Robert H. Tai University of Virginia July 9 - 11, 2008

2. Texas Regional Collaboratives for Excellence in Science and Mathematics TeachingFourteenth Annual Meeting Planning Ahead and Looking Back: Connections Between Early Science Interest and Science-related Careers (and a few other things you might find interesting) Robert H. Tai University of Virginia July 9 - 11, 2008

3. National Research Council Report raises questions about the United States continuing to maintain its dominance as a world leader in science and technology

7. A commonly held belief among many scientists is that childhood interest plays an important role in guiding and sustaining persistence in science study.Can we offer an analysis that would provide convincing evidence for this conclusion?

8. National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988 - Public Release database• Data collected from 1988 - 2000, a 12 year span • Participants’ age ranged from 14 - 26 years old • Data analysis used a subsample which inlcuded 3359 students

9. What kind of work do you expect to be doing when you are 30 years old? (MARK THE ANSWER THAT COMES CLOSEST TO WHAT YOU EXPECT TO BE DOING. IF YOU HAVE TWO OR THREE THINGS YOU THINK YOU MAY BE DOING, DO NOT CHOOSE MORE THAN ONE ANSWER. INSTEAD, MAKE ONE BEST GUESS.) What do you want to be when you grow up? Career Expectations in 8th grade?  ?Majors of Earned College Baccalaureate Degrees

10. Multinomial Logistic Regression • Compared three outcome groups • Physical Science/Engineering degrees • Life Science degrees • Nonscience degrees • Two comparisons • Nonscience to Physical Science/Engineering • Nonscience to Life Science • Question Predictor - Career Expectation • Controls • Achievement • Demographic background • Academic characteristics • Parental background

12. Science Expecters Nonscience Expecters

13. Science Expecters Nonscience Expecters

14. Expected Science-related Career Did Not Expect Science-related Career

15. Conclusions • Students’ future career aspirations in 8th grade are a significant predictor of their likelihood to earn baccalaureate degrees in science-related fields based on this analysis • Academic achievement as measured by a standardized mathematics test is NOT as consistently significant as 8th grade career aspirations in predicting science–related college degree concentrations in this analysis

16. Additional research findings from more recent work

17. What do scientists and graduate students have to say about their experiences? • National survey study of chemists, physicists, and graduate students • 30% response rate • Analysis shows data is representative of chemists and physicists

18. Q18:145 - When do scientists and graduate students say they first became interested “science”?

19. For scientists and graduate students in chemistry and physics, when do they form their initial interest in science? • 70% of scientists and 69% of graduate students reported developing their interest in science in Grades K-8 • 24% of both scientists and graduate students reported developing their interest in science in Grades 9 - 12 • 6% of scientists and 7% of graduate students reported developing their interest in science in College

20. Q19:145 - When do scientists and graduate students say they first became interested “science”?

21. For scientists and graduate students in chemistry and physics, when do they form their initial interest in their career field? • 29% of scientists and 23% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in Grades K-8 • 52% of scientists and 56% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in Grades 9-12 • 18% of scientists and 21% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in College

22. New Analysis on Mathematics and Science Advanced Placement Using NELS:88 - Restricted Access Database(in collaboration with C. Q. Liu & X. Fan) • National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988 - Restricted Access transcript data • Respondents tracked beginning in 8th grade for 12 years, 1988 - 2000 • Focused on College graduates (4-year degrees) - Science-related v. Nonscience/Social Science Degrees • Advanced Placement program participation - science & mathematics exams

23. Descriptive Statistics Table 1a: Math/Science AP and non-AP Students in 1992

24. Descriptive Statistics Table 1b: Math/Science AP and non-AP Students

25. Logistic Regression Outcome • Earned Science-related Baccalaureate (0, 1) Predictors • Took AP science exam (0, 1) • Took AP math exam (0, 1) • Career Expectation (0, 1) • Demographic Background • Achievement Test Scores

26. Table 2: Logistic Regression Models of AP math and science exams predicting likelihood of earning Science-related Baccalaureate Degree (N=3863, Model 1 Pseudo R2 = 0.0450, *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01)

27. Conclusions from new analysis using NELS:88 - Restricted Access Database • Career Expectation remains a robust predictor for earning science-related baccalaureate degrees • Advanced Placement participation in Mathematics and Science associated with greater likelihood to earn science-related baccalaureate degrees • AP Mathematics participation subsumes AP Science participation • Career Expectation and Advanced Placement participation in Mathematics or Science appear to be complementary

28. hs chem hs bio hs phys Association between High School science and mathematics and college science performance • Sadler, P. M. & Tai, R. H. (2007). The Two High-School Pillars Supporting College Science. Science. 317(5837), 457 - 458. • Project FICSS: Factors Influencing College Science Success • Parallel analyses of three samples of introductory college science classes in biology (n = 2650), chemistry (n=3561), and physics (n=2263) • Cross-disciplinary learning of high school biology, chemistry, and physics does not appear to be associated with higher levels of performance in introductory college science courses

29. hs calculus Broad Influence of Mathematics (i.e. Calculus) • However, mathematics (specifically, high school calculus) has a significant association across introductory college science courses in all three disciplines, even biology

30. Recommendations • Promoting Interest in Science is Important • Early Interest in Science is very important, but continuing to promote interest in high school is also very important • High test scores Do Not replace Interest • Advanced Placement in Calculus is not the only answer, but it is helpful • Focus on steady advancement in K-12 mathematics culminating in Calculus will help promote higher achievement in introductory college science courses.

31. The national focus on secondary and post-secondary education appears to overlook pre-secondary science education. Given the apparent importance of the connection between science interest (career expectations) and earned baccalaureate degrees in science-related disciplines, reassessment of the importance of the role of interest in science education appears to be in order.

32. Thank you. Robert H. Tai, rhtai@virginia.edu

34. Careers in Science Degrees in Science Interest in Science Sections of the science “pipeline”

35. Many important questions are left unanswered. • How do we best generate interest in science early within a child? • How might an interest in science be translated into a child’s vision of her/his future? • What kind of evidence do we need to produce to help guide our practices? • What kind of evidence do we need to produce to convince an open-minded skeptic?

36. What is convincing evidence? How do we know this interest came from your program and not from somewhere else? How do we know that without your program, these children wouldn’t have arrived at their decision on their own? What evidence do we have indicating that AYS-type programs are necessary?

37. Are Academies for Young Scientistsmodels for the future? The answer to this question will not be based on whether or not your programs inspired children’s interest in science. The answer to this question will be based on whether or not we can generate convincing evidence.

38. Conclusions, again in English Early Interest in Science Degrees in Science Careers in Science