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Briefing for Weather Forecast for KOKC (Oklahoma City, OK) on Friday, April 25 th , 2014

Briefing for Weather Forecast for KOKC (Oklahoma City, OK) on Friday, April 25 th , 2014. Hayden Robel METR 104 Thursday, April 24 th , 2014. Overview of Current Weather Conditions. visible and infrared satellite images a composite surface weather map

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Briefing for Weather Forecast for KOKC (Oklahoma City, OK) on Friday, April 25 th , 2014

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  1. Briefing for Weather Forecast for KOKC(Oklahoma City, OK)on Friday, April 25th, 2014 Hayden Robel METR 104 Thursday, April 24th, 2014

  2. Overview of Current Weather Conditions • visible and infrared satellite images • a composite surface weather map • a composite map of conditions aloft • a jet stream map

  3. Forecast Discussion • First I consulted the NWS Point forecast of KOKC for our Friday (6-am to 6pm) period, the point forecasting a range of 7-12 mph winds (6-10 knots) increasing to 17-22 mph (15-19 knots) sometime afternoon with a wind direction of south. I then consulted our North American Mesoscale forecast (NAM) interpolating the depicted information for KOKC to deduce an average windspeed of 15 knots with a wind direction of south for our forecasting region. After this I converted the point forecast windspeeds from mph to knots( divide given mph value by 1.15), resulting in 7-12 mph winds converted to 6-10 knots, and a range of 17-22 mph being converted to 15-19 knots for the afternoon. Comparing the point forecast to our NAM model the wind direction of south is indeed congruous. Initially I forecasted an 18Z windspeed of 17 knots averaging the point forecast range of 15-19 knots, but considering we are forecasting for the earlier 18Z (12 CST) time period I lowered my forecasting range to 14 knots, with a wind direction of south so that my forecast is within plus or minus 5 knots of our Point as well as NAM forecasting ranges. • Both the NWS point forecast and NAM forecasts have their respective strengths and weaknesses. The NWS forecast finds its strength in that it provides us a range of speed data rather than rudimentary flags and barb knot increments of NAM models. Although a good resource, the NWS forecast falters in that it provides speed as well as wind direction forecasts between 6 am and 6 pm and between 6 pm and 6 am local time, twelve hour periods, making it difficult to forecast conditions at a precise time, in this case hour (18Z). Not only this the NWS reports wind speeds in MPH rather than Knots (a 15% larger unit of speed than a mile per hour), thus conversion is necessary for our purposes. • The NAM forecast, on the other hand, depicts forecasted conditions for hour 18Z specifically, thus a potentially more accurate resource employing “cells” (computer generated atmosphere divisions) each spanning regions 13 to 25 miles, across. Unfortunately these cells convey only winds at the center of each regularly spaced cell thus we must “interpolate” the winds of our forecast location from the forecast winds at surrounding cells as our forecast area rarely coincides with these cell centers. The NAM model also fails to illustrate environmental factors such as terrain, coastlines, ground cover etc. Additionally the NAM model utilizes flags with 5-10 knot “barb” increment system to depict wind speed making it difficult to find a range of precise speed data.

  4. What will the wind direction and wind speed beat 18Z tomorrow? Links: • Latest NWS Point Forecast: Friday, April 25th, 2014 (6am-6pm); Sunny, with a high near 84. South wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.

  5. What will the wind direction and wind speed beat 18Z tomorrow? Links: • Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds andtemperature at 18Z tomorrow (southern Plains region)

  6. What will the wind direction and wind speed beat 18Z tomorrow? Links: • Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18Z tomorrow (central Oklahoma region)

  7. Forecast:14 knots; South Forecast Verification: In order to receive full credit for my forecast at Iowa State, My wind speed must be within plus/minus 5 knots of the actual wind speed. For wind direction I must forecast within 3 octants of the actual recorded wind direction. With my forecast of 14 knots I was within plus/minus 5 knots as well as within 3 octants with my forecast wind direction of south, thus I would receive 3 points.

  8. Archived meteograms

  9. Archived weather maps for the Great Plains, including fronts

  10. Archived analyses of temperature and wind observations

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