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The Commodities Boom in North Asia. Dr Helen B Bendall University of Technology, Sydney ICHCA 2008. World GDP Growth & World Exports. World Exports Volumes & Values (USD). Asia’s Role in World Trade. International Seaborne Trade Mt. Source: UNCTAD 2007.
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The Commodities Boom in North Asia Dr Helen B Bendall University of Technology, Sydney ICHCA 2008
International Seaborne Trade Mt Source: UNCTAD 2007 * Main Bulks subset of Dry Cargo – iron ore, grain, coal, bauxite, alumina, phosphate
Major Coal Exporters 2006 Thermal, Metallurgical % World Share Source: UNCTAD 2007
Thermal Coal Trade China Mt Source: ABARE 2007
Metallurgical Coal Exports Mt Source; ABARE,2007
World Steel Producers 2006 Source: MariTrade from IISI2008
Metallurgical Coal Imports Mt Source: ABARE 2007
Australia’s Exports to North Asia Coal by Volume (Mt) Source: MariTrade / ABS 2008
Australian Coal Exports 2005-6Value AUD’000 Source: DFAT 2006
Australia Brazil World Iron Ore Exporters % World Share Source: UNCTAD 2007
Iron Ore Exports Mt Source: ABARE 2007, *UNCTAD 2007,
Iron ore Imports Mt Source: ABARE 2007,*The Economist 2008
Australia’s Exports to North Asia Iron Ore by Volume (Tonnes) Source: MariTrade 2008
Bauxite Exporters Source: UNCTAD 2007
Bauxite - Alumina Exports Australia-North Asia in AUDm DFAT 2007
Australian Aluminium ExportsAUD m Source ABARE 2008
Alumina Importers/Exporters Exporters Importers
Aluminium Output 2000 - 2007 YOY, M’ tonnes annualised Source: Lehman Brothers 2008
Copper Demand 2005 - 2007 YOY, ‘000 Tonnes Source: Lehman Brothers 2008
Australia’s Exports to North Asia Copper by Volume (Mt) Source: MariTrade / ABS 2008
Stainless Steel Production and Nickel Cash 2000 - 2007 Source: Lehman Brothers,2008
Nickel/Nickel Alloys Exports Australia - North Asia in AUDm Source: DFAT 2007
Australian Nickel Exports Mt Source: MariTrade
The FutureTrade in Dry Bulk Commodities North Asia Up? Down?
Will commodity exporting countries, such as Australia, continue to ride on the bow wave of North Asian dry bulk carriers?
Uncertainties • World Economic Outlook • supply and demand for dry-bulk commodities • sub-prime fallout • Economic Outlook North Asia • South Korea • Japan • Economic Outlook China • inflation • “brownouts” • environmental concerns – air, water
World Largest Economies in 2050 by GDP BRIC Economies Brazil Russia India China (including Japan) Source: Goldman Sachs 2001
Largest Regions by GDP in 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs 2001
GDP per Capita in 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs 2001
Wealthiest Countries per Capita 2015inUSD (base value 2000 USD) Source: USDA 2000
Economic Outlook – South Korea Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2008
Economic Outlook - Japan Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2008
Australian Trade 2006/7AUD Billion AFR 24/4/08
Economic Outlook - China Source: Lehman Brothers May,2008,
China GDP % Growth Source: AFR April 2008
Economic Outlook - China Source: Lehman Brothers May,2008
Real GDP % YOY Source: Lehman Brothers,2008
Asian Market Share of World ShipsDwt millions Source: Lloyds Register,,UNCTAD,2007.
Asian Bulk Carriers (Ex Japan) 1 Jan 2007 Source: UNCTAD 2007
Asian Percentage of World Fleetby Flag of Registration GT ’000s Source: Lloyds Register, UINCTAD,2007
Australia Outlook% saar Source: Lehman Brothers,2008
CPI % YOY Source: Lehman Brothers,2008