Police data are bad, but are victim surveys any better?

1. Police data are bad, but are victim surveys any better? Applied Research in Crime and Justice Conference Sydney, 2013 Henk Elffers Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement NSCR, Amsterdam VU University Amsterdam Griffith University Brisbane Based on work together with Margit Averdijk Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule ETH, Zürich

2. Measuring the amount of crimePolice registration Dependent on • reporting to police (“get cases”) • burglary, assault, … • influenced by seriousness, relation offender-victim, own involvement, definition, … • priority of police attention (“fetch cases”) • drunken driving, drugs, … • short term planning policy • low police efficacy Police bad, victim surveys better? / 2

3. Measuring the amount of crimeVictimsurvey • Sample (response bias) • “have you in the past 12 months been a victim of • crime1, crime2, … , crime10 • Have you reported that to the police?” • A selection of crimes only • Memory problems • Forgetting • Telescoping:-----X----(-----X---------------] Police bad, victim surveys better? / 3

4. Measuring the amount of crimeVictimsurvey • Willingness to participate • Sensitive topics, Burden • Standard survey problems • Misinterpretation • “Violence” = “Foul language”? • Social desirability • First questions on how awful crime is • Then admitting not even to have reported? • Substitution (victimhood of partner, children) • Manipulation Police bad, victim surveys better? / 4

5. Measuring the amount of crimeVictimsurvey • If 1 / n says to have reported, can we than say that the amount of crime is n * as large as police registered data would suggest? • Only if all problems mentioned are minor • The inventors of the victim survey did research in the ‘70’s to check that Police bad, victim surveys better? / 5

6. Forward and reverse record checks • If we have a sample of VS-responders, that say they have reported a victimization, can we find that incident back in the police data? • Forward record check • If we have a case reported to the police, and the victim is surveyed, does he mention that case? • Reverse record check Police bad, victim surveys better? / 6

7. Victimisation survey VS: victimization reported to police VS: no victimization reported to police C A Police register B D C/(C+D) • Forward record check discrepancy: • how many cases of victimization that were reported, according to victim, were not found in the police register • Reverse record check discrepancy: • how many cases of victimization known to the police are not reported in a survey B/(B+D) Police bad, victim surveys better? / 7

8. Victimisation survey VS: victimization reported to police VS: no victimization reported to police C A Police register B D • Total discrepancy: • how many cases from the survey are not found identically in both registers (B + C) / (A + B + C + D) Police bad, victim surveys better? / 8

11. it has not hampered the development of a VS-tradition

17. Not optimal! (not for these authors (?))

18. Correcting police figures through VS • On quicksand BUT: • Rather small studies • Long ago • Survey methodology improved (CATI) • Police registratiuon improved (computerized) • Time to update these studies Police bad, victim surveys better? / 18

19. Amsterdam Mutual Coverage Study • Large scale • Total Amsterdam-Amstelland police database of reported incidents • January 2007-2006-2005-2004 • N = 281181 • City of Amsterdam continuous victim survey (O+S) • 10 months, April 2006 – January 2007 • N = 8887, 4300 victims, 1675 declare to have reported Thanks! Thanks! Police bad, victim surveys better? / 19

20. Special conditions • Exemption from the Privacy Chamber • All analysis on the police premises • Coupling on name/address/gender/age • After coupling immediate removal of all ID • Data or not available for other researchers without getting access privileges again Police bad, victim surveys better? / 20

21. Coupling • Coupling very tedious • Police uses official census names • VS telephone register (household), noting down names and addresses as understood • Maiden names • Multiple spellings • Family members • … • Smart algorithm on name, address, age, gender • Not perfect, but not bad either Police bad, victim surveys better? / 21

22. RRCD = 48% FRCD = 65% TDC = 18%

25. Conclusion • Victim surveys and police registration are shockingly different • VS: telescoping is major problem • (overestimating crime by more than ¼ • Newer methods mitigate this problem (?) • VS: victimisation of householdmembers mentioned 7% • VS: 29% could not be found at all • Only 1/3 found back unreservedly Too bad ! Police bad, victim surveys better? / 25

26. VS or PR? • My impression: more a VS than a PR problem • VS: more concern needed for quality • Period, bounding questions • Question interpretation? • Cognitive labwork necessary • PR: Observation studies during police registration Police bad, victim surveys better? / 26

27. Published as: Averdijk, M. & H. Elffers (2012) The Discrepancy between Survey-Based Victim Accounts and Police Reports Data Revisited. International Review of Victimology18/2, 91-107 DOI: 10.1177/0269758011432955. Margit.Averdijk@soz.gess.ethz.ch HElffers@nscr.nl Police bad, victim surveys better? / 27

28. Comments very welcome ! Police bad, victim surveys better? / 28