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Through a glass darkly: American and North Vietnamese Intelligence and the Easter Offensive

Delve into the depths of American and North Vietnamese intelligence operations during the Easter Offensive in 1972. Analyzing sources, strategic estimates, key events, and the intelligence-policy interface provides insights into decision-making processes and outcomes. Explore the surprises, miscalculations, and struggles faced by leaders from both sides, ultimately leading to a negotiated settlement. Reflect on the relevance of historical lessons for contemporary strategic challenges and the complexities of conflict in a democracy.

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Through a glass darkly: American and North Vietnamese Intelligence and the Easter Offensive

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  1. Through a glass darkly:American and North Vietnamese Intelligenceand the Easter Offensive Dr. Steve Randolph National Defense University 21 October 2006 randolphs@ndu.edu/202-685-4493

  2. Sources and Sequence • Sources • North Vietnamese • Politburo’s Selected Party Documents, 1971-1972 • NVA/NVAF campaign and unit histories; memoirs • NVA Military Studies Institute campaign analyses • Le Duc Tho conversation in Paris, May 1972 • American • Nixon Presidential Material (NARA) • NSC files • White House Tapes • CREST (NARA) • MACV records (NARA, CMH, USAMHI) • JCS/DIA records (NARA) • CHECO histories (AFHRA, online) and Corona Harvest material • Vietnam Archive/Virtual Vietnam Archive • Sorley, The Abrams Tapes • United Kingdom: Consular reports (PRO) • Sequence • North Vietnam’s Strategic Estimate • U.S. Intelligence and the Policy Interface • How It All Played Out • Thoughts for Today

  3. North Vietnam’s Strategic Estimate • Relevant Background: • Tet Offensive and its aftermath • Lam Son 719 • Planning the 1972 Campaign • Structure and process of NVA decisionmaking • Strategic objectives • Major considerations: • International environment (Beijing and Moscow) • State of the Battlefield • Military, economic, political, diplomatic restraints on Nixon • Strategic/Operational concept • Cascade of violence on three fronts (main force, rural, urban) • Continuous attacks into the fall • Projected American response • Risk factors • Operational and logistical • State of local forces and the infrastructure • Nixon • Preplanned branches and sequels • Tactical/technical intelligence fails to project impact of new-generation US weapons

  4. NVA Axes of Attack, March-May 1972

  5. American Intelligence and the Policy Interface • Initial projections: “high point” offensives in MRs I/II • The picture gradually sharpens, Nov 71-Jan 72 • Intent: North Vietnamese press, defectors, POWs, documents,…. • Input: Tracking imports through ports and rail systems • Throughput: • COMINT along the Ho Chi Minh Trail • Electronic Battlefield and the Flow of Materiel • Intelligence-Policy Reviews and their Results: • February 1972: Triangular diplomacy and air operations • March 1972: the US inter-agency’s tangled web • Meanwhile the Politburo assesses the situation and adjusts the plan • Logistics • Local forces • Capability against fortified towns • Combined arms • US withdrawal and gaps in tactical intelligence

  6. How it all played out: the parameters of surprise • US projects major offensive but surprised by: • Timing • Weight • Duration • Technology • NVA shocked by Nixon’s response: massive reinforcement of air/naval forces, sustained offensive against NVN • Strategic miscalculation forces counter-mobilization: military, logistical, diplomatic, civil • Tactical/technical intelligence failures compound problems: fighting the last war • Strategic leaders on both sides struggle to understand the state of the campaign and impose their will on actors and events • Events on the battlefield drive negotiating positions (Clausewitz in reverse) • Superpowers all pursue their essential interests at the expense of their client states • US and North Vietnam converge toward negotiated settlement reflecting the battlefield situation: everyone meets their essential requirements (except the South Vietnamese)

  7. Through a glass darkly II:Some thoughts for today • Low-tech adversary met its essential strategic ends: • Persistence • Resilience • Study of US forces, relentless search for seams and weakness • Uses and limitations of technical intelligence • Coalition ops and intelligence in a dependent relationship • Conflict defined by action-reaction cycle at all levels • Evolving definition of victory—for both sides • Pressures and dilemmas inherent in protracted warfare in a democracy

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