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Historic Political Tools

Historic Political Tools. The Role of Violence, Coups and Revolutions. History doesn’t stay in the past Elite groups endure; hard to displace; possible Applies to governing instruments too Tools used to take and use power Interested in violence, coups and revolutions

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Historic Political Tools

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  1. Historic Political Tools The Role of Violence, Coups and Revolutions

  2. History doesn’t stay in the past • Elite groups endure; hard to displace; possible • Applies to governing instruments too • Tools used to take and use power • Interested in violence, coups and revolutions • Think of bad, old movies set in LA

  3. Violence • Coercive force • Especially associated with authoritarian rule • Unaccountable to public • Unrestrained by law • Characterizes much of LA’s history

  4. Coup • Coup d'état = golpe de estado • Military force used to change govt • Five models • Historic • Personal • Could turn into personal dictatorships • Institutional

  5. Bureaucratic Authoritarian: • Institutional and transformational • Emerging: Ecuador, 2000; Honduras, 2009 • Military takes power but hands over to civilians immediately • Reform coup • Brazil-1889; Venezuela-1945, 1957, 1992; Peru-1968 • Counter-coup • Coup against coupsters

  6. What recent model suggests • Civil elites pass buck to soldiers • Soldiers break impasse among civvies • Civil unrest still worries soldiers • But mil-gov not practical now hand-back • Remember about military as elite • Some places more than others

  7. Last question: Why mil-gov not useful? • When: post-Bureaucratic Authoritarian • Why: Extreme levels of violence + poor economic management • Even in Chile; disastrous in Argentina • Arg mil stayed on sidelines in 2001-2 collapse • People are poisoned! • Post-Cold War: Utility declines

  8. Revolutions • Broadest: Armed overthrow of government; so includes golpes • Narrower: Armed overthrow of govt that produces long term changes • New elite or new forces join elite • New policies • New groups admitted to citizenship • Examples: English Revo, 1689; American Revo, 1775-83; LA independence

  9. Narrowest: Social Revolution: Armed overthrow of govt that brings long-term changes to govtand produces major social changes • Hierarchy of power and prestige • Examples: France, 1789; Mexico, 1910; Russia, 1917; China, 1949, Cuba, 1959 • Preferred usage in PoliSci and SocSci

  10. Peaceful revolutions? Possible • Successful: Post- Communist Eastern/Central Europe • Failed: Guatemala, 1944-54; Chile, 1970-73 • Early days yet: Venezuela, 1998 • Look at Mexico, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua

  11. Mexico, 1910 • What happened • PorfirioDíaz, Francisco Madero, Pancho Villa, Emiliano Zapata, etc. • Nationalist & reformist • Constitution of 1917 • Ten violent years + 10 more before stability • 1929: PNRPRMPRI

  12. Outcomes • More national control of economy • Rise of a Mexican middle class • Sometimes called last bourgeois revolution • Significant economic development, 1930s-70s • Has stuck, though much changed • Many in PoliSci say it isn’t a social revo • Peasants and workers still excluded • Cf. France, 1789

  13. Bolivia, 1952-1964 • What happened • MNR, COB, Victor Paz Estenssoro, los indigenas – the Indian majority • Nationalize mines; end semi-feudal servitude for indigenous; land reform • Nationalist revolution • But armed peasants and workers

  14. Soon encountered economic dificulties • Divisions within the MNR • A move to the right under pressure from Washington • By 1964 falls to a golpemilitar • Had aspects of a social revolution • Couldn’t consolidate political side

  15. Cuba, 1959- • Last Spanish colony • Then US neo-colony • Little democracy; much dictatorship • Important: Guerrilla insurgency • Guerrilla – military strategy • Guerrilla – political strategy • First guerrilla insurgency to take power in LA

  16. Lots of imitators over next 30 years • Cuba special: very brief insurgency: 3 yrs • Nicaragua: 18 yrs; China: 22 yrs • Cuba special 2: New Socialist Man • Pursued from ‘59 to Fidel’s illness, 2006 • Culture/values > economics: Marxist? • Now changing under Raúl: Chinese or Vietnamese model: communist capitalism

  17. Nicaragua, 1979-1990 • Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional, FSLN • Guerrilla: 1961-79 • Fought Somozas • Split in ‘77 among three “tendencies” • Reunitedform 9-man National Directorate • Won with multi-class alliance; many radical Christians

  18. Governing Junta, 1979-84 • Elections, mainly clean, 1984: FSLN wins • Daniel Ortega president; power shifts from 9 to him • Counterinsurgent war, 1981-90 • Elections, ‘90, FSLN loses big; goes into opposition

  19. Sandinistas important for two reasons • Multi-class alliance brings victory; not just peasants and workers • Accept electoral loss; not a vanguard party with a dictatorship of the proletariat

  20. Revolutions in retrospect • Mexico’s stuck best, then Cuba’s; Nica and Bolivia bring up the rear • All sought to remake society • Mexico had most luck, then Cuba • Had to be political revolutions, too

  21. Violence in retrospect • Any government can use violence • Authoritarian, non-democratic, govts most prone to do so. Why? • Unaccountable and opaque • Won’t leave power if they don’t want to • Problem in LA (elsewhere, too) • Long non-democratic history makes force still look like the best answer.

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