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18-Month Outlook October 2003 - March 2005

This presentation outlines the demand forecast, resource assessment, and transmission assessment for IMO's latest 18-Month Outlook. It compares inputs, presents results, and provides insights into the market rules and methodology used. The Outlook covers October 2003 - March 2005 and is available on the IMO website.

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18-Month Outlook October 2003 - March 2005

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  1. 18-Month OutlookOctober 2003 - March 2005 Presented byGreg Hine IMO Long-Term Forecasts and Assessments

  2. Presentation Outline • Introduction • Demand forecast • Resource assessment • Transmission assessment Inputs Comparisons Results

  3. Separate Presentations • This presentation focuses on specific Outlook inputs, comparisons with previous Outlooks and results • Another presentation focuses on the market rules, market manuals and the methodology to complete demand forecast, resource assessment and transmission assessment

  4. Introduction • IMO’s latest 18-Month Outlook covers October 2003 - March 2005 • published September 24, 2003 @ www.theIMO.com • four documents on IMO web-site: • 18-Month Outlook (main document) • 18-Month Demand Forecast • Outlook Methodology • Ontario Transmission System • spreadsheet tables

  5. Demand

  6. Demand Forecast • actual load, weather , economic data through to the end of June 2003 • impact of new data captures the latest relative sensitivity and relationships between load and weather • Forecast of economic variables as of July 2003

  7. Variable Impact on Daily Peak Demand • Temperature >16 C +1C +380 MW • Temperature <10C -1C +110 MW • Wind Summer -1km/h +10 MW • Wind Winter +1km/h +10 MW • Christmas Day -4700 MW • Monday vs. Sunday +2000 MW

  8. Data Impact on Model • System increasingly sensitive to high temperatures • but rate of increase is slowing • System continues to be less sensitive to low temperatures • but rate of decrease is slowing • Level of economic activity is having a smaller impact on demand • due to shifting demand to off-peak times • growth non-energy intensive sector of the economy • Applies to both peak and energy demand

  9. Economic Outlook • Outlook for the Ontario economy positive but lower than the forecast in the previous 18-Month Outlook • World economic climate • Sluggish U.S. recovery • Economic data mixed • Risk to the forecast is mostly on the “downside”

  10. Changes to the Forecast2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (monthly)

  11. Changes to the Peak Forecast 2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (weekly)

  12. Weekly Peak DemandsActual & Forecast

  13. Weekly Peak DemandsActual & Forecast

  14. Weather ScenariosNovember to March

  15. Weather Scenarios & 2001-02November to March

  16. Weather Scenarios & 2002-03November to March

  17. Forecast Demands

  18. Resources

  19. Existing Resources: Total * Bruce “A” units not included

  20. New Generation Projects (in Outlook period and currently under construction) • No additional Pickering A units are scheduled to be returned to service during the Outlook period.

  21. Existing Resource Scenario all existing resources one Pickering-A unit is included no new generation project additions 0 MW of price sensitive demand Planned Resource Scenario all existing resourcesone Pickering-A unit is included new generation project additions 300 MW of price sensitive demand Resource Scenarios

  22. Polling Question • On average what level of resources do you expect will materialize over the next 18 months? • (a) less than assumed under ERS • (b) about the same as assumed under ERS • (c ) more than ERS, but less than PRS • (d) about the same as assumed under PRS • (e) more than assumed under PRS

  23. Available and Required ResourcesExisting Resource Scenario Ontario Market Demand (Normal Weather)

  24. Available and Required ResourcesPlanned Resource Scenario Ontario Market Demand (Normal Weather)

  25. Reserve Margins: Planned Resource Scenario Ontario Market Demand (Normal Weather)

  26. Reserve Margins: Existing Resource Scenario andPlanned Resource Scenario Ontario Market Demand (Normal Weather)

  27. Reserve Margins: Extreme Weather Existing Resource Scenario andPlanned Resource Scenario Ontario Market Demand (Normal Weather) Extreme weather is not expected every week

  28. Sources of Risk • Demand uncertainty (RR) • Forced outage rate of resources (RR) • New generation projects coming into service (ERS, PRS) • Return of generators from planned outage (ERS, PRS, +) • Hydroelectric resource utilization (RR,+) • Extreme weather impact (separate scenarios,+)

  29. Transmission

  30. Transmission • Some outages impact internal and inter-tie limits (appendix C of main document) • Windsor, Toronto and Thunder Bay reactive supply

  31. Overall Conclusions

  32. End of presentation

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