Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning

1. Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning J.H. Kwakkel, W.E. Walker, V.A.W.J. Marchau 15 October 2008

2. Outline • Traditional airport strategic planning • Problems with traditional airport strategic planning • A synthesized approach for adaptive airport strategic planning (AASP) • An illustration of AASP based on Schiphol • Conclusions

3. Problems with traditional airport strategic planningwhy Master Planning fails • The default approach to airport strategic planning is Master Planning: • Forecast aviation demand • Assess whether the airport can accommodate this demand • Design capacity expansions if necessary • Problems: • Often only a single or few forecasts used • Based only on aviation demand • The resulting Master Plan is static • Results: • Airport design is not adequate to accommodate actual demand • Plan is unable to be implemented • Response to unanticipated events is made in an ad-hoc manner

4. Problems with traditional airport strategic planningcriteria for a new planning approach • The planning approach should consider many different types of uncertainties, in addition to demand uncertainties • The planning approach should consider many different plausible futures • The resulting plan should be robust across the different futures • The resulting plan should be flexible.

5. Adaptive Airport Strategic Planninga synthesized approach • Key ideas found in literature • Real options • Adaptive planning process and framework • Proactive planning • Synthesized approach is based on: • Determining a set of goals • Assembling a basic policy and identifying conditions for success • Identifying the policy’s vulnerabilities and opportunities, and ways of protecting or improving it • Monitoring progress towards the goals • Adapting the policy as conditions change

6. Adaptive Airport Strategic Planningan illustration based on Schiphol • Schiphol has grown rapidly over the past 15 years • Now: Major hub in Europe • But: • Significant uncertainties in aviation industry • KLM-Air France merger • Competition among airports in Europe • Severe noise complaints • Accessibility is decreasing • Planning for Schiphol’s long-term development is a challenge

7. Adaptive Airport Strategic Planningstep I and step II: stage setting and the basic policy • Stage Setting: • Objective: accommodate growth and minimize the negative effects of aviation in the region • Policy options: new runway or terminal, move part of operations elsewhere, change usage of the existing runways, add noise insulation • Basic Policy: • Immediately implement plans to improve the efficiency of runway usage and reduce noise impacts • Immediately add noise insulation to surrounding residences • Develop plans for a new runway and new terminal, but don’t implement the plans now

8. Adaptive Airport Strategic Planningstep I and step II: stage setting and the basic policy • Success conditions: • Demand should continue to grow • Population affected by noise and the number of noise complaints should not increase • Schiphol’s landside accessibility should not deteriorate

9. Adaptive Airport Strategic Planningstep III: actions taken immediately to protect the basic policy • Vulnerability 1: Demand should continue to grow • Shaping action: advertise for flying from Schiphol • Mitigating action: prepare plan to move charter operations to Lelystad • Vulnerability 2: Population affected by noise and noise complaints should not increase • Hedging action: test noise abatement procedures outside peak periods • Shaping action: change the public’s perception by branding Schiphol as an environmentally friendly airport • Vulnerability 3: Landside accessibility should not deteriorate • Mitigating action: develop an early check-in and baggage handling system at rail stations • Shaping Action: invest in R&D into the accessibility of the Schiphol area

10. Adaptive Airport Strategic Planningstep IV: future actions to protect the basic policy • Monitoring Action 1: Monitor demand in terms of aircraft, passengers, and cargo, and the transfer rate • Demand increases faster than expected: • Capitalizing Action: implement capacity expansions • Demand increases slower than expected • Defensive action: diversify the carriers that fly from Schiphol • Corrective Action: cancel capacity expansions • Demand breaks down or explodes • Reassess (no protection possible)

11. Adaptive Airport Strategic Planningstep IV: future actions to protect the basic policy • Monitoring Action 2: Monitor developments in the Schiphol region in terms of noise complaints and population affected by noise • More noise complaints or population affected by noise than expected: • Defensive action: increase branding, increase insulation program • Corrective Action: limit the available slots • Fewer noise complaints or population affected than expected: • Capitalizing action: increase the number of available slots

12. Adaptive Airport Strategic Planningstep V: implementation • Implement the basic policy and mitigating, hedging, seizing, and shaping actions • Implement a monitoring system and start collecting signpost data • In case of a trigger event, take prespecified action (defensive, corrective, capitalizing, or reassessment): • e.g., in case of faster growth in demand than expected, move charter operations to Lelystad • e.g., in case of increasing noise complaints, reduce slots, expand branding and marketing

13. Conclusions • Airport Master Planning is inadequate for dealing with the many uncertainties airports are facing • Limited number of uncertainties are considered • For each uncertainty, only a small range is considered • Master Plan is static • Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning (AASP) synthesizes several innovative ideas for the treatment of uncertainty • Many diverse uncertainties are considered • For each uncertainty, a wide range can be considered • AASP results in a flexible plan • In particular, AASP prepares airports better for the unknown future