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October 2011 Forecast Review

October 2011 Forecast Review. Doug Macdonald Utah League of Cities and Towns. Led by China, nominal GDP will average 5.1% in 2012 (down 1% from 2011). Source: The Economist, October 8, 2011. The U.S. economy (real GDP) appears to be moving upward.

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October 2011 Forecast Review

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  1. October2011Forecast Review Doug Macdonald Utah League of Cities and Towns

  2. Led by China, nominal GDP will average 5.1% in 2012 (down 1% from 2011) Source: The Economist, October 8, 2011

  3. The U.S. economy (real GDP) appears to be moving upward

  4. The Fed’s U.S. leading economic indicators are improving too

  5. But the ECRI leading index is pointing down

  6. And a European Crisis Looms • Joe Brusuelas, Bloomberg, “Hard default in Greece will require recapitalizations in U.S. (JP Morgan, Citi, Wells, BofA, HSBC, GS) • Mohamed El-Erian, PIMCO, “French banks are under pressure” • Neil Barofsky, NYU, “The parallels with 2008 are remarkable, low capital held against assets.” • Nouriel Roubini, NYU, “We are running out of policy bullets. At this point, the issue is not whether there is going to be a recession, but whether it’s going to be severe recession and a global financial crisis.”

  7. And a European Crisis Looms

  8. U.S. Business Equipment & Software will in improve in 2012, but at a slower pace

  9. Utah employment still headed up, while U.S. job growth stalls

  10. Unemployment claims rose a bit in last three months, but are now below 2002 levels

  11. Consumer sentiment up 4 points in September after plummeting in July & August

  12. Utah Residential Construction up 2% in 2011 thru July, may improve up to 15% in 2012 Source: Univ. of Utah, BEBR

  13. Last three months increased 4.3%

  14. Salt Lake County 2nd Quarter Sales Stats Source: Utah State Tax Commission

  15. U.S. consumers continue to spend despite volatile job and stock market conditions

  16. 1 month, ytd -1.2%

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