FUTURE GENERATION in association with Waverley Management Consultants Brian Brader Alister Wilson

1. FUTURE GENERATIONin association with Waverley Management ConsultantsBrian BraderAlister Wilson Strategic Futures Coaching National Council for Higher Education Valletta, Malta 27th July 2007 Brian.brader@btinternet.com Mob: +44(0)7786 180923

2. FUTURE GENERATION Admin. issues • Emergencies • Facilities • Phones

3. FUTURE GENERATION AGENDA • 9.30 What is strategic futures analysis? • 10.00 Introduction to scenario planning • 10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? • 11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education • 11.30 Coffee

4. FUTURE GENERATION AGENDA cont’d • 11.45 Group activity: creating scenarios • 12.30 LUNCH • 13.15 Working with scenarios • 14.00 The scenario toolkit • 14.15 Closing discussion • 14.30 Close

5. FUTURE GENERATION What is Strategic Futures Analysis?

6. FUTURE GENERATION Characteristics • Structured, evidence-based process • Wide range of analytical tools • Resilient and innovative strategies • Neutral space for challenge • Encourages broader dialogue

7. Evidence and Analysis to….. Future a “Safe place” for challenging strategic conversation Prioritisation for business intelligence, Contingency trigger points Test strategic assumptions Core analysis on certainties ID of priority uncertainties FUTURE GENERATION ….resilient and innovative strategy Resilient and innovative strategic plans

8. FUTURE GENERATION How to get relevant evidence (1) Horizon scanning is…… Beyond a single future to Implications for today’s decisions Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales Looking across – beyond usual sources Seeing things - you don’t normally see

9. FUTURE GENERATION How to get relevant evidence (2) Drivers of change: • Social • Technological • Economic • Environmental • Political

10. FUTURE GENERATION How to get relevant evidence (3) the current and near future. Many of the drivers shaping the near future are already locked into place and are visible - even if we sometimes still have to make sense of them Horizon 1: looking towards a further out future. Current trends are beginning to shape it, but its exact form is not yet clear. We have to look harder to find the signals - but trends are beginning to emerge Horizon 2: the distant future. There are no discernable patterns and it is very difficult separate signals from background noise. Horizon 3: Importance (visibility) The lens of now Time V

11. FUTURE GENERATION The journey • Purpose and context • Senior sponsor • Gathering evidence • Analysis • Communication • Decision support External input

12. FUTURE GENERATION Combatting short-termism In order to combat the short-term nature of the political cycle, there is a need for horizon scanning to be embedded into the policy making process UK House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee 2006

13. FUTURE GENERATION The UK Horizon Scanning Centre - Aims • Strategic context • Synergy • Capacity building • WIST

14. FUTURE GENERATION UK Horizon Scanning Centre – Products • Sigma & Delta scans • Projects (S&T trends, ATF, Identity management) • Strategic Futures Coaching • Strategic Futures Networking (FAN Club)

15. FUTURE GENERATION Analytical toolkit • Systems mapping • Scenarios • Wind-tunnelling • Force field analysis

16. FUTURE GENERATION Be realistic…

17. FUTURE GENERATION Questions?

18. FUTURE GENERATION AGENDA 9.30 What is strategic futures analysis? 10.00 Introduction to scenario planning 10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? 11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education 11.30 Coffee

19. FUTURE GENERATION Scenarios…? • Stories that describe how the world might look in the future • what’s different from today • what we need to do to be successful • Based on an analysis of what’s driving change • Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated • Not predictions or forecasts • Help decision makers imagine and manage the future better • identify what’s in their control • identify what isn’t • identify what needs to change to ensure future success • Simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world

20. Driving Forces Driving Forces Contextual Environment Sector Environment internal environment Technological Economic Environmental Political Societal

21. FUTURE GENERATION Building Scenarios…?

22. FUTURE GENERATION AGENDA 9.30 What is strategic futures analysis? 10.00 Introduction to scenario planning 10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education? 11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education 11.30 Coffee

23. FUTURE GENERATION Sources… • Leadership Foundation scenario workshops • Strategic Priorities for the UK (PMSU) • Long Term Opportunities and Challenges for the UK (HMT) • The Futures Project (Scottish Executive) • Empirical observation

24. Societal Rising expectations Rising attainment Emergence of the ethical economy …and increasing in developing economies An empowered ageing population More single households A widening gender gap …and an ageing crisis Global economic migration Under 20s declining in the UK

25. Technological Changing work and work places Mobile computing Wireless cities Changing business models Changing decision making Lots of information Rise of the technologically superior learner MySpace AIM Blogs You Tube Second Life Skype

26. Economic Increasing value of knowledge Importance of soft skills Globalisation Open source and distributed manufacturing Mobile investment Labour mobility Co-opetition End of Doha? China …and America The economics of scarcity or of plenty? Rising dependency ratio Slow or rapid transition to retirement

27. Environmental Carbon neutral consumption Pressure to halt global warming Oil depletion Water Wars Growth within environmental limits? Quest for sustainability Carbon credits? Biofuels? Right to mobility?

28. Political Public service reform and competitiveness Self improving public services Rise of non state actors Evolution of the EU Step change in customer care Culture change Policy divergence since devolution Contract between state and citizen Single Issue everything e-Democracy Competing demands Nanny state or light touch?

29. FUTURE GENERATION FINAL DISCUSSION

30. FUTURE GENERATION • Understanding context of strategic futures analysis • Gathering evidence • Analysis tools • Using the output to improve strategy

31. FUTURE GENERATION • Building scenarios • Key drivers of change • Uncertainties • Select key variables • Write the stories

32. FUTURE GENERATION • Using scenarios • Create dialogue • Identify research goals • Identify choices • Define strategy

33. FUTURE GENERATION Resources: Sigma scan: www.sigmascan.org Delta scan: www.deltascan.org UK Horizon scanning centre : www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE/index.html Strategic futures analysis tool-kit : www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE/Good_Practice/Toolkit/Toolkit.html UK Department for Transport scenario planning tool-kit (produced by Waverley Management consultants): www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/scienceresearch/futures/secsceniss/?version=1 • Continue the futures journey!