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This report provides a regional comparison of smoking prevalence among adults and youth, as well as an analysis of the potential impact of various tobacco control measures. It highlights the importance of implementing the WHO FCTC and MPOWER measures to achieve a 30% reduction in tobacco use by 2025.
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Public health policies and approaches for reducing prevalence of tobacco use E Tursan d’Espaignet Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco ControlTobacco Free InitiativePrevention of Noncommunicable DiseasesWHO Geneva tursandespaignet@who.int, pujaris@who.int,
Regional ComparisonSmoking prevalence in WHO Member States, Adults 15+ years, 2011 Source: WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic 2013. Geneva, World Health Organization, 2014, in print. Definition: Smoking at the time of the survey any form of tobacco including cigarettes, cigars, pipes, bidis, shisha , etc
http://www.who.int/nmh/global_monitoring_framework/en/index.htmlhttp://www.who.int/nmh/global_monitoring_framework/en/index.html
Global voluntary tobacco target under adopted by Member States • Indicator: Prevalence of current tobacco use among persons aged 15+ years • Target: 30% relative reduction in prevalence of current tobacco Use between 2010 and 2025 • Example:Prevalence for country X in 2010 = 20%Absolute reduction by 2025 = 30% of 20% = 6%Target for 2025 = 20 - 6 = 14% • Monitor change (simple assumption) of 6%/15 = -0.4%p.a.
Tobacco Use • Smoking • Smokeless
New Zealand, observed and projected current smoking, women, 2000-2040
Country B, observed and projected current smoking, women, 2000-2040
Country C, observed and projected current smoking, men, 2000-2025
Analysis of changes over time and projected estimates to 2025. http://www.who.int/tobacco/publications/surveillance/reportontrendstobaccosmoking/en/index4.html
The WHO FCTC • Carefully constructed comprehensive antidote aimed at controlling demand for and supply of tobacco products • The target to be achieved through full implementation of the WHO FCTC and,(in particular, demand reduction measures including high tobacco product tax, large pictorial health warning labels, comprehensive smoke-free legislation, and bans on all forms of tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship).
TFI current focus: MPOWER, a package of measures each reflecting one or more provisions of the WHO FCTC
Potential impact of tax on prevalence rates Impact appears to hold for about 1-3 years and then require a new tax injection Source: WHO draft estimates *work in progress
Potential impact of smokefree public places on prevalence rates Source: Levy et al., SimSmoke model
Potential impact of marketing bans on prevalence rates Source: Levy et al., SimSmoke model
Potential impact of warnings on packets of cigarettes on prevalence rates Source: Levy et al., SimSmoke model