Introduction to Earth System Science

1. Introduction to Earth System Science Arizona STEM Workshop Systems Synergy: Interrelation of the Spheres

2. Some big picture Earth System Science (ESS) questions • our planet 700 Myr ago • our planet 50 Myr ago • why is Earth so different? • our planet today • What is ESS and why is it different? • interaction of the spheres • systems dynamics • modern society, understanding, and decision-making • Systems examples • radiative balance • long-term C-cycle • Big questions • The PETM • Snowball Earth • modern climate change • Concluding thoughts

6. Dan Schrag & Paul Hoffman; http://www.snowballearth.org/

7. Our planet 650 million years ago?

8. The north pole of our planet today NASA/JPL

9. H. Brinkhaus, 2006

10. Paleogeography 50 million years ago H. Brinkhaus, 2006

11. ‘Napartulik’- Inuk for ‘Place of Trees’ Geodetic Hills, Axel Heiberg island Courtesy Jane Francis H. Brinkhaus, 2006

12. Fossil Forest Ridge, Geodetic Hills Buchanan Lake Formation Mid Eocene fluvial sediments (image courtesy Jane Francis) H. Brinkhaus, 2006

13. Fossil leaf litter layers represent forest floors Courtesy Jane Francis H. Brinkhaus, 2006

14. All fossil material is mummified - dried and slightly compressed Courtesy Jane Francis H. Brinkhaus, 2006

15. Courtesy Jane Francis Some leaf litter layers are dominated by Dawn Redwood leaves (Metasequoia). These represent lowland swamp forests. H. Brinkhaus, 2006

16. Metasequoia has light feathery leaves, triangular shape and an open structure, which would have been ideal for growing at high latitudes with low angle light Courtesy Jane Francis Metasequoia is a deciduous conifer. It was discovered first as a fossil, then found living in China Brinkhaus, 2006

17. There are many fossil forests preserved within mid Eocene strata (~50 Ma) in the Canadian High Arctic The forests lived at 80°N, within 1000 km of the North Pole, …nearby there were also crocodiles…

18. Our planet 50 million years ago? modern mean annual T: -10 to 0 °C) modern mean annual T: 20-25 °C) mean annual temperature (°C) Huber, 2009

19. Why is Earth so different (fortunately for us) from nearby planets? No plate tectonics Surface T ~ 480 °C Clouds of sulfuric acid Atmosphere: 92 bars;96% CO2; 3% N2 Active plate tectonics Surface T ~ 15 °C Clouds of water Atmosphere: 1 bar;77% N2; 21% O2; 0.038% CO2

20. Welcome to the Anthropocene Does this emitted CO2 really have an impact on CO2 concentration of the whole atmosphere? Source: http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/

21. Welcome to the Anthropocene Source: http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/

22. Welcome to the Anthropocene Source: http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/

23. Some big picture Earth System Science (ESS) questions • our planet 700 Myr ago • our planet 50 Myr ago • why is Earth so different? • our planet today • What is ESS and why is it different? • interaction of the spheres • systems dynamics • modern society, understanding, and decision-making • Systems examples • radiative balance • long-term C-cycle • Big questions • The PETM • Snowball Earth • modern climate change • Concluding thoughts

24. What is Earth System Science, anyway? Decision Making Earth system science is a way of understanding the Earth as a synergistic system of interrelated phenomena and reservoirs that interact through transfer of matter and energy. (paraphrased from http://esse21.usra.edu/ESSE21/) Interpretation Integration ESS ESS Johnson et al., 2000 Disciplinary Science There are many other ways to view ESS... http://www.cotf.edu/ete/ESS/ESSmain.html http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/nutshell/

25. Many ESS approaches emphasize interactions among the “spheres” lithosphere-hydrosphere-atmosphere-biosphere ± cryosphere, pedosphere, asthenosphere, etc.

26. Many ESS approaches also emphasize system dynamics, feedback loops, and cycles

27. Economic and job growth in Environmental-related fields: http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/cea/Jobs-of-the-Future/ A Clean Energy Future Another set of occupations with strong growth potential are in fields related to clean energy production and environmental protection.  There are growing opportunities in these fields, particularly for workers with technical skills. For example, Figure 4 shows the past and future growth of environment-related occupations compared with all other occupations between 2000 and 2016.  The environment-related jobs we consider are environmental engineering technicians (see box), environmental engineers, environmental scientists and specialists (including health), and environmental science and protection technicians (including health).  Clearly, the U.S. labor market is already becoming increasingly "green" through the growth in these occupations.  Jobs devoted to environmental improvement grew far faster than other occupations from 2000-2006 and the BLS projects fast relative growth through 2016.These environmental jobs account for only a small fraction of a growing list of occupations and industries that are becoming increasingly devoted to clean energy production, energy efficiency, and environmental protection.

28. Examples of industry/political interest in climate change: • alternative energy • CO2 capture & sequestration • shifts in agriculture • rising sea level • C-footprint calculations • new shipping routes • water supply • insurance of natural disasters • impacts on ski areas, tourism, rec • long-term “weather“ prediction • human migration “Schendler has also learned firsthand a point that climate scientists have been making for some time: With climate change, "warming" isn't the only—or even the most serious—challenge. The sheer interdependence of complex ecosystems systems can grease you. “

29. “... politicians, as a species, may need to adapt to climate change as fast as polar bears. Consider the ways the electoral environment could be affected: Both major political parties could see their power bases erode as Americans, responding to warming temperatures and rising seas, flee the Republican-dominated South and Democratic-friendly coasts. Drought in the Southwest could reignite water wars between California suburbanites and Rocky Mountain swing voters. In Iowa, where floodwaters will rise more often and corn yields could suffer from heat waves and insect plagues, wanna-be presidential contenders could end up talking FEMA as much as the farm bill. And if you think the current immigration debate is charged, wait until so-called climate refugees begin pouring in from China, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, on the foreign-policy front, the NOAA study projects "tensions between governments in the East and West [will] begin to fray as it is becoming clear that an entirely new level of commitment"—read: huge amounts of money—"will probably be needed to address the relationship between people and the planet."

32. 2006 2005 Current emissions are tracking well above the most intense fossil fuel scenario envisioned, A1FI- A1 Fossil Fuel intensive; and moving away from stabilization scenarios of 450 ppm and 650 ppm. 2007 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

33. Nature, 22 April 2010

34. Some big picture Earth System Science (ESS) questions • our planet 700 Myr ago • our planet 50 Myr ago • why is Earth so different? • our planet today • What is ESS and why is it different? • interaction of the spheres • systems dynamics • modern society, understanding, and decision-making • Systems examples • radiative balance • long-term C-cycle • Big questions • The PETM • Snowball Earth • modern climate change • Concluding thoughts

35. energy flow from sun to Earth: 173,410 W geothermal energy flow from Earth: 44 W What controls surface T of Earth?

36. Albedo: fraction of sunlight (radiant energy) reflected back into space

37. Atmospheric greenhouse gases: N2O H2O CH4 CO2 O3 above: dry air composition CFC-12 CFC-11

38. incoming outgoing

39. greenhouse effect • With no greenhouse effect T = -21 °C • With greenhouse effect T = +15 °C • GHGs on Earth are the difference between ice and liquid water: no-life and life

40. Some illustrative feedbacks involving: albedo Ts incoming solar radiation GHGs rock cycle

41. System dynamics: Positive feedback loop (destabilizing)

42. Implications of the ice-albedo feedback • runaway warming and loss of all ice? • runaway cooling and global ice cover?

43. chemical weathering of silicate minerals removes CO2 from the atmosphere silicate weathering higher T → higher precipitation and faster weathering rates

44. silicate weathering System dynamics: Negative feedback loop (stabilizing)

45. Implications of the long-term carbon cycle over the last ~500 Myr the global carbon cycle has moderated Earth’s surface temperature to within ~20-30 °C

46. Some big picture Earth System Science (ESS) questions • our planet 700 Myr ago • our planet 50 Myr ago • why is Earth so different? • our planet today • What is ESS and why is it different? • interaction of the spheres • systems dynamics • modern society, understanding, and decision-making • Systems examples • radiative balance • long-term C-cycle • Big questions • The PETM • Snowball Earth • modern climate change • Concluding thoughts

47. Lone Butte, North Dakota Photo: Brett Tipple

48. Zachos et al., 2001

49. the PETM as recorded in ocean sediments Zachos et al., 2001

50. The PETM • 5-8 °C global warming over 10-40 kyr • ~5000 Pg of C released (this year humans release ~9 Pg C) • major ocean acidification, dissolution of several km of limestone • foraminiferal extinctions • major biotic shifts, climate changes • widespread wildfires Where did the C come from?