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Collaborative Work with Colleagues in Sri Lanka

Climate, Drought, and Agricultural Adaptations: Vulnerabilities and Responses to Water Stress Among Paddy Farmers in Sri Lanka. Josh Bazuin, Amanda Carrico, James Fraser, Jonathan Gilligan, John Jacobi, George Hornberger, Lanka Thabrew, Heather Truelove.

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Collaborative Work with Colleagues in Sri Lanka

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  1. Climate, Drought, and Agricultural Adaptations: Vulnerabilities and Responses to Water Stress Among Paddy Farmers in Sri Lanka Josh Bazuin, Amanda Carrico, James Fraser, Jonathan Gilligan, John Jacobi, George Hornberger, Lanka Thabrew, Heather Truelove

  2. Collaborative Work with Colleagues in Sri Lanka

  3. Drought Adaptation? • How do psychological, social and institutional factors affect farmer adaptation decisions? • How do changing climate patterns, land use, and water allocation decisions affect water availability and rice yields? • How might future changes in the natural environment and social & institutional circumstances affect farmers' vulnerability?

  4. Natural science variables • Rainfall • Temperature • River flow • Reservoir storage • Forest cover • Land for cultivation • Social science variables • Risk appraisal • Coping appraisal • Social appraisal • Adaptive and behavioral responses ABM – scenario analyses Water Availability Rice Production

  5. A multi-level, multi-method approach • A natural quasi-experimental setting • differing communities analyzed • Drought analysis methods • Archival analysis and key interviews • characterize political decision making • Agent based modeling • integrate multiple streams of data • generate a set of possible scenarios

  6. Drought and Rice Production in Sri Lanka • Two growing seasons • Maha (Sep – Mar) • Yala (May – Aug) • PDSI was calculated for each growing season in four rice producing districts Trincomalee Dry Matale Intermediate Wet

  7. Drought and Rice Production in Sri Lanka • Correlation between PDSI and rice production was found in Trincomalee - Yala • Trincomalee is dry and at the end of the irrigation line R = 0.51 P = 0.02

  8. To be continued …….

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