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Experiences with macromodelling for assessing policy impacts. POLAND

Experiences with macromodelling for assessing policy impacts. POLAND. How Poland implement s EU financial support. 2004-2006 5 Sectoral Operational Programs Integrated Regional Operational Program (IROP) Cohesion Fund 2007-2013 16 ROP (Regional Operational Program)

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Experiences with macromodelling for assessing policy impacts. POLAND

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  1. Experiences with macromodelling for assessing policy impacts. POLAND

  2. How Poland implements EU financial support • 2004-2006 • 5 Sectoral Operational Programs • Integrated Regional Operational Program (IROP) • Cohesion Fund 2007-2013 • 16 ROP (Regional Operational Program) • 3 Sectoral Operational Programs • 1 Polish East Voivodships Program

  3. + 2005: Polish voivodships

  4. HERMIN MODEL • HERMIN 1: 2001-2002 • HERMIN 2: 2003-2004 • HERMIN 3: 2004-2006 • Improvement of national model • Creation of 16 regional HERMIN models

  5. Problems with disaggregation in Polish modelling • National economy modelling Lots of data Lots of theory Lots of impressive econometrics Stable economic structures • Modelling Polish regional economies Very little data Some theory, often only of limited relevance Not much econometrics possible Evolving economic structures and instability

  6. How can we use macromodeling? • NDP2004-2006&NSRF2007-2013 impacts on the Polish economy • ROP impacts on Dolnośląskie economy

  7. Combined NDP2004-2006&NSRF2007-2013 impact on national Gross Domestic Product (%)

  8. ROP impacts: The case of Dolnosląskie Financial data for the evaluation of ROP was received from Dolnośląskie Marshal’s office and it is based on a draft of Integrated Voivodship Programme and Regional Operational Programme for Dolnośląskie Voivodship for the years 2007-2013

  9. ROP impact on national Gross Domestic Product (GDPM) of Dolnośląskie

  10. Conclusions Models are only a tool!

  11. Conclusions You need at least 2 models!

  12. Thank you! stanislaw.bienias@mrr.gov.pl

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