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Does Money Matter? Emile Servan-Schreiber NewsFutures, Inc

Does Money Matter? Emile Servan-Schreiber NewsFutures, Inc. It’s an important issue. When you want to bring markets within companies; For US-based public-policy markets; How much accuracy is at stake when you forgo real-money for play-money?. The Challenge. vs.

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Does Money Matter? Emile Servan-Schreiber NewsFutures, Inc

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  1. Does Money Matter?Emile Servan-SchreiberNewsFutures, Inc

  2. It’s an important issue • When you want to bring markets within companies; • For US-based public-policy markets; • How much accuracy is at stake when you forgo real-money for play-money?

  3. The Challenge vs

  4. More than 200 individual games New England Patriots over Philadelphia Eagles Price = Probability Acquire or lose points through a scoring rule

  5. Tradesports vs. NewsFutures(predicting NFL games) Servan-Schreiber, Wolfers, Pennock & Galebach (2004) Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14(3).

  6. Tradesports vs. NewsFutures(predicting NFL games) Servan-Schreiber, Wolfers, Pennock & Galebach (2004) Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14(3).

  7. Real Cash vs. Play Money(predicting NFL games) Using real-money doesn’t buy any additional accuracy as long as the traders are knowledgeable and motivated (upside). Servan-Schreiber, Wolfers, Pennock & Galebach (2004) Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14(3).

  8. Markets vs Individual Experts NewsFutures’ markets finished in the top 0.4% Competing against 1810 individual NFL experts In the Probability Football contest (rank = 6th / 1810) Servan-Schreiber, Wolfers, Pennock & Galebach (2004) Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14(3).

  9. Markets vs Individual Experts Thanks to their consistent accuracy over the entire season, the markets progressively beat most individual “experts”. Servan-Schreiber, Wolfers, Pennock & Galebach (2004) Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14(3).

  10. Google IPO Market

  11. Bush 2004 Contract 50% chance A Bush “blowout” or “too-close-to-call”?

  12. An unusually close election • Smallest popular vote margin of victory (2.7%) for an incumbent president since 1828. • It all came down to 60,000 votes in Ohio.

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