of VET and weak links with business – mismatch between education outputs and market demand (Graph 3) High social expectations of youth from jobs: preference for public jobs despite their poor quality and productivity Poor job-matching services: social networks are the main tool to find (good) jobs, less recruitment on merit-based competition

27. 3. Transitions survey from education to work in Syria (2009)

28. Target group:individuals aged 15-30 who had left education for the first time in Syria in the five years preceding the survey Stratified, multistage random sampling: 3847 interviewswere conducted at households in 2010 Nationally representative survey covering 7 governorates (Damascus, Rural Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Lattakia, Dier-ez-zor, Al-Sewida) Use of retrospective questions to capture individual level dynamics in the processes of leaving education, searching for a job, finding/not finding a first job and experiencing career mobility (Graph 4)

29. Graph 4: Central concepts used in the ETF youth transition survey

30. The survey uses a calendar

31. Survey findings: youth educational attainment Polarized skill structure: 54.6% with less than upper secondary education and 28.1% who attended/graduated from tertiary education Many young Syrians leave basic education (1st or 2nd cycle) without completion  most reasons are related to school system (22% “tired of studying”, 41% “think that they cannot succeed”, 10% “school-related factors”) Share of drop-outs from post-secondary education rather low (5%)  dropout reasons are often work-related Young Syrian women and youth from urban areas have higher educational attainment levels

32. Survey findings: finding a first job Smooth transitions from school to work for many young men: 37% make direct entry; 50% are integrated after 6 months and 81% after 4 years Graph 5: Aggregate activity dynamics after leaving education for MEN

33. Survey findings: finding a first job Problematic transitions for young women: only 7% direct entries; 31% after 4 years  many women remain unemployed or housework (no work orientation) (Graph 6) Graph 6: Aggregate activity dynamics after leaving education for WOMEN

34. Survey findings: finding a first job Smooth transitions from school to work for many young men: 37% make direct entry; 50% are integrated after 6 months and 81% after 4 years (Graph 5) Problematic transitions for young women: only 7% direct entries; 31% after 4 years  many women remain unemployed or housework (no work orientation) (Graph 6) Main successful job search methods: via family and friends (64%); only 2% public employment agencies 25% of all longer-term unemployed were “discouraged” to search Only 6% of unemployed received job offers that they rejected; but also indications of too high wage expectations among unemployed

35. Survey findings: quality of jobs and work stability 18% of young men and 60% of young women start in public sector, 90% of those who start in private sector do not have a written contract (Graph 7) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Men Women Total Registered employee Unregistered employee Self-employed Family helper Graph 7: Status of first employment (in %) among the Syrian youth

36. Survey findings: quality of jobs and work stability 18% of young men and 60% of young women start in public sector, 90% of those who start in private sector do not have a written contract (Graph 7) 30% of all self-employed have employees 73% work in firms with up to 5 employees; only 7% have supervisory status; average working hours: 47.8h (men), 38.5h (women) 98% of all first ever jobs last longer than 6 months; 94% of all entrants still hold their first job at the date of interview Almost no occupational mobility is taking place (5%) + very few receive on-the-job training (only those 5% with higher education)

37. 4. Migration and Skills Surveys in Morocco (2012)

38. Target group: individuals with the potential to emigrate and returned migrants. Potential migrants: persons aged 18-50 with or without the intention to migrate (control group) Returned migrants: people who have leaved the country with 18 years or more, who have worked and lived at least 3 consecutive months without interruption abroad, and who have came back to the country during the last 10 years. Multistage random sampling for potential migrants (2600 intervewees) and snowboll sampling for each selected locality and region (1400 returned migrants). Face to face interviews

39. Definitions Potential migrants (4 groups): People who have not the intention to migrate (non-migrants) People with the intention to migrate People with a low potential to migrate People with a strong potential to migrate (migrants)

40. Preponderance of young Moroccan migrants Migrants: those who want to migrate Non-migratns: those who do not want to migrate

41. The intention to migrate is more common among men than among women

42. Preponderance of higher levels of education among the migrants

43. Moroccan potnetial migrant population more educated than returned migrant population

44. OVERVIEW • What is ETF • ETF tools for skills analysis in the Mediterranean countries • ETF future work in the region

45. ETF future work in the region • Torino Process 2014 • Governance for Employability in the Mediterranean (GEMM) • Employability country fiches • Union for the Mediterranean Employability review • Paper on employment policy in the region We will need data from our partner countries

47. Governance for Employability in the Mediterranean (2013-15)

48. GEMM 2013-2015 • 2 million euro project funded by DEVCO (EU Directorate-General for Development and cooperation) • Covers all countries in the region (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, occupied Palestinian territory and Tunisia) • Focuses on enhancing Multi-level governance of VET systems, with particular attention to: • Financing: mechanisms for collecting, allocating and management of public/private funds and co-financing funds in VET • Quality assurance & monitoring:Emphasis on output and outcome factors for assessing the quality ofVET programmes and policies: the adequacy of the skills acquired, drop-out and completion rates, access and equity, employment rates and the type of employment obtained etc.

49. GEMM Project components • Component 1. At policy making level (national): VET policy makers, social partners and civil society • Awareness and knowledge on Multilevel Governance:Mapping and analysis, publications, guidance notes etc. • Mapping is based on a methodology for qualititative participatory evidence • Capacity building on VET multi-level governance (with focus on financing and QA), training workshops, study visits etc. • Networking and peer learning at national and regional (cross-country) level: seminars, workshops, study visits etc.

50. GEMM Project components Component 2: At sub-national level (local/territorial): Innovative and concrete actions • Select and support pilot projects as laboratories for new practices of governance for employability • Disseminate national reflection on VET reform, Multilevel Governance, Financing, Quality Assurance • Dissemination, knowledge sharing and peer learning at local, national and regional (cross-country)