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European Perspective: Prospects for Sustained Ocean Observations in Germany and Europe

European Perspective: Prospects for Sustained Ocean Observations in Germany and Europe. Martin Visbeck Leibniz-Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel, Germany. Roadmap. Science Driven Programs NORDATLANTIK German Program EU 7th framework THOR Infrastructure opportunities

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European Perspective: Prospects for Sustained Ocean Observations in Germany and Europe

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  1. European Perspective:Prospects for Sustained Ocean Observations in Germany and Europe Martin Visbeck Leibniz-Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel, Germany

  2. Roadmap • Science Driven Programs • NORDATLANTIKGerman Program • EU 7th framework THOR • Infrastructure opportunities • EU 7th framework EU-AGRO • EuroSITES • ESONET

  3. Ocean Observing Systems Why do WE need a large scale ocean observing system? • Improve our understanding of the time varying large scale ocean circulation. • Provide real time estimates of the ocean state for a large range of applications. • Initial condition for interannual - decadal predictions (including the ecosystem). • Improve the performance of ocean and climate models (model - data comparison).

  4. Ocean Observing Systems Goal • Observe the ocean in a cost effective manner Objectives • Versatile platforms • Novel Sensors • Improved Communication • System integration and optimization

  5. International networks of sustained Global Ocean Observations Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) European Contribution to GEOSS Global Environmental Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) partof GEO

  6. Synthesis / Products Strengthen by international cooperation: • Data integration • Model Performance • Synthesis system • Stakeholder involvement in order to fully accomplish the benefits for society Observations Models Synthesis AssessmentsPredictions PRODUCTS

  7. Drijfhout & Hazeleger

  8. Drijfhout & Hazeleger

  9. Predictability of the THC Control simulations Perturbed runs Source: Mat Collins, CGAM

  10. Sensitivity of climate change predictions to oceanic initial conditions Source: Mojib Latif, MPI Scenarios forced with 1% CO2 p.a.

  11. Subpolar North Atlantic Atlantic Synthesis Subtropical Atlantic German CLIVAR: NORDATLANTIK The North Atlantic as part of the Earth System: The path from understanding the system to regional impact analyses. TACE Coordinator: D. Stammer ZMAW

  12. NORDATLANTIK goals: • Quantitative understanding of key processes, including freshwater budget of North Atlantic and water mass formation rates. • Identification of vital observing elements in key regions than can form the back bone of a North Atlantic observing and diagnosis system. • Development of approaches suitable to detect seasonal to decadal climate changes, including the improvement of coupled models and the use of the consortium’s observations for initialization. • Estimation of impacts of large-scale Atlantic circulation changes on European continental shelf regions, on the uptake of CO2 as well as regional sea level changes in the Atlantic. • Estimation of impact of modified thermohaline circulation on primary production and the fish stock of the Atlantic through numerical scenario run. • Construction of pilot diagnosis and evaluation system.

  13. Roadmap • Science Driven Programs • NORDATLANTIKGerman Program • EU 7th framework THOR • Infrastructure opportunities • EU 7th framework EU-AGRO • EuroSITES • ESONET

  14. Thermohaline Overturning – at Risk? (THOR) Proposal to EU-FP7 The Earth System and Climate: Functioning and abrupt changes ENV.2007.1.1.1.1. Stability of the Thermohaline Circulation Coordinator: D. Quadfasel ZMAW

  15. Thermohaline Overturning – at Risk? (THOR) • 1. Quantifying THC variability on time scales up to centennial and identification of the key processes and feed-back mechanisms responsible for this variability. • 2. Quantifying ocean state uncertainties derived from combined model and data analysis. • 3. Quantifying Atlantic THC flux variability on time scales up to decadal, providing benchmarks for model tests. • 4. Quantifying the strength of the Nordic sources to the deep limb of the THC. • 5. Quantifying the skill of coupled forecast models on decadal time scales • 6. Forecasting the THC variability on decadal time scales. • 7. Near real time data transfer from deep sea moorings • 8. Assimilation techniques for coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models.

  16. Roadmap • Science Driven Programs • NORDATLANTIKGerman Program • EU 7th framework THOR • Infrastructure opportunities • EU 7th framework EU-AGRO • EuroSITES • ESONET

  17. European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) Preparatory Phase proposal. EU-ARGO Overall objective Prepare European Argo contribution for sustained operation (By 2010 maintain 800 floats - presently operating 471) Overall budget €4.6 million over 30 months TimetableApril 2007 - Proposal submittedEnd July - Funding decisionNov-Dec - First funds available Coordinator: P.Y. Le Traon IFREMER

  18. EU-ARGO

  19. Specific objectives • Get European components of data processing operating fully • Clear data backlog • Expand participation in Argo activities Present countries France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK New countries in Euro-Argo Greece, Portugal, Poland, Bulgaria • Establish European User group • Improve technology (Sensor trials, monitor tech performance of all European floats) • Perform impact studies • Develop educational outreach activities Prepare to obtain extra float funding through GMES(Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) EU-ARGO

  20. Roadmap • Science Driven Programs • NORDATLANTIKGerman Program • EU 7th framework THOR • Infrastructure opportunities • EU 7th framework EU-AGRO • EuroSITES • ESONET

  21. EuroSITES • Integration and enhancement of key existing European deep-ocean Observatories • Atlantic Sites:Station M CISPAPESTOCTENATSO Coordinator: R. Lampitt NOC, UK

  22. European Multidisciplinary Seafloor Observation (EMSO) EMSO deep sea-floor observatories are deployed on specific sites off the European coastline to allow continuous monitoring for environment and security. They will be organized in a unique management structure at European level (and part of a global endeavor), for long-term monitoring of environmental processes related to ecosystem life and evolution, global changes and geo-hazards. EMSO will be a key component of the Global Monitoring and Environment System (GMES) and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).

  23. SFB Climate-Biogeochemical Interactions in the Tropical Oceans 1. How does subsurface dissolved oxygen in the tropical ocean respond to variability in ocean circulation and ventilation? 2. What are the sensitivities and feedbacks linking low or variable oxygen levels and key nutrient source sink mechanisms? In the benthos? In the water column?3. What are the magnitudes and time scales of past, present and likely future variations in oceanic oxygen and nutrient levels? On the regional scale? On the global scale? Coordinator: D. Wallace IFM-GEOMAR

  24. Tropical Atlantic Observations TACE: Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment Coordinator: P. Brandt IFM-GEOMAR & B. Johns RSMAS

  25. German Excellence Initiative “… excellence in marine science at CAU & partners …” “The Future Ocean” • understand futureocean change • explore new marine resources • cope with marine hazards

  26. Network Strategy “… new initiatives on FUTURE OCEAN issues …” • Expand existing multidisciplinary scientific expertise (14 new junior research groups).Strengthen Kiel marine research by enhancing the enabling infrastructure.Bridge gaps between education, science and application.

  27. New Programs in Europe and Germany Science Programs Infrastructure Programs EU - FP7collaborations THOR (and 2 other prop.) EU-ARGO EuroSITES EMSO/ESONET GermanyKiel NORDATLANTIK “The Future Ocean” “Tropical SFB” German-ARGO There is a continued strong interest to work with the international and in particular the US research and operational communities on all the aspects of “Climate and Ocean Observations”

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