Synoptic situations associated to floods in the river mouths

1. Synoptic situations associated to floods in the river mouths

2. Purposes: • Classify synoptic situations associated to various types of floods • Assess the changes of synoptical conditions favorable for inundations in a changing climate. • Areas: • Baltic sea • Black sea • Azov sea • Caspian sea • Barents sea Types of floods: Storm surges Water-flow Ice-jam

3. DATA • Data from GIS-Meteo system is used (since 1997). • Time resolution – 3 hours • includes: • SLP, • geopotential at all pressure levels (1000-10 hPa) • Precipitation • Cloudiness • temperatureat 2m and pressure levels • Data of radiolocation • Wind speed and direction Method: Synoptic frontal analysis is applied

4. Нагонные наводнения Storm surges Caused by Wind foricing

5. Neva.February 20057.01.2005 12 GMT H500 Surface map L L Large depression located to the north-west of St-Petersburg

6. 07.01.2005 12 GMT Wind at 10 m Strong continuous wind forcing, wind oriented along the river channel

7. Pregolya03-07.12.1999 Surface map H500 Additional factor -precipitation

8. Norvegian cyclone 29.11.2011

9. Norvegian cyclone 29.11.2011

10. Mouth of Don river. April 1997 12.04.1997 00 GMT Black sea area Surface map L L

11. 12.04.1997 00 GMT Wind at 10 m

12. Mouth of Kuban’ 28.10.1969 12GMT H500 Surface map

13. Caspian sea area Kalmykiya 12.11.1952 12GMT Surface map H500

14. White sea area North Dvina22.10.1965 12GMT H500 Surface map

15. Water flow Caused by Abundant precipitation Snow and glacier’s melting

16. H L L L Black sea area Novorossiysk 7-9 December 2002 Surface map Common predictor – intensive frontal zone

17. L Mzymta 25-27 October 1997 Surface map

18. Tuapse 31.07.1991

19. Dgubga16.12.1996

20. Baltic sea area Pregolya 7-10 August 2005 Surface map L

21. Terek 15-24 June 2002 Surface map H

22. Ice-jam

23. Surface map L Н Н PechoraJune 2008 Frontal zone expanded in north-south direction, positive temperature in river source and negative temperature – in the river mouth

24. PechoraJune 1998 Surface map L L

25. Black sea area Mouth of Kuban’7.01.2002 12ч

26. Initial idea – classify the synoptical situations associated with floods, Assess the changes of probability of these situations in a changing climate. Not possible as the large variability of situations resulting in the same type of flood exists. Classification of synoptical situations for all floods Identification of potential predictors – meteorological factors characteristics of all cases of specific flood type Ice-jam –large zonal frontal zone expanding in north-south direction, temperature jumps, precipitations fall conditions, wind direction in the mouth of river etc Storm surges trajectories of depressions, wind speed and wind direction, duration of forcing Water flow– the main factor abundant precipitation No unified scheme of synoptic situation, but the intensive frontal zone is always presented Temperature gradient – approximation of frontal zone probability of gradient exceeding some threshold for modern and future climate Difificult to estimate the influence of climate changes, too many influencing factors which are not adequately represented in climate models Possible to estimate the influence of climate changes, several factors should be included – current work Estimated in climate model

28. Model - MPI-ECHAM5 (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany) Predictor - Probability of intensive frontal zone

29. Number of cases with intensive frontal zone Winter Number of cases years

30. Number of cases with intensive frontal zone Summer Number of cases years