Challenges of statistics on international migration in the CIS region

1. High-level seminar on population censuses and statistics of migration in the CIS countries UNECE, Federal State Statistics Service of Russia Gelendzhik, 16-18 October 2013 Challenges of statistics on international migration in the CIS region Olga Chudinovskikh, Lomonosov Moscow State University / Higher School of economics

2. Overview • Positive trends of the latest decade • Peculiarities of migration in the CIS region and its reflection in statistics • Producers and main types of data – a system, but not separate elements • Main challenges in the sphere of statistics on migration through the prism of statistics on permanent-type and temporary labour migration • Concluding remarks

3. Positive trends of the last decade • Development of migration modules in the questionnaires used at the recent censuses • Every country has agencies that collect almost all types of data related to migration (level of development and interactions may differ) • More sources are involved into data processing and exchange at the national level (depending on financial support and political will of data producers). • More data are published , access to statistics becomes easier (including microdata). Diversification of published statistics. • Development of mutual understanding between national statistical agencies and administrative bodies collecting data on migration and related events

4. Producers of migration (and related events) data at the national level in the CIS states National statistical agency Agencies responsible for populaiton registration, migration and citizenship Data for statistics of flows “Current” registration of flows Data on labourmigration • Work permits • Asylum • Residence permits • Citizenship • Administrative practices ets. Data on refugees and IDPs Data on repatriants Censuses Data on entries and exits by countries, purposes and types of transport Border service Labour force and living standards surveys Ministry of education Foreign students: enrollment, stock and graduates Other agencies MFA Visa statistics, Citizenship Data on registrations in consulates

5. Personal experience: an attempt to analyze a general image of migration process in the CIS region • Data that were the subject of analysis characterized • 1) permanent-type migration – • censuses of the recent round • annual (current) statistics of flows • 2) labour migration (mainly temporary), Including available data of different surveys, censuses , administrative data of migration authorities and expert estimates

6. What did the recent censuses show? • Dramatic decrease of population born in the European part of the former USSR, mainly these people represent “old” generations. • Considerable increase of population born in the Central Asian region (mainly – of working ages) • “Foreign born” population step by step started to represent real international migration (not “statistical” foreign born that was counted right after the breakdown of the USSR). • People born in a certain country and having its citizenship differ by country and comparing to each other. • Some examples:

7. Dynamics of stocks of foreign born in Russia by country of birth (times)

8. Dynamics of stocks of foreign born in Kazakhstan by country of birth (times)

9. Dynamics of foreign population in Kazakhstan and Russia between the censuses of 2000 and 2010 rounds (times)

10. BelarusBorn Citizens

11. TajikistanBorn Citizens

12. TurkeyBorn Citizens

13. What did analysis of flows data show? CIS area is not a homogeneous migration space Migration is very selective • Millions of people residing in CIS are involved into migrations and the biggest part of movements takes place within the region: about 92% of immigrants come from / and 75% of emigrants go to another CIS country, • Russia is the main destination country both for long-term and temporary migrants from the other CIS states. In 2000-2011 it has positive net-migration with all CIS countries (except Belarus). • After the breakdown of the USSR migration ties between some of the former soviet republics (excluding Russia) weakened dramatically ( for example, Ukraine – Central Asia, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan-Tajikistan, Turkmenistan - all the other countries);

14. Prevalence of movement within the area (permanent type migration) 2000-2010 % of immigrants from / emigrants to the other CIS state

15. Permanent Net Migration in CIS countries, 2000-2010 (in 1000’s)

16. Implementation of “mirror” statistics sometimes is not successful without knowledge of methodology changes and practices of data collection

17. Discrepancies in data on flows lead to a statistical phenomenon – pairs of countries have positive net migration in mutual migration exchange (Ukraine, Belarus and Russia)

18. Temporary labour migration in the CIS area: Main characteristics • “Asymmetry” of roles: mainly sending or mainly receiving states • Major part of workers move to the RF and partially – to Kazakhstan , migrants from the European countries of the CIS much more often chose the countries of the other part of the world. • Most part of migrants are undocumented • Temporary forms are prevailing • Migrant-workers in Russia and Belarus mainly come from the CIS area, while the other countries invite skilled workers from the other part of the world. (CIS: RF > 90%, RB – 40%, Ukraine – 30%, RT and AzR – about 10%) • CIS nationals are rare among highly skilled workers (in the RF- 7-8% )

19. Временная трудовая миграция: разброс оценок и малая сопоставимость данных стран-партнеров

20. Compilation of data from different sources may show the scale of irregular labour migration Survey data (Kyrgyzstan) on absent population compared with the Federal Migr. Service of Russia data on issued work permits Migration cards (Tajikistan) and FMS data on issued work permits

21. IT development = growing importance of administrative data • Alternatives to traditional “statistical” data sources (data on residence permits can partly substitute statistics of immigration flows) • Admin. Data on work permits can be the main (if not the only) source of information on labour migration

22. Caution: fluctuations in admin. data should be treated with care. Temporary residence permits issued in Russia (thousand) Rapid increase in numbers for RK and KR are caused by the changes in legislation on citizenship. Before 2011 these migrants could apply for the RF citizenship without any additional status and did not need residence permit

23. Is it possible to harmonize definitions and methodologies in statistics of migration ? • Seems to not realistic so far • Even annual statistics of flows shows considerable discrepancies • Solution: comprehensive metadata • Competent users • An intermediary agency that collects, harmonizes and publishes data from different states

24. A deadlock or a stimulus for joint efforts? • Political decisions are usually based on data produced by national stat. agency • If data are not good or interpreted incorrectly - decisions are not efficient • Since the ties in the CIS area are still rather close, policy of a country is not indifferent to the neighbours • Conclusion - Вывод – статистика миграции не имеет границ, и должна восприниматься как «своя» , вне зависимости от страны , где произведена

25. Concluding remarksWhat can we do? • Statistics of flows - use e-format instead of paper carriers • Censuses – questions about absent population should not limit time of absence (up to 5 hears) • Surveys - to conduct sample surveys in the CIS area simultaneously or without considerable time interval, harmonized methodology and questionnaires, to create a joint database • Diversification of data sources, involvement of administrative data related to migration and its consequences • Methodology: revision of recommendation is necessary • Coordination of efforts in the region via a respected agency with international (regional) mandate . • ! To treat sources and data as a system, not as separate elements

26. Благодарю за внимание! • Thank you for your attention!

27. Распределение мигрантов, зарегистрированных по месту пребывания , по срокам