What is Theory?

1. What is Theory? PO 390W: Research Design for Political Science

2. What is a Scientific Theory? • A theory is an interrelated set of logically consistent and parsimonious fact-like statements about a broad class of similar phenomena with the ultimate goal of explaining and predicting occurrences within that class • Interrelated and logically consistent: Complementary; no obvious contradiction • Parsimonious and fact-like: Says “a lot with a little”; reasonably descriptive of the “real world” • Broad class of similar phenomenon – most good theories have few temporal or spatial boundaries but are phenomenologically bounded (few plausible “theories of everything”) • Explanation and prediction: Theories are never perfect in both regards – but, if they’re worth their sand, they’re always useful in both regards

3. What does Scientific Theory do for Us? • Simplify a complex world • General explanation and prediction in the practical context • “Guidepost” or “magnifying glass” – general underlying impetus for actions in the real world • Example: Bush adherence to “democratic peace” and policy ramifications • General explanation and prediction in the analytical context • The basis for the systematic analysis of phenomenon for the sake of general scientific knowledge (our focus here)

4. “Levels” of Scientific Theory • Grand Theory: General Theories of Human Behavior • Examples: Rational Choice; Psychology • Middle-Range Theory: General Theories of Certain Classes of Human Behavior • Example: Realism – stemming from rationality, but dealing with the broad class of behavior known as international relations • Context-Specific Theory: Theories of more specific classes of activities or phenomena • Example: Power transition theory – Based on the tenets of both rationality and realism, but explaining and predicting war

5. Theoretical Development in Political Science • At this stage, the establishment of new grand or even middle-range theories of political science is relatively quite rare • Rather, most scholarship attempts to: • Work towards the establishment of new context-specific theories (still pretty rare) • Add useful refinements to existing middle-range theories (less common) or context-specific theories (most common) – Kuhnian normal science

6. Formal Deduction • Deduction involves the establishment of logically consistent theories for the purpose of hypothesis construction and, ultimately, testing against the empirical record • Social scientists (beginning with economists) have sought to increase the rigor of deductive theories of behavior by “formalizing” – normally through mathematics – decision-making and interactive processes • Especially useful for theorists who conceive of action as being the result of calculated, rational behavior on the part of individuals or groups • Thus, formal modeling, though mathematical, is a means of hypothesis generation, not hypothesis testing

7. The Utility of Formal Modeling • Allows for the comprehensive identification and systematic inclusion of various factors that go into decision-making • Identification of likely cost, benefit, and probability estimates allows for a complete picture • Demonstrates and articulates the logic behind theory and hypothesis derivation • Allows for the artificial or actual variation of factors that are central to decision-making • Mathematical nature allows for variation of values assigned to important decision determinants (comparative statics) • Allows for the specification of sequential and past-contingent changes made in response to others’ deeds in an interaction

8. The Basic Decision-Theoretic Approach: Expected Utility • The general-form expected utility model is the most widely applied decision-theoretic in political science (at least IR) • Each of these variables can be manipulated to fit particular situations if the researcher so desires Probability of Success Probability of Failure Benefits of Success Costs of Failure Expected Utility of an Action Expected utilities are derived for each course of action separately; when all are derived (e.g., solved for success), the highest one is chosen

9. Expected utility and the decision to invade Iraq Success = Depose SH Failure = ~Depose SH Costs, which mitigate benefits, include transaction costs of making war Thus, preference ordering is: Depose SH (no war) > Depose SH (war) > ~Depose SH Explains decision, but highlights difficulty in making decisions under incomplete info (were government’s estimates correct?)

10. Important Notes on Theory • Aim of theory: not perfection, but improvement • No theory is perfect, but they must improve our general understanding of phenomena • When theories are unsuccessful in explaining or predicting empirical phenomena, they must be discarded • Hallmark of science; means that other “belief systems” (i.e., morality and religion) do not constitute scientific theory • Difficult: What’s the benchmark? How often can a theory be wrong before it’s abandoned • Without sound theory, empirical analysis is useless • “Mythbusters”? Peanut butter consumption?