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Update on the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project

Update on the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project. Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Kurt Unger CSES Climate Impacts Group Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington WA State Dept. of Ecology. Climate science in the public interest.

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Update on the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project

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  1. Update on the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project • Alan F. Hamlet • Marketa McGuire Elsner • Kurt Unger • CSES Climate Impacts Group • Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, • University of Washington • WA State Dept. of Ecology Climate science in the public interest

  2. The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project This 3-year research project (now in the final stages of completion) is designed to provide a comprehensive suite of 21st century hydroclimatological scenarios for the Columbia River basin and coastal drainages in OR and WA. Collaborative Partners: • WA State Dept. of Ecology (via HB 2860) • Bonneville Power Administration • Northwest Power and Conservation Council • Oregon Water Resources Department • BC Ministry of the Environment

  3. Project Goals and Objectives • Provide a wide range of products to address multiple stakeholder needs • Increase spatial and temporal resolution • Provide a large ensemble of climate scenarios to assess uncertainties • Address hydrologic extremes (e.g. Q100 and 7Q10) 297 Streamflow Sites

  4. CBCCSP Research Team Lara Whitely Binder Pablo Carrasco Jeff Deems Marketa McGuire Elsner Alan F. Hamlet Carrie Lee Se-Yeun Lee Dennis P. Lettenmaier Jeremy Littell Guillaume Mauger Nate Mantua Ed Miles Kristian Mickelson Philip W. Mote Rob Norheim Erin Rogers Eric Salathé Amy Snover Ingrid Tohver Andy Wood http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/products/sites/r7climate/study_report/CBCCSP_chap1_intro_final.pdf

  5. Overview of Scenarios

  6. Climate Change Scenarios IPCC AR 4 Emissions Scenarios: A1B Medium High B1 Low Figure shows change compared with 1970 - 1999 average Mote and Salathé, Climate Impacts Group 2009, WA Assessment, Ch. 1 http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml

  7. Seasonal Precipitation Changes for the Pacific Northwest 2020s 2040s 2080s http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciach1scenarios642.pdf

  8. Available PNW Scenarios 2020s – mean 2010-2039; 2040s – mean 2030-2059; 2080s – mean 2070-2099

  9. Website Updates

  10. http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/

  11. Overview of Hydrologic Products

  12. Hydrologic Products http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/

  13. Changing Watershed Classifications: Transformation From Snow to Rain * Based on Composite Delta Method scenarios (multimodel average change in T & P) Map: Rob Norheim

  14. Snowmelt-Dominant Basins: Snake River at Milner

  15. SWE Streamflow

  16. Changes in Hydrologic Extremes

  17. 2040s Changes in Natural Flood RiskBoise River at Boise B1 A1B 10 Member Ensemble Using the Hybrid Delta Downscaling Approach Historical

  18. Who’s Using the Data? Study results (which currently are in final form) are already being used and evaluated by a wide range of stakeholders including: • USGS • WA Dept of Ecology/WSU (HB 2860) • Bonneville Power Administration • U.S. Bureau of Reclamation • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers • U.S. Forest Service • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service • Boise Aquatic Research Laboratory • National Marine Fisheries Science Center

  19. Project Extensions

  20. Extended Products for the Western U.S. The approach has been extended to additional western US watersheds in partnership with: • US Forest Service • US Fish and Wildlife Service • Boise Aquatic Sciences Lab • Trout Unlimited

  21. Regional Climate Modeling at CIG • WRF Model (NOAH LSM) 36 to 12 km • ECHAM5 forcing • CCSM3 forcing (A1B and A2 scenarios) • HadRM 25 km • HadCM3 forcing

  22. Extreme Precipitation from RCM Simulations Change from 1970-2000 to 2030-2060 in the percentage of total precipitation occurring when daily precipitation exceeds the 20th century 95th percentile larger increase on windward slopes of Cascades, Columbia basin small increase or decrease along Cascade crest http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciach2rcm643.pdf

  23. Ongoing Support for PNW Stakeholders and Water Professionals: • Meetings and Workshops • Webinars • Short Courses • Targeted Research Projects

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