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Reliability Modelling for Business Decisions

Reliability Modelling for Business Decisions . Aa. Ao. Uptime. MTBF. Random Numbers. Ai. MTTR. Simulation. Maintainability. Availability. Monte Carlo. Introduction. Definitions Modelling overview Modelling construction Event graph Results Business Decisions - Questions answered.

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Reliability Modelling for Business Decisions

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  1. Reliability Modelling for Business Decisions Aa Ao Uptime MTBF Random Numbers Ai MTTR Simulation Maintainability Availability Monte Carlo

  2. Introduction Definitions Modelling overview Modelling construction Event graph Results Business Decisions - Questions answered

  3. Reliability • The ability of a system or component to perform its requiredfunctions under statedconditions for a specified period of time1. 1. Blanchard, Benjamin S. (1992), Logistics Engineering and Management (Fourth Ed.), Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.

  4. Maintainability • The measure of the ability of an item to be retained in or restored to specified condition when maintenance is performed during the course of a specified mission profile (The mission-related system maintainability parameter.)1 1. MIL-STD-721

  5. Availability • A measure of the degree of a system which is in the operable and committable state at the start of mission when the mission is called for at an unknown random point in time1. 1. MIL-STD-721

  6. Availability • Inherent availability, Ai • Achieved availability, Aa • Operational availability, Ao 1. MIL-STD-721

  7. Modelling and Simulation Maintenance Configuration Availability Cost

  8. Availability Simulation How is a model built? It is built to represent the reliability and maintainability relationships between the items using RBDs Data sources are from engineering drawings and workshops with appropriate people What data is needed?

  9. Building an RBD

  10. Building an RBD

  11. Building an RBD

  12. Building an RBD

  13. Building an RBD

  14. Building an RBD

  15. Building an RBD

  16. Building an RBD

  17. Building an RBD

  18. Building an RBD

  19. Building an RBD

  20. Building an RBD

  21. Availability Simulation M1 M2 M3

  22. Availability Simulation 45 64 78 8 59 56 48 76 68 3 8 5 53 4 34 9 89 51 7 45

  23. Availability Simulation

  24. Availability Simulation

  25. Availability Simulation

  26. Availability Simulation

  27. Availability Simulation

  28. Availability Simulation

  29. Availability Simulation

  30. Availability Simulation

  31. Availability Simulation

  32. Availability Simulation

  33. Availability Simulation

  34. Availability Simulation • EG

  35. Availability Simulation

  36. Availability Simulation

  37. Availability Simulation

  38. Availability Simulation • Availability M1 – 92% • Availability M2 – 88% • Availability M3 – 83% • Repair man Utilisation 33% • Plant Availability 88%

  39. Questions • How many spares used? • Which machine caused the most downtime? • Are two repairmen required? • What about levels of repair? • Pro active versus reactive? • How is logistic support allowed for?

  40. Questions • Where and when is modelling used? • During design to meet requirements and gain financial sign off • During operating phase to determine maintenance and other support tactics • During end of life to determine disposal time and strategy

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