The Next Two Years in Video Surveillance (2010-2011)

1. The Next Two Years in Video Surveillance (2010-2011) Christian Laforte,President, Feeling Software Security Canada Central October 21, 2009 Toronto, Ontario

2. Failed predictions due to wishful thinking

3. Evolutionary predictions: More of the same

4. The Bottleneck Approach • Near-future developments aim to solve current problems • Key to prediction is to understand these problems and technologies nearly ready for market • There are 5 bottlenecks in Video Surveillance

5. The 5 Bottlenecks • Video Capture • Video Transfer • Video Storage • Public Acceptance of surveillance • Understanding Video

6. The 5 Bottlenecks • Video Capture • Video Transfer • Video Storage • Public Acceptance of Surveillance • Understanding Video* *Disclaimer: Feeling Software innovates in this area

7. Capturing Video Data • From CIF analog to Panoramic Megapixel CCD • Evolutionary: • More megapixels, better dynamic range, cheaper • Disruptive: • 360, panoramic cameras • Night vision PTZ (if enough time, mention fusion as well)

8. 360 Panoramic cameras • Demo (Immervision Panomorph)

9. 360 Panoramic cameras • Always records full panorama, unlike Fixed and PTZ • Cost: Fixed < 360 << PTZ • Durability: Fixed > 360 >> PTZ • Effective resolution increasing rapidly, still much lower than high-end PTZ • Most applicable to hallway corners, wide spaces (e.g. Entrance, conference rooms) • Prediction: in 2 years, most large installations will include them to complement fixed and PTZs

10. Transferring Video • Evolutionary: Faster networks, more widespread Wi-Fi coverage • Disruptive: • Gap between cable and ADSL increasing • Next generation of cellular wireless technologies

11. Faster broadband • ADSL peaked – limited video surveillance use • Cable still has space to grow: • Download bandwidth will double • Upload bandwidth will quadruple – enough for 16 MPixels/s for less than $100/month • In urban areas, multiple cable connections 5-10 times cheaper than one dedicated T1

12. Faster broadband for security • Remote monitoring (video, access control) increasingly affordable • Managed services increasingly competitive for SMB • Makes central monitoring for city-wide surveillance more cost-effective

13. Mobile broadband • Regular 3G is the tip of the iceberg • 3G LTE/4G become widely available in 2010 • Rogers already offers high-speed HSPA • Bandwidth is comparable to Wi-Fi, possibly even faster if you pay extra • Connectivity costs will be high initially, but may decrease rapidly

14. Mobile broadband for security • Transmit megapixel video from a cell phone, in real-time • Will have a huge, immediate social impact • Will partially displace niche technologies, e.g. mesh networks • Mobile security applications evolving fast • Higher quality video, more features, wider support (e.g. Blackberry) • Demo of Feeling Software’s iGuard

15. Transferring Video • Evolutionary: Faster networks, more widespread Wi-Fi coverage • Disruptive: • Gap between cable and ADSL increasing • Next generation of cellular wireless technologies • Standardization of IP Cameras

16. IP camera standards • Current situation: • Myriad of incompatible cameras • ONVIF and PSIA standards only proof-of-concept • 2 years: not enough for complete industry adoption, but ONVIF will likely dominate • Increase cost pressure on camera and VMS • Will have little immediate impact on closed solutions that bundle cameras and software

17. IP Camera Standards: predictions • In 2011, for cameras we can expect : • ~50% of large camera vendors have good support for standard • All smaller camera vendors will support it • Cheap cameras get 25% cheaper, slightly more powerful • Larger camera vendors differentiate with non-standard features

18. IP Camera Standards: Impact on VMS software • VMS industry increasingly divided • Very many extremely cheap, limited software • Very few high-end, highly-scalable software • SMBs will gravitate toward the first, very large organizations will need the second • DVRs already in this cycle

19. Storage • Evolutionary: • H.264 universally supported, no price premium • Latency will go down considerably • Storage cost and size decrease, fewer servers

20. Public Acceptance of Video Surveillance (Now) • Public fear driven by ignorance and hype • People removing their own privacy barriers: Facebook, Youtube

21. Public Acceptance of Video Surveillance (soon) • Regular people will send real-time video updates on crimes, disasters in progress • Increase perceived security threat demand higher security • Being watched by everyone  increased surveillance acceptance • Fears of “being watched” decrease, perceived benefits increase • More public cameras, more city-wide surveillance

22. Understand and Analyze • Capture, transmission, storage: costs decrease and performance increase fast • In contrast, approach to video understanding still very human-intensive, hasn’t changed radically since VCR • Faster, better but doesn’t scale nicely to 100s of cameras

23. Understand and Analyze • Information overload caused by large installations makes understanding video hard and expensive • Two approaches, complementary • Replace human decision making(Approach most often taken by analytics: very hard, rarely successful) • Optimize human decision making (3D surveillance)

24. 2011: Analytics finally useful? • License Plate Recognition (LPR)s • Transportation (e.g. traffic flow) • Face Recognition

25. License Plate Recognition (LPR) • High-end LPRs work very reliably • When installed properly ($) • My wife can attest to this • For law enforcement, very high ROI even with arguably high prices • LPRs here to stay, but expect governments to introduce them gradually to avoid population backlash • Expect cheap, much less effective models in 2011

26. Overview LPRs Image by D.C.Atty on FlickR

27. Traffic flow • Generally simpler problem • Movement along very specific paths • Cameras ideally positioned high and looking down • Objects tend to be separate (except car crashes) • Repeating movement patterns (except for weather) • Expect many success stories in the next two years, e.g. DUI arrests

28. Face Recognition • Every wants the perfect system: knows who everyone is in the picture, all the time, even when they don’t cooperate • Very hard problem, will not be solved by 2011, may never be solved • Best compromise is for specialized, constrained applications • Identification in a constrained lane • Face tracking and identification: Faceflow demo

29. Overview Some technology still only possible on TV

30. Understand and Analyze • Information overload caused by large installations makes understanding video hard and expensive • Two approaches, complementary • Replace human decision making(Approach most often taken by analytics: very hard, rarely successful) • Optimize human decision making (3D surveillance)

31. Live Video + 3D Environment • 3D GIS + 3D projections of video, automatic control of multiple PTZs • Feels like you’re flying a remote-controlled helicopter

32. Live Video + 3D Environment • See multiple videos in context, navigate across cameras in one mouse-click, always see nearby cameras

33. Live Video + 3D Environment • Navigate seamlessly across entire cities or floors of a building

34. 3D video surveillance • Overlay videos in a 3D reproduction of the world • Following a suspect = moving around • See entire floors or city blocks in one screen • Superimpose other information, e.g. position of alarms, personnel, suspects • Compatible with existing equipment and data • Plan and simulate later improvements

35. 3D video surveillance (2) • Feeling Software’s Omnipresence 3D • More demos online: www.feelingsoftware.com

36. References • ipvideomarket.info • Ton of information about IP video today and tomorrow • Only $99/year, well worth the money • Press releases: Rogers, Bell, Telus, Videotron • Ask your vendors for roadmaps • If they don’t want to share it with you under NDA, chances are they are not innovating • Keep them accountable • Contact me: claforte@feelingsoftware.com

37. Q&A and talking points • I will answer question first • Then open room for discussion: • Are other important problems not addressed by these technologies? • Do you agree with my conclusions? • Did I miss strong trends? • Contact me: claforte@feelingsoftware.com

38. About Feeling Software • Based in Montreal, Canada • Background • Decades of experience in 3D graphics industry • Alumni of ATI (now AMD), EA, Ubisoft, Alias (now Autodesk) • History • 4 years of high-profile 3D consulting • 3D game and film development tools used by 30,000 developers worldwide

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