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China Shifts Course

China Shifts Course . More sophisticated leadership; more confident Chinese public Hard power failure Asian financial crisis New Focus on Soft Power. Chinese Strategies. Focus on the developing world No ties to the Washington consensus Is China a model? Noninterference

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China Shifts Course

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  1. China Shifts Course • More sophisticated leadership; more confident Chinese public • Hard power failure • Asian financial crisis • New Focus on Soft Power

  2. Chinese Strategies • Focus on the developing world • No ties to the Washington consensus • Is China a model? • Noninterference • Born-again multilateralist • New rationales: Need for resources, need for markets • Recognition of the value of average people; reduce fears of China • Pragmatism; Cambodia and the Sam Rainsy Party

  3. Tools • More sophisticated development assistance – biggest donor in Philippines, Laos, Cambodia; approaching other donors in Africa. • Better public diplomacy; informal summitry for artists and writers, visitor programming, Chinese Peace Corps – promoting people-people contacts • More skilled formal diplomacy – Chinese ambassador does Larry King in Thailand • Supported by high-level diplomacy; multiple visits to Africa; Bush has not visited Africa in 2nd term • Outreach to ethnic Chinese in SE Asia; summer camps to discover your roots • Outmigration to northern SE Asia – the allure of China as a destination • China takes the trade lead; China becomes major investor

  4. Promotion of Chinese Language/ Culture • Confucius Institute project • Funding for Chinese in SE Asian primary schools • Scholarships to go on to study in China; 120,000 overseas students • Xinhua tie-ups with SE Asian papers; CCTV in SE Asia – CCTV promotes culture over politics

  5. Indicators of Chinese Success • Growing demand for Chinese culture and language studies • Polling data – warmth toward China, compared to fear of China in Southeast Asia in the 1990s. • Positive SE Asian, African media coverage of China • Much less criticism of China’s economic competitiveness; Asean-China FTA vs Thai-US FTA • Views of Southeast Asian Chinese • Exceptions; Singapore, Vietnam; countries still want US forces in the region as a balancer

  6. Policy Implications • Defense and economic cooperation – Philippines and China • A generation of SE Asian and African leaders studying in China, not the US, Japan, or the UK • China leads regional trade • China takes a larger role in mediation

  7. Questions • Will China’s growing influence becoming integrated with other players, or will it divide the community of donors and other powers? A permanent Chinese aid bureaucracy? • Will China truly understand popular politics abroad, or will it fail – and encourage protests like in Zambia? • Does China really have a model? And can noninterventionism survive?

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