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Spatiotemporal Modelling of Nitrate and Phosphorus in River Catchments for England and Wales

Spatiotemporal Modelling of Nitrate and Phosphorus in River Catchments for England and Wales. Claire Miller 1 , Ana-Maria Magdalina 1 , Adrian Bowman 1 , Marian Scott 1 , Duncan Lee 1 , Robert Willows 2 , Chris Burgess 2 and Linda Pope 2 1 Statistics, University of Glasgow 2 Environment Agency.

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Spatiotemporal Modelling of Nitrate and Phosphorus in River Catchments for England and Wales

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  1. Spatiotemporal Modelling of Nitrate and Phosphorus in River Catchments for England and Wales Claire Miller1, Ana-Maria Magdalina1, Adrian Bowman1, Marian Scott1, Duncan Lee1, Robert Willows2, Chris Burgess2 and Linda Pope2 1Statistics, University of Glasgow 2Environment Agency

  2. Project Objectives • To investigate the overall pattern of nutrient concentrations in river surface waters over the past 20-30 years. • To investigate if the spatio-temporal distribution of nutrient concentrations in river surface waters within and between catchments can be explained by catchment covariate information.

  3. Data • Response:OP, TON, TN (log transformed and non-detects imputed) • Covariates: • Population • Land use • Land cover • Fertilizer • Physical characteristics of the land (slope, soil type and quality) • Rainfall • Flow/discharge • Base flow index (BFI). • River catchment - Large Hydrological Areas (59 units)

  4. Large Hydrological Areas LHA 22 Coquet-Wansbeck Blyth

  5. Additive Model • Additive model to investigate temporal and spatial trends and • seasonality and incorporating space-time interactions:

  6. TON for Coquet, Wansbeck, Blyth LHA in the NE (1994 - 2009) trend seasonality The plot highlights the adjustments that should be added to the main effect for season at particular time points. Interaction between day and year

  7. time and space interaction TON for Coquet, Wansbeck, Blyth LHA in the NE (1994 - 2009) Spatial Trend Northing Interaction between space and time Easting The movie highlights the spatial adjustments that should be added to the main effect for space at particular time points.

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