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Climate change challenges for the mining industry

Climate change challenges for the mining industry. Claude Villeneuve Professor Département des sciences fondamentales Université du Québec à Chicoutimi Iamgold workshop Chicoutimi Sept 17, 2012. Towards an uncertain future.

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Climate change challenges for the mining industry

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  1. Climate changechallenges for the miningindustry • Claude Villeneuve • Professor • Département des sciences fondamentales • Université du Québec à Chicoutimi • Iamgold workshop Chicoutimi Sept 17, 2012

  2. Towards an uncertain future • In the last fortyyears, science made the generaldeterioration of the global environment an undisputableevidence. • It threatensmankind’sability to keepdeveloping on the samepath • Biodiversitylosses • Climate change • Ozone depletion • Ocean acidification • Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles acceleration • Freshwateravailability and quality Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  3. Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  4. Economicgrowth and energy Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  5. World primaryenergy sources Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewableenergy sources Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  6. Keepgrowing! Source http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  7. Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  8. Sources of anthropogenic GHG(Source: GIEC, GT3, 2007) Émissions anthropiques en 2007- 29 Gt CO2éq Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  9. Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  10. Source IPCC 2007

  11. Source IPCC 2007

  12. Global meantemperature trends Source IPCC 2007 Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  13. Source NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif (février 2010) Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  14. Global warming 'confirmed' by independent study (20/10/11) Source:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15373071 Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  15. Uneven changes Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  16. Forecast? Source IPCC 2007 Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  17. 2010-2030par rapport à 1975-1995 2040-2060par rapport à 1975-1995 2080-2100par rapport à 1975-1995 Future climate MeantemperatureCanadian GCM[scénario IS92a (2xCO2in 2065)] (Service météorologique du Canada, Environnement Canada) 2020 2050 2090 1,5xCO2 2xCO2 • Actuallyitis the most probable scenario given: • Fossil fuels availability • International trade trends and incapacity to obtain a climate agreement 3xCO2 Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  18. Atmospheric water carryingcapacity High energyatmosphere Lowenergyatmosphere 9 000 m3 48 000 m3 304 000 m3 + 30 0c - 20 0c 0 0 c

  19. New climateevent occurrence Source IPCC 2012

  20. Dry future Consecutuve dry daysSoildryness anomalies Source IPCC 2012

  21. Wet future? • The degree of confidence in predictingheavyrainfalls or extremeclimaticeventsis far lessthanprediction of dryness. • Althoughtheseevents are local and statisticallymuch harder to predict on large scale (territory, timeframe), the climate science isnow able to predict an increased occurrence for both types of extreme • See: IPCC 2012, Managing the risks of estremeevents and disasters to advanceclimate change adaptation

  22. A new occurrence for climateextremes Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  23. Climate change evidence • Ice surface and volume • Permafrost surface • Ocean surface acidification • Sealevelrise

  24. Arcticseaice Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  25. Trends August 2012 has been the smallestiArticicecovereversincesatellital observations (NASA-GISS) Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  26. Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  27. Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  28. Permafrost surface Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  29. Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  30. Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  31. Upcoming global warming « Wealready have in bank a 2,4˚C global warming in the XXIstcenturyevenwith the mostambitious GHG reduction programs, itisunavoidable. » . (Ramanhatan, V et Y. Feng (2008) On avoidingdangerousanthropogenicinterferencewith the climate system: Formidable challenge ahead PNAS, 105:58:14245-14250 « The Copenhagen accord is not going to influence significantly the GHG emission patterns towards 2020 » OECD Environmental trends, 2012 Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  32. Most recentforecast Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  33. A closer look for 2030 Source: Lean, J. and Rind, D, 2009, How will surface tempretaure change in the future decades, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L15708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038932,. Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  34. Outcomes? • Higher variability and weather extremes («wild weather») • Higher temperature means • Accelerated ice and permafrost melting • Sea level rise • Water cycle perturbations (flash floods, drought) • Change in seasonal behavior and migration of animals and plants Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  35. Growth? • We are 7 billion people sinceOctober 2011 • More thanhalf are city dwellerssince 2008 and the proportion keepsgrowing • One more billion willaddtowards 2025 and anotherbefore 2050 • 20% of the poorestshare 2% of the total wealth • To reach OECD level by 2050, the WDP shouldincrease 15 fold ans 40 fold for 2100 (Jackson 2009) Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  36. Energy transition? Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewableenergy sources Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  37. Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewableenergy sources Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  38. What’s up, Doc? • Global warming, sealevelrise and climateextremeswill impact world’seconomy in an impredictableway. • Agriculture • Forests • Transportation • Real estate • Tourism • Energy • Trade • Investment Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  39. Key concepts Source: IPCC, 2012

  40. Mining • An energy intensive sector • Lowermineral content of new mines • Remote locations • Global markets • Miningoccursundermostclimate conditions all over the world and may have important environmental impacts depending on site sensitivity • Life cycle of metalsgreatly varies in carbonintensity but generally, extraction is not the most important contributor Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  41. Gold? • In gold mining, emissions varies greatlydependingupon ore concentration, mine location and mining technologies • Iamgoldemissionsraisedfrom 170 kg/troyounce in 2008 to 280 kg/troyounce in 2010 and 316 kg/troyounce in 2011 • Gold is 100% recyclable. Only about 15% of world gold consumptionisrecycledannuallythusmining and processing are the main processescontributing to global warming in the industry Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  42. Process flow for gold production Source: Rio Tinto Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  43. Breakdown of energy for a gold LCA These proportions varies from mine to mine and emissionswillvarywithcarbon content of electricitygrid Source: Rio Tinto Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  44. Global warmingpotential breakdown Source: Rio Tinto Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  45. Assessingvulnerability Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  46. Areas of concern • Infrastructures • Transportation • Roads • Marine • Freshwater • Containment (tailings) • Buildings • Energy • Communication • Mine site drainage • Operations • Environment Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  47. Transportation • Permafrost instability • Roads • Airports • Railroads • Seaicecover • New opportunities for sea transportation in the Arctic • Sealevelrise • Seashore installations protection • Glacier melt • Road security • Inland waters • Lakes and riverslevelinfluenced by drought Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  48. Containmentfacilities • Warmeraveragetemperaturescanaccelerateacid mine drainage • Alteredfreeze/thaw cycles can expose previouslyfrozentailings • Possible overflow or ruptures of dikesfollowingflashfloods or highintensityprecipitations • Wind and wave action of extremeweathereventscan cause resuspension of tailings and formation of icedams Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  49. Buildings and water supply • Permafrost thawcanjeopardize building structures • Higheraveragetemperaturecan lead to water scarcity for ore processing or covering of tailings Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

  50. Can miningindustryadapt to climate change? • Differentstrokes for different folks… each site has itsownpotential challenges • Climate change concerns are relativelyminorgiven the miningindustryexperiencewithnatural conditions • So whybother? Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca

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