Overview of global statistics on orphans and children out of home care

1. Overview of global statistics on orphans and children out of home care The Way Forward Project, First Working Groups Convening Waterview Conference Center, Arlington, Virginia, February 9-11, 2011 Claudia Cappa Statistics and Monitoring Section, UNICEF, NY

2. Outline • Present global estimates of orphans and explain how these numbers are calculated • Examples of data analysis on orphans and main findings • UNICEF support for data collection on orphans and children’s living arrangements • UNICEF methodological work on estimates of children out of home care • Interagency work on children in formal care

3. Global estimates on orphans

4. Definition of orphans • A child who has lost one or both parents (i.e. not only children who have lost both parents, but also those who have lost a father but have a surviving mother or have lost their mother but have a surviving father) • Definition adopted in the mid-1990s as the AIDS pandemic began leading to the death of millions of parents worldwide • Terminology of a ‘single orphan’ – the loss of one parent – and a ‘double orphan’ – the loss of both parents • Estimates not be interpreted to mean that these children are in need of a new family, shelter, or care • Evidence clearly shows that the vast majority of orphans are living with a surviving parent, grandparent, or other family member.  More than 90 per cent of all orphans are over the age of five

5. Interagency estimates on orphans Methods • Nationally representative surveys • Demographic calculations

6. National surveys • Two main sources • Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) • Multiple Independent Cluster Surveys (MICS) • Strengths • Nationally representative samples of households • Provides detail on age, orphanhood status and well-being of children • Weaknesses • Only captures children living in households • May under-estimate maternal orphans

7. Demographic estimates • Prepared by United Nations Agencies • Based on demographic estimates and projection for all countries prepared by United Nations Population Division • Estimates of the number of orphans by age, sex, cause (AIDS and non-AIDS), and type (maternal, paternal, double)

8. Demographic estimates • Strengths • Estimates available for all countries and all years • Separate estimates for AIDS and non-AIDS orphans • Weaknesses • May be less accurate than surveys since requires good estimates of fertility and mortality • Provides no information about living conditions of child (in or out of family care, living in poverty or not)

9. Demographic estimates The number of orphans caused by each adult death is estimated from past fertility and child survival patterns. Surviving children are tracked through time as they age and, in some cases, die. Example of a parent who dies at age 35. If that person had three children, born when the parent was 22, 24 and 34 years old, and all children survived, then the parent’s death would create 3 orphans, aged 6, 11 and 13 at the time of death. Death Age 15 20 25 30 35 Births X XX Age at parent’s death 13 11 6 Sources: Grassly NC, Timaeus IM. Methods to estimate the number of orphans as a result of AIDS and other causes in Sub-Saharan Africa J Acquir Immune DeficSyndr 2005;39:365e75. Grassly NC, Lewis JJC, Mahy M, et al. Comparison of survey estimates with UNAIDS/WHO projections of mortality and orphan numbers in sub-Saharan Africa. Popul Studs 2004;58:207e17.

10. Number of orphans: global estimates, 2009 Million Source: Children and AIDS Fifth Stocktaking Report, 2010.

11. Number of orphans by region, 2009 Source: Children and AIDS Fifth Stocktaking Report, 2010.

12. UNICEF support for data collection on orphans and children's living arrangements

13. The Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey • Household surveys designed to collect data on children and women and to provide evidence base for improved policy formulation and programme planning • Key data source for monitoring the MDGs, the World Fit for Children goals, and other major international commitments • More than 100 indicators (nutrition, child health, mortality, child protection, education, HIV, etc.) • Data available by background characteristics (sex, ethnicity, wealth, education, etc.) and at the sub-national level • Harmonized with DHS

14. Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS)15 years, 100 countries and 200 surveys Note: Countries with at least one MICS survey.

15. MICS Questionnaire for households MICS4 Survey Design Workshop

16. MICS4 Survey Design Workshop

17. MICS data on children’s living arrangements and orphanhood • *MICS indicator 78: Children who are not living with at least one biological parent, either because the parents live elsewhere or because the parents are dead (HL9=2 or HL10=00) and (HL11=2 or HL12=00). • ** MICS indicator 75: Children for whom one or both biological parents are dead (HL9=2 or HL11=2). • The denominator in this table is children age 0-17 years enumerated in the household listing.

18. Children without parental care:the case of Burundi Percentage of children aged 0-15 who are: MICS 2006

19. Data analysis

20. Research into determinants of vulnerability (AkwaraP. et al., AIDS Care, 2010) • Are orphans more likely to have worse outcomes than non-orphans? • Outcomes: wasting, school attendance, early sexual debut • Are children living in households with chronically ill or HIV positive adults more likely to have worse outcomes than those who don’t? • Aside from orphaning, chronic illness or HIV positive adults in household, what other factors are associated with poor child outcomes?

21. Main findings • Orphans more likely to experience poorer outcomes (with statistically significant differences) in: 5/35 countries for stunting 38/59 countries for school attendance 0/17 for early sexual debut for males; 7/23 for females • However, orphanhood is not a predictor of certain well-being outcomes, even in countries with high HIV prevalence • Other factors are more frequently associated with poor outcomes • Household wealth, in many instances associated with wasting and school attendance • Education of adult household members significantly associated with school attendance

22. Data on children out of home care

23. Main challenges Street children Main challenges: Lack of agreed operational definitions and criteria for the identification of street children, intelligence gap and sampling issues Children living in institutions Main challenges: Many institutions are unregistered, and many countries do not regularly collect and report data on children in institutional care

25. Methodological work • Development of manual for the measurement of indicators for children in formal care (UNICEF & Better Care Network, 2009) • Development and testing of a methodology (sampling technique and questionnaire) to collect data on children in institutions and street children (2007) • Child Protection Monitoring and Evaluation reference Group (CP MERG) Confirmed members: UNICEF, Save the Children, ILO, UNFPA, USAID (PL 109-95 Secretariat, DCOF), World Vision International, Oak Foundation, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation Four work priorities for the first biennium, including collation and assessment of methods to calculate estimates of children out of home care and the quality of the care provided (led by Bill Bell and Sarah Lilley/Save the Children)

26. www.childinfo.org www.cpmerg.com

27. Thank you Acknowledgements: Priscilla Akwara and Danielle Burke, UNICEF NY John Stover, Futures Institute