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ISO New England’s Gas Studies Phase I & II

ISO New England’s Gas Studies Phase I & II. Mark R. Babula Supervisor - Power Supply & Reliability December 17, 2001 CONEG/NYSERDA Regional Meeting To be Presented to the RC on 12/18/01 by Peter Wong. Winter 2001/02 Capacity Outlook Week beginning January 19, 2002. MW

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ISO New England’s Gas Studies Phase I & II

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  1. ISO New England’s Gas StudiesPhase I & II Mark R. Babula Supervisor - Power Supply & Reliability December 17, 2001 CONEG/NYSERDA Regional Meeting To be Presented to the RC on 12/18/01 by Peter Wong

  2. Winter 2001/02 Capacity OutlookWeek beginning January 19, 2002 MW • Projected Peak Demand 21,490 • Operating Reserve Required 1,700 • Total Operable Capacity Required 23,190 • Projected Capacity 28,670 • Assumed Outages -2,600 • Total Capacity 26,070 • Operable Capacity Margin 2,880 ISO New England Inc.

  3. History and Background • Formation of the New England Gas/Electric Discussion Group in 1991 to examine regional coordination issues between the gas & electric industries • Examine operational reliability of the gas/electric infrastructure • Increase coordination between the industries • Educate industry participants and observers • Analysis includes the modeling of the loss of a major gas & non-gas fired generator, under projected 1995 system conditions • Seven years go by - no similar analysis has been performed since the publication of that EPRI report ISO New England Inc.

  4. Why a Natural Gas Study? • Since 1997, ISO-NE has received applications for interconnection System Impact Studies for almost 55,000 MW of new merchant generation capacity • Virtually all of this proposed capacity is advanced combined cycle technology or peaking capacity fueled exclusively by natural gas • There is a need to independently review New England’s natural gas pipeline infrastructure and its ability to reliably meet the increasing demands of the electric generation sector (deliverability study) ISO New England Inc.

  5. Scope(s) of Work • Study time frame: 2000 - 2005 • Projections of electric demand and supply (existing & proposed) • Develop electric sector gas demands from production simulation • Projections for gas infrastructure (existing & proposed) • Projections of gas demands from traditional sectors - FERC forms • Overlay electric sector demands on top of traditional gas demands • produce coincidental (gas & electric peak) seasonal gas demand curves • Balance & tune individual pipeline models to incorporate seasonal gas demand curves, then integrate into one “Consolidated Model” ISO New England Inc.

  6. Scope(s) of Work • Develop steady-state hydraulic engineering models of pipeline capacity serving the New England region (Phase I) • Develop transient hydraulic engineering models of pipeline capacity serving the New England region, i.e temporal analysis (Phase II) • Assess impacts on pipeline deliverability from modeling three seasonal gas demand scenarios: Reference, High, and 60-Day Winter Average (Phase I & II) • Consideration of gas-side contingencies on the bulk electric system and vice versa (Phase I & II) • Summarize results and issue report with recommendations ISO New England Inc.

  7. Phase I Steady-State ResultsIssued January 2001 • No pipeline delivery constraints on a peak day in Winter 2000-01 • No summer peak day pipeline deliverability constraints through 2005 • Delivery constraints become apparent in Winter 2003 • Generation at Risk  1,755 MW out of 7,550 MW assumed • Delivery constraints intensify by Winter 2005 • Generation at Risk  3,226 MW out of 11,500 MW assumed • Potential mitigation through back-up fuel switching: Winter 2003 - 71 gas-fired units totaling 16,000 MW - 51 dual fueled totaling 9,250 MW Winter 2005 - 75 gas-fired units totaling 18,650 MW - 54 dual fueled totaling 11,500 MW ISO New England Inc.

  8. Phase I FindingsIssued January 2001 • Gas-fired generation in New England will soar from 16% in 1999 to over 40% by 2005 • Insufficient gas pipeline delivery capacity to satisfy the winter peak day coincident demand from both LDCs and the electric power generation sector • Increased vaporization capability at Distrigas LNG is targeted for the new Sithe New Mystic plant - Distrigas availability becomes vital • Additional fuel oil volumes of up to 20% of the region’s daily delivery capabilities would be required to meet merchant generators’ backup fuel requirements in the winter - sustainability issues • A number of critical bottlenecked pipeline segments still remain - potential mitigation from newly proposed gas infrastructure enhancements - TBD ISO New England Inc.

  9. Phase I RecommendationsIssued January 2001 ISO-NE Should: • Identify the fuel transportation contracts for generators • Improved understanding of generators back-up fuel capabilities • Support the promulgation of standards to promote coordination of scheduling protocols between the gas & electric systems • Advocate FERC to streamline the approval process for pipeline construction & expansion • Conduct transient modeling to identify temporal impacts resulting from both electric & gas side contingencies ISO New England Inc.

  10. Phase II Scope of Work • Update the Phase I Consolidated Model to reflect nine newly proposed pipeline projects & enhancements • Using both steady-state and transient hydraulic modeling, assess reliability impacts from both electric & gas side contingencies • Loss of major gas-fired and non-gas-fired units & major tie-line • Critical line segments, compressor stations, etc. • Assess reliability impacts from potential loss of Distrigas LNG facility • Sithe New Mystic & Winter 2001/2002 operations • Assess seasonal reliability impacts from pipeline declarations of Operational Flow Orders (OFOs) ISO New England Inc.

  11. Phase II - System Restoration • NEPOOL System Restoration Working Group (SRWG) Question: • “What is the impact on New England’s natural gas infrastructure upon partial or full collapse of the bulk electric power grid?” • Questionnaire sent to LDCs, pipelines & Distrigas LNG • Assess impacts on gas-side operations - similar to Y2K initiatives • Compressor stations: gas-fired versus electrical drives? • Battery backup capabilities on critical equipment & sustainability • Assess impacts on and recommend changes to: • NEPOOL OP No. 6 - System Restoration Procedure/Plan • NEPOOL OP No. 11 - Black Start Capability Testing Requirements ISO New England Inc.

  12. Phase II - Gas & Electric Map • Large geographic color map of New England identifying: • Interstate and intrastate natural gas pipelines: existing & proposed • Local gas distribution company service territories • Compressor stations • Gas-fired generating units: off pipelines & behind city-gates • Distrigas LNG and satellite liquefaction & vaporization • Map is expandable for: • Overlay of bulk electric transmission grid map • Identification of 13 NEPOOL sub-area reliability zones • Primarily for support of Control Room Operations ISO New England Inc.

  13. Phase II Report - What’s Next • Phase II Report - Publication forthcoming • NEPOOL SRWG Report - Confidential - No public dissemination • ISO-NE will: • Request access to pipelines electronic bulletin board services • Investigate generator’s fuel transportation contracts • Become involved at FERC on gas issues as they relate to electricity sector (stakeholders at GISB & EISB) • Maintain our gas system dynamic models into the future • Phase III report is possible ISO New England Inc.

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