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Operationalising an indicator system Demography

Operationalising an indicator system Demography. Peter Schmitt – Alexandre Dubois Nordregio. VASAB WG1 meeting 25th June, 2007 Riga. Demography - ”desired” data sets . ”general” demographic trends migration future demographic trends (”forecasts”). 1) ”general” demographic trends.

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Operationalising an indicator system Demography

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  1. Operationalising an indicator systemDemography Peter Schmitt – Alexandre Dubois Nordregio VASAB WG1 meeting 25th June, 2007 Riga

  2. Demography - ”desired” data sets • ”general” demographic trends • migration • future demographic trends (”forecasts”)

  3. 1) ”general” demographic trends • overall evolution, fertility/mortality rates • age groups (in 5-years intervalls, 0-4, 5-9 etc.) • geographic level: NUTS 5 (!) • time span 1995 – latest available • some data are available at Nordregio ( 1995-2001, cf. Hanell/Neubauer 2005) • CSD will be asked if an update of such data is desired or if the existing studies should be used

  4. 2) migration • - here calculation of the migratory balance( total population change minus natural population change) • identifying the winners/losers (at NUTS 3 if possible) • But: we need additional qualitative information to safeguard the findings: •  What’s about international migration (origins/destinations specifically within the BSR/EU) • - National experts are asked to draft a synthesis report on the national and international migration patterns and their impact on regional development in their countries

  5. Source: ESPON 114, MAP 3.12, p. 105

  6. 3) future demographic trends (”forecasts”) • Very complicated issue – what is the (political) focus here? • Possibility 1: “demographic evolution and replacement migration”  depopulation/ageing (done within ESPON 114  two variants: with and without migration, also at NUTS 2) •  Russia/Belarus: Experts should consider if they could provide us with some insights according to ESPON 114, Annex, B, chapter 5; to be found at: www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/projects/259/651/file_1198/fr-1.1.4-full.pdf • Possibility 2: a rough overview that leads to a qualitative assessment of forecasted trends at hand in the different countries related to some key questions (Nordregio will come up by mid-August. with a proposal what kind of key questions could be tackled here). In the meantime the national experts are asked to check/assess what kind of forecasts are available at the national or even regional level). • Possibility 3: (bases on no. 2): writing narratives on scenarios building: ”What if…?” (see ESPON 3.4, Vol. 3, pp. 19-31 for inspiration) (will be considered again at a later stage of the project)

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