Ecological Forecasting in the Intertidal Zone: Climate Change and Biogeographic Response

1. Ecological forecasting, hindcasting and nowcasting in the intertidal zone:From weather to body temperatures and demography David S. Wethey, T. J Hilbish, V. Lakshmi, B. Helmuth University of South Carolina Columbia SC 29208 USA wethey@biol.sc.edu

2. What is the relationship between climate change and biogeographic change in intertidal species? • Major space occupiers / habitat modifiers • Barnacles – • Semibalanus balanoides • Mussels – • Mytilus californianus, M. edulis • M. galloprovincialis, M. trossulus • Worms- • Tube builders – habitat creators: Diopatra • Bioturbators – habitat disturbers: Arenicola Wethey & Woodin 2008, Hydrobiol 606:139; Berke et al. 2010 GlobEcolBiog 19:223

3. Intertidal Temperature Models • Barnacle – • Wethey 2002 Integ Comp Biol 42:872-880 , • Wethey & Woodin 2008 Hydrobiologia 606:139-151 • Mussel – • Gilman, Wethey, Helmuth 2006.PNAS 103:9560-9565 • Starfish – • Szathmary, Helmuth, Wethey 2009 Marine Ecol Prog Ser 374: 43–56 • Sandflat • Salt Marsh Sediment • New “vegetation types” in NOAH land surface model • Models capture seasonal trend and amplitude of daily variation measured with biomimetic data loggers in the field • Mussel model Average Bias 0.66°C • Mussel model Average RMS error 2.47°C • Errors largely derive from poor hindcasts of solar radiation

4. Forecasting • Forecasting products for coastal managers • Warnings of die-offs • Sublethal effects on dominant space-occupiers • Short term forecasts (7-days) – Run Daily • US East/West, Europe, Chile/Peru, Hokkaido/Sakhalin, NZ, S Africa • http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/forecasting_test • Forcing data from NOAA operational products • North American Mesoscale Model/Global Forecast System • Climate Forecast System • Wave Watch III • SST (5 km) from GHRSST • OSTIA – UK Met Office • Climate Scenarios • NASA/GISS, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NARCCAP, EU ENSEMBLES Models • Tides from Xtide

5. Whangateau Harbor Cockle Mass Mortality 2009 Forecasts of intertidal temperatures 2007-2010 High cockle mortality occurred during unusually hot conditions in the intertidal: >35°C at 1cm depth in sediment Cockle data: Karen Tricklebank

6. Nowcasting • Experimental Product • Real Time – 1 hour time delay • GOES Sounder 8km imagery • Use land surface temperature adjacent to shore • Has similar thermal trajectory to our data loggers • Tide Model –OregonState OTPS Best r2 = 0.57 Slope = 0.90 Intercept = 1.73 RMS error=0.36°C Bias=0.13°C http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/forecasting_test/westcoast_goes.html

7. Modeling Biogeographic Response to Climate Change • Mussel – Mytilus • Population Response to Climate Variables • Mortality (Lethal Temperature 32°C) • Energy Balance (Fails if higher than 18-20°C) • Hindcast of Climate Variables • Sea Surface Temperature • Air Temperature • Organism Body Temperature

8. Thermal Tolerance Data Used to Construct a Model of Survival Lab tolerance Field Temperatures % Survival Temperature (°C) Temperature (°C) Date Cumulative Survival Daily Survival % Survival Jones et al. 2009. Biol. Bull. 217: 73-85 Julian Day

9. Mytilus edulis yearly survival hindcastsfrom daily SST and air temperature records(modeling the last individual to die in the shade) OISST NARR Air T Model results match field observations both in timing and magnitude of mortality from the Carolinas to New England. Results also consistent with observed pattern of biogeographic change since 1950s. 1982 2005 Sierra Jones

10. Totally different mechanism in Europe:Mytilus edulis distribution cannot be explained by thermal mortality – should be able to survive far south of its actual geographic limitSerious overprediction error – likely due to differences in mechanism between the two sides of the Atlantic Geographic limit Allele freq Thermal survival limit Sierra Jones

11. Energetics Models Improve Predictive Power on European Coast Energetics Model Adult Mortality Model Low Food Ration Aquatic Thermal Mortality Julian Day Zero Energy Remaining Cumulative Thermal Survival December Geog Limit Geog Limit European coast is not hot enough to kill mussels outright, but Southern Europe is hot enough that they likely run out of energy before the year is over.

12. Modeling Biogeographic Response to Climate Change • Barnacle – Semibalanus; • Population Response to Climate Variables • Mortality (Lethal Temperature 42°C) • Reproduction (Fails if higher than 10.5-11.5°C) • Age structured demographic model with dispersal • Hindcast/Forecast of Climate Variables • Sea Surface Temperature • Organism Body Temperature • Average Dispersal Distance 10 km • Seed whole ocean with animals and let the population grow and disperse.

13. Biogeography Ensemble probability of occurrence of species Matches data 1955 & 2006 Forecasts of 2050 and 2099 EU ENSEMBLES Project Downscaled GCM output 17 models

14. Collaborators and Support • PIs: Brian Helmuth, Jerry Hilbish, Venkat Lakshmi, Sarah Woodin • Post docs: Sarah Gilman, Fernando Lima, Nova Mieszkowska, Srinivas Chintalapati, Sylvain Pincebourde, Nils Volkenborn • Students: Sarah Berke, Pamela Brannock, Lindsay Brin, Nicholas Burnett, Elizabeth Fly, Sierra Jones, Karlie Jones, Jennifer Jost, Christel Lopez, Rhiannon Rognstad, Kimberly Schneider, Allison Smith*, Lauren Szathmary, Lauren Yamane * NASA graduate fellow – see her poster at the meeting