How Do We Assess the Political Environment?

1. How Do We Assess the Political Environment? Presented by Jack Nicholl

2. Investigate Public Opinion Which “publics” are important to assess? • Key Opinion Leaders • The Public/voters • Law Enforcement Authorities • Elected officials • Leading healthcare organizations

3. Identify Allies & Opponents– Assess Their Strength • Who cares about this policy enough to join? • Whose problem is it • What do they gain if they win? • What risks are they taking? • What power do they have over the target? • Who are your opponents? • What will your victory cost them? • What will they do/spend to oppose you?

4. Assess Your Own Strength • Identify the resources that coalition organizations bring to the campaign: money, staff, facilities, reputation, contacts • Determine the budget for the campaign and the coalition’s ability to raise it • List what each organization hopes to get out of the campaign, and thus their commitment to it • Evaluate the power of your message and arguments

5. Investigate the government record • What are the current tobacco control policies? • When did they pass? Who voted for/against them? • What is the record of enforcement of existing policies? Which agency enforces?

6. How Your Board, Council or Commission works • What is the structure, e.g. Mayor and City Council. • Is Mayor elected at large or appointed by Council? • Who is the Chair or the President • Is Council elected by district or all at large? • Is the City Manager or CEO a leader or a follower? • What are the terms?

7. How Your Board, Council or Commission works (Con’t) • Who’s up for election next? When are the primary or general elections? • What were the election results the last time this district voted? Was it close? • How do the committees work? • What’s the calendar for the council/board? When does it make sense to bring the issue? • What’s the largest turnout of advocates at a hearing in recent memory

8. Research Backgrounds of Key Decision Makers • Election histories • Community and business affiliations • Family background • Voting history on tobacco matters • Acceptance of tobacco contributions

9. Evaluate Available Local Data • Local data is a critical resource • We need data covering the jurisdiction in which we are campaigning to change the policy. County data won’t help much in a city campaign • Smoking rates, estimated taxpayer costs • Retailer sales rates to minors, compliance with STAKE Act signage and SSD ban • Local impact if SYNAR forces $100 million cut in state’s Alcohol and Drug Treatment programs

10. If There Is No Local Data, Go Out and Create Some of Your Own • In Long Beach, PD “sting” records don’t make the case; need a Youth Purchase Survey • In Stanislaus, needed YPS data in unincorpo- rated areas of each Supervisor’s district to be able to educate supervisors about problem. • In San Mateo, needed data showing the public wanted sales to minors laws enforced; created a simple survey and Yo Mateo youth circulated it to get the data.

11. Navigating Your Political Environment • This data will dramatically increase your self-confidence and sophistication in dealing with the political world • It will allow you to make informed decisions about important campaign matters • It will significantly increase your chances for winning your policy campaign