Hurricane Research in NOAA

1. Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

2. Vision • Significantly improve forecast guidance with modeling systems capturing range of natural variability in tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure with sufficientfidelity to predict rapid intensity changeswith minimal uncertainty. VTMAX ensembles 62nd IHC

3. Overarching Research • What physical processes limit predictability of track, intensity and structure? • Large scale wind and moisture structure and variability • Convection in vorticity-rich environment (VHT) • Air-sea exchange of momentum and enthalpy • Vortex dynamics and evolution (resiliency, mixing, VRW) • Upper ocean structure and mesoscale variability • Aerosols and microphysics • What is best way to represent natural variability of processes in model system? • Ensembles (multi-model, single model/multiple physics, /initial state, /resolutions, etc.) • Representation of physical processes • Resolution, domain size, and nesting • What is best mix of data for model initialization? 62nd IHC

4. HFIP • Unified NOAA approach to guide andaccelerate improvements in forecasts, with emphasis onrapid intensity change, and reduction inuncertainty. • Improve forecasts and increase confidence to enhance mitigation and preparedness decisions. • Responds to input from stakeholders, NSB, OFCM, and HIRWG reports. • Embraces strongcollaboration with non-NOAA partners with objective to transition research into operations. 62nd IHC

5. HFIP Research Thrusts VMAX <V> • Intensity and structure change, with emphasis on RI: processes that modulate internal storm dynamics and storm interactions with atmosphere and ocean; • Track: interactions between tropical cyclone and its environment through optimal use of observations; • Forecast Uncertainty: global and regional model ensembles to bound uncertainty and test predictability 62nd IHC

6. HFIP Components • Improve HFS/GFS to reduce error in track and intensity forecasts • Optimize new and existing observing systems to enhance research and operations capabilities and impacts • Expand forecast tools and applications to aid forecasters Understanding FF 62nd IHC

7. HFIP Objectives • Overlap with Table 5.1 with focus on transition to operations: • Guide and accelerate HFS improvements (HFS) • Develop observing system strategy analysis capability (OSE) • Fully fund transition ofresearch to operations (R2O) • Increase high performance computing (res & ops) • Coordinate with research community on basic research • NOAA cannot meet goals alone! • Broaden base of expertise in tropical cyclone research community • Work closely with federal, academic, and private sector communities 62nd IHC

8. OFCM TC Research Plan Table 5-1. Research Priorities in Atmospheric and Ocean Science • HFIP HFS B, B, R2O B, OSE B, B, 62nd IHC

9. OFCM TC Research Plan • HFIP R2O 62nd IHC

10. Questions?

11. Background Material

12. HFIP Leadership (HEOB) • The membership of the HFIP Executive Oversight Board (HEOB) includes: • NWS AA, Dr. John L. Hayes (Co-Chair) • OAR AA, Dr. Richard Spinrad (Co-Chair) • NESDIS AA, Ms. Mary Kicza • NOS AA, Mr. John H. Dunnigan • NMFS Senior Designee, Ms. Bonnie Ponwith • PPI AA, Dr. Paul Doremus (Acting) • NMAO, Director or Designee (TBD) • Director, NHC/NWS, Dr. Edward Rappaport (Acting) • Director, AOML/OAR, Dr. Robert Atlas • Director, NCEP/NWS, Dr. Louis Uccellini • Director, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Mr. Sam Williamson 62nd IHC

13. HFIP Team • Dr. Frank Marks and Dr. Ahsha Tribble were selected as the Project Lead and Deputy Project Lead, respectively. They formed a project team including: • Program Manager, Environmental Modeling Program: Mr. Fred Toepfer • Program Designee, Local Forecasts and Warnings: Mr. Scott Kiser • Program Manager, Science and Technology Infusion or designee: Dr. Chris Fairall • NESDIS Representative: Dr. Mark DeMaria • Hurricane Program Director, Aircraft Operations Center: Dr. Jim McFadden • Program Manager, NMAO Aircraft Services: RADM Phil Kenul • HWRF Program Manager and EMC Hurricane Lead: Dr. Naomi Surgi • OFCM/JAG/TCR representative: Mr. Mark Welshinger • ELDP Candidate (NWS): Mr. Mark McInerney • Executive Secretariat: NWS/Dr. Daniel Meléndez • OAR/Mr. Roger Pierce 62nd IHC

14. Scope of HFIP NSB Impacts on Engineered Structures HIRWG OFCM Modeling and Data Assimilation Observing Strategies and Observations T2O Critical mass HFIP Ecosystem Impacts Basic Process Research Storm Surge Uncertainty Rainfall and Inland Flooding Socio-Economic Impacts Operational Needs Forecasting Hurricane Modification Climate Interactions Preparedness and Response 14 62nd IHC

15. Significance of Rapid Intensity Change • Rapid intensity (RI) change (≥30 kt in 24 hours) has a significant impact on preparedness and evacuation actions for emergency managers • Greatest forecast challenge for hurricane forecasters • Not handled well by current operational models • High priority in HIRWG report and the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) • 83% of major hurricanes have at least 1 RI event • Major hurricanes are responsible for 80% of all hurricane damage • Linked to changes in storm structure and storm surge • Research and operational efforts necessary to improve forecasts of rapid intensity change will also improve intensity and track forecasts. 62nd IHC

16. HFIP Performance Metrics • Reduce average track error at Days 1 – 5 • Reduce average intensity error at Days 1 – 5 • Increase probability of detection (POD) for rapid intensity change for Days 1 – 5 • Decrease false alarm ratio (FAR) for rapid intensity change for Days 1 – 5 • Quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the forecast guidance 62nd IHC

17. Short Term Actions: Priorities and Payoffs High Resolution Model and Other Model Enhancements Technical staff with modeling and software engineering expertise R&D for HFS/GFS to demonstrate, using DOE HPC system, high resolution and ensemble prediction capability and address data assimilation challenges HFS/HWRF R&D and upgrades sustained Storm Surge Testbed Enhance HPC Capability NOAA R&D computing to support HFS/GFS development including software engineering Research to Operations (R20) Enhancements Increase funding for the JHT (includes staffing) Increase support for the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JSCDA) Targeted field programs and operational flights Broaden expertise and expand interaction with external community Establish a visiting scientist/Post Doc program Advisory committees, community workshops Permanent HFIP Staff and infrastructure PAYOFFS: Staffing and computing infrastructure established to evaluate potential model improvements Targeted high resolution and ensemble model research and development funded Demonstration completed on the impact of forecast performance using the high resolution model system on DOE system– decision point for NOAA HPC investment Upgrades to HFS/HWRF implemented operationally, and HFS/HWRF on a path to 4km resolution Storm surge testbed established Staff and infrastructure established for enhanced transition of research to operations Broaden community expertise through visiting scientists Involvement with external community for modeling R&D and development of forecast tools through JHT, DTC, and JCSDA 62nd IHC