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Advances in Weather Forecasting Workshop in Norman, OK

Join us for the .WoF./.Hi-Impact.Wx.Workshop.1.April.2014 in Norman, OK, where experts from NOAA and NCEP will discuss the transition from RAPv3/HRRR-2014 to the NARRE/HRRRE era.

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Advances in Weather Forecasting Workshop in Norman, OK

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  1. WoF / Hi-Impact Wx Workshop 1 April 2014 – Norman, OK From RAPv3/HRRR-2014 to the NARRE/HRRRE era NOAA ESRL GSDAssimilation and Modeling Branch HRRR 1 Apr2014 10z +15h composite reflectivity(valid 02z) Stan Benjamin Curtis Alexander David Dowell Ming Hu Steve Weygandt John Brown Tanya SmirnovaHaidao Lin Georg GrellEric James Georg Grell Joe Olson Steven PeckhamJaymes Kenyon Tracy Smith Brian Jamison NOAA NCEP Geoff Manikin Geoff DiMego EMC colleagues Norman colleagues NSSL, SPC, CAPS, U.Oklahoma

  2. NCEP implementations of RAP version 2 and HRRR RAP RAP HRRR “Version 2” real-time at GSD, final testing NCEP “Version 2” NCEP implementation occurred 25 Feb 2014 HRRR Real-time experimental at GSD, testing at NCEP Planned NCEP implementation August2014

  3. Crossover in forecast skill between nowcasting/extrapolation vs. NWP 2013 3km radar DA - HRRR 2009 w/ radar refl assim (RUC/HRRR) 2005-7 Pre-radar assimilation ~2002 2014 HRRR

  4. Observations Used Rapid RefreshHourly Update Cycle Partial cycle atmospheric fields – introduce GFS information 2x/day Cycle hydrometeors Fully cycle all land-sfc fields (soil temp, moisture, snow) 1-hr fcst 1-hr fcst 1-hr fcst Back- ground Fields Analysis Fields 3DVAR 3DVAR Obs Obs Time (UTC) 11 12 13

  5. RAPv2enhancements over RAPv1 • Major changes for RAPv2 • Assimilation • – hybrid ensemble assimilation, • soil/PBL/surface/cloud assimilation • Model – • land-surface, PBL, cloud physics

  6. RAPv2 PBL moisture pseudo-obs MEM 21z 21 Dec 2013 Analyzed sounding RAPv1 RAPv1 RAPv2 RAPv2 Images courtesy Israel Jirak, Steven Weiss, Phillip Bothwell, Andy Dean, Storm Prediction Center Model-based sfcOAMLCAPE/CIN & EFF. SHEAR Improved PBL moisture structure, crucial for RAP / HRRR

  7. RAP version 2 upgrades

  8. RAPv2 Hybrid Data Assimilation RMSE Vertical Profiles -- 22 Nov – 22 Dec 2012 RAPv2 HybridRAPv1No Hybrid (3D-VAR) 03-hr Forecast Wind RH Temp 12-hr Forecast Wind Temp RH Improved upper-air environment

  9. RAPv2 Soil Adjustment Valid 20 UTC 03 June 2013 Soil Moisture Soil Temperature Cooling Moistening Drying Warming Based upon surface temperature and dewpointanalysis increments – new option within GSI. Critical also for HRRR Improved soil, near-surface temperature, moisture

  10. RAP Lightning Assimilation Rapid Refresh – 0h valid 02z 26 Jan 2012 Observed Reflectivity RAPv2 WITH lightning assim RAPV1 No lightning assim Improved convective coverage off the coast with lightning assimilation NOAA/ESRL/GSD NCEP Production Suite Review NSSL Seminar Series High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Rapid Refresh / HRRR 4-5 December 2012 04 June 2013 18 Feb 2014 RAPv2 for NWS Regions 10 10

  11. NOAA Next-Generation RAP / HRRR SystemForecast of Mid-Atlantic Derecho – 29 June 2012 Radar observed HRRR 12-h forecast Valid 11PM EDT Real-time HRRR forecast HRRR Experiment with 2011 RAP DA • Key 2012 DA improvements • PBL-pseudo-obs for moisture • Soil moisture/temp adjustment Composite Reflectivity (dBZ)

  12. 2013 HRRR Initialization from RAP 13 km RAP 13z 14z 15z GFS Ens GFS Ens GFS Ens Obs Obs Obs GSI Hybrid GSI Hybrid GSI Hybrid Cld Obs Cld Obs Cld Obs GSI cld Anx GSI cld Anx GSI cld Anx 1 hr fcst 1 hr fcst Refl Obs Refl Obs Refl Obs Digital Filter Digital Filter Digital Filter 1 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst Obs 1 hr pre-fcst 3-km Interp GSI 3D-VAR 3 km HRRR HRRR 2h fcst ~ +1:10 hr CldObs GSI cld Anx Refl Obs 15 hr fcst

  13. Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts Radar Obs 05:00z 18 May 2013 05z + 0 min 0-hr fcst3-km radar DA 0-hr fcstNO 3-km radar DA 18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O HRRR Implementation 4 February 2014

  14. Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts Radar Obs 05:15z 18 May 2013 05z + 15 min 15-min fcst3-km radar DA 15-min fcstNO 3-km radar DA 18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O HRRR Implementation 4 February 2014

  15. Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts Radar Obs 05:30z 18 May 2013 05z + 30 min 30-min fcst3-km radar DA 30-min fcstNO 3-km radar DA 18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O HRRR Implementation 4 February 2014

  16. Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts Radar Obs 05:45z 18 May 2013 05z + 45 min 45-min fcst3-km radar DA 45-min fcstNO 3-km radar DA 18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O HRRR Implementation 4 February 2014

  17. Improved 0-2 hr Convective Fcsts Radar Obs 06:00z 18 May 2013 05z + 1 hour 1-hr fcst3-km radar DA 1-hr fcstNO 3-km radar DA 18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O HRRR Implementation 4 February 2014

  18. 2013 HRRR improvements over 2012 HRRR CSI vs. lead-time 2013 HRRR 2012 HRRR 25 dBZ reflectivity 40-km verif Eastern US Real-time 1 June – 31 Aug respective years NOT event matched, but long-term and season match Improvements from RAP DA (moisture pseudo-obs, soil-adjust, hybrid)and from HRRR 3-km radar DA 18th IOAS-AOLS / 4th R2O HRRR Implementation 4 February 2014

  19. Candidate RAPv3/HRRRv2 Changes Changes with high/medium importance for overall forecast skill

  20. HRRR tests – 15-22 May 2013 - 25 dBZ CSI 3 km 25 dBZ CSI 20 km HRRR using 2014 RAPv3 IC with ens=0.75 DA, new physics (not yet 2m qv DA) HRRR in 2013 real-time w/ RAPv2 IC 25 dBZ CSI 80 km 25 dBZ CSI 40 km 1200 UTC 19 May 2013

  21. Summary of radiance updates for RAP V3 • Included new sensors/data • GOES sounding data from GOES-15 • amsua/mhs from noaa-19 and metop-b； • Included the RARS data (Just on Zeus now) • Removed some high peaking channels to fit the model top of RAP and removed the ozone channels • Implemented the enhanced bias correction scheme with cycling

  22. Radiance channels used for RAP V3 • AMSU-A(remove high-peaking channels) • noaa_n15: channels 1-10, 15; • noaa_n18: channels 1-8, 10,15; • noaa_n19: channels 1-7, 9-10, 15; • metop-a: channels 1-6, 8-10,15; • metop-b: channels 1-10, 15; • HIRS4 (remove high-peaking and ozone channels) • metop-a: channels: 4-8, 10-15; • MHS • noaa_n18, noaa-19, metop-a, and metop-b: channels 1-5; • GOES (remove high-peaking and ozone channels) • GOES-15 (sndD1,sndrD2,sndrD3,sndrD4): channels 3-8, 10-15.

  23. RH (%) bias vs. raobs, 15-22 May 2013 6h forecasts - RAP experiments Use of 2m qv background (instead of k=1 (~8m w/ σ=0.997)) Verif at 00z 6h fcsts • New in RAPv3 – GSI mod • 2m dewpoint measurement is at…. 2m • Moist bias introduced with use of k=1 background for qv • 8m qv usually drier than 2m qv • Moisture bias much reduced in 1000-800 hPa in daytime – 00z verification • Also evident at 12z • => improvement in convective environment RAPv2-fall ver RAPv3 w/ 2m qv DA RAPv3 Verif at 12z 6h fcsts RAPv3 w/ 2m qv DA

  24. RAP/HRRR Implementation Map HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones ESRL – experimental version NWS-NCEP - operational Implemented 1 May 2012 RAPv2 - implemented scheduled on 25 Feb 2014 running in NCEP/NCO testing now HRRR – Implementation scheduled for Aug2014 HRRR testing on WCOSS with real-time end-to-end runs underway (Curtis, Ming heroics) • RAPv1 – used in 2011 • Initialized 2011 HRRR • effective but too many storms • RAPv2 – used in 2012-2013 • Initialized 2012-2013 HRRR • Better surface DA, hybrid DA radar • HRRR – 2012 • Major improvement over 2011 (storm bias, coverage/accuracy) • HRRR – 2013 • 3km/15min radar assimilation • Initialized from RAPv2-2013 • Available 45 min earlier, much more accurate 0-15h storm forecasts, more reliable 2-computer

  25. RAP/HRRR Implementation Map HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones ESRL – experimental version NWS-NCEP - operational Implement early 2015 Implement 2016 Implement 2015 Implement 2016 • RAPv3 – to be used in 2014 • Will initialize 2014 ESRL-HRRR(v2) • Improved PBL, convection, sfcassim • RAPv4 – to be used in 2015 • Will initialize 2015 ESRL-HRRR(v3) • Target: hourly RAP ensemble for ensemble data assimilation • HRRRv2 – 2014 • Improved radar assimilation, surface assimilation, PBL/cloud physics • HRRRv3 – 2015 • To be initialized from RAP ensemble data assimilation + improved 3km physics (incl. aerosol-aware microphysics from NCAR/Thompson) NOTE: ~42h HRRR forecast run 1-2x daily to start by May 2014 for energy and severe wx forecasts – on DOE computer. (

  26. NARRE/HRRRERoadmap - Highlights – 2014-19 (for FAA Model Development & Enhancement Product Development Team) 2014 Implement HRRR (v1) at NCEP (convection, icing, terminal). • Develop RAPv3 and HRRRv2 toward 2015 implementations at NCEP. • Extension of HCPF and NARRE/TL into improved aviation probabilistic fields • Start on 3km-ensemble-DA on small domain retro test 2015 Implement RAPv3 and HRRRv2 at NCEP. • Implement regional ensemble data assimilation into parallel experimental RAP at ESRL into test version as part of continued NARRE development. Development of RAP and HRRR continues. 2016 Implement NAMRR at NCEP, using same single regional ensemble assimilation. • Implement regional ensemble assimilation to initialize RAP/NAMRR. 2018 Implementation for 6-member NARRE with ARW and NMMB members at NCEP for improved aviation probabilistic forecasts. 2019 Implementation of multi-member HRRRE with ARW and NMMB 3km-supercell-capable members at NCEP

  27. RUC / RAP / HRRR growth in number of model gridpoints*compared to Moore’s law* *NOTE: other aspects of the model system (# variables, etc.) also increased, making this a conservative estimate of model memory growth *NOTE: Moore’s law baselined to 1994 RUC1 HRRR (3) growth [dx (km)] RAP13 RUC13 RUC20 # model gridpoints (x 1000) Moore’s Law (2x per 2 yrs) RUC2 (40) RUC1 (60) Year RUC / RAP / HRRR model growth rate similar to Moore’s Law

  28. HRRR – 1800 x 1060

  29. HRRR – 1800 x 1060 (=1.9M) Initial HRRR-EnKF-DA test 670x360 = 0.24M 7.5x smaller than CONUS HRRR (aim for 10x smaller)

  30. HRRR-ens-DA demo – some numbers – HPC requirements in 2013 cores • 1,000 – current HRRR (CONUS fcst in 40-50 min) By 2017 (research), 2019-20 at NCEP? • 10,000 - HRRR-full-domain hourly EnKF – 80-mem • 10,000 – HRRRE with 10 members HRRR EnKF DA demo + HRRRE – mini-10% NE domain • 1,000 – EnKF DA • 500 – 10-member HRRRE, run to 6h only

  31. Directions for MDE for 2015-2025 to improve AHP forecasting & NAS efficiency • Further improvement in data assimilation • Ensemble-based DA, later toward 4d-ens-var • Improve cloud/hydrometeor assimilation use of radar, PBL, satellite observations • Probabilistic AHP fcsts thru hourly updated ensembles • NARRE, HRRRE, improved global ensemble • Update frequency • Needs to go to every 30 min by 2020, then to 15-min in early 2020s and every 5-min by late 2020s • Use full NWP with high-frequency radar and satellite data • Coordination with NOAA Warn-On-Forecast plan (improved 1-2h forecasts updated on 5-min basis with storm-scale ensemble data assimilation)

  32. MDE directions – 2015-2015, continued (2) • Resolution • 3km horizontal resolution may be sufficient (with higher-order numerics as used in the current WRF-ARW dynamic core) until computer power allows resolution of 200-500m or less • Vertical resolution must be increase to at least 75-100 levels to improve better forecasts of terminal conditions, convection (via improved boundary-layer development), icing (via improved vertical resolution of clouds). • There will be a trade-off between horizontal/vertical resolution and ensemble size. If there is fairly little improvement in depiction of convective storms from 3km down to 0.5km, then additional computer power may first be applied to ensemble forecasting and ensemble data assimilation. • 1km fixed nests around hubs may be appropriate. • Cloud microphysics • Further improvements in cloud microphysics are essential, including aerosol-aware microphysics and higher-order moment or even bin microphysics. • Fog • Again, increased vertical resolution in the lowest 200-400m and aerosol-aware microphysics will lead to an improvement for these forecasts

  33. MDE directions, continued (3) • Inlinechemistry • Should be used in all NCEP models • RAP-chem already running experimentally over N.America every 6h • Critical for improved visibility – near-terminal and slant visibility • Critical for cloud/hydrometeor effects • Volcanic ash • Real-time forecasts of volcanic ash with an hourly updated model (like RAP) are now feasible. Inline chemistry is available and is already running in an experimental real-time version of the RAP over North America. Real-time global eruption data is now available from the USAF and is being copied in real-time to NOAA/ESRL. • Boundary-layer physics interaction with land-surface, radiation, cloud physics • An integrated unified approach to boundary-layer, sub-grid-scale mixing is needed and already an area of initial research. • Output frequency • Down to 15min for selected 2-d fields from HRRR, expect full-resolution 3-d output at 5-15min output frequency • New emphasis on terminal weather • E.g., lake breeze at ORD • Wake mitigation

  34. MDE directions, continued (4) • Contrail forecasting • Will be improved significantly by aerosol-aware microphysics and inline chemistry • Global Rapid Refresh • FIM model now produces improved wind forecasts over GFS at 12h and longer durations • WRF/RAP physics can be included, 15-km in real-time • Computing advances expected • GPU or MIC or other, 2-5x jump in CPU/$ • New observations expected • Radar – MPAR, integration of CASA, TDWR • Satellites – GOES-R and NPOESS • Regional aircraft observations? • Vast increase in obs from 20-300m – proprietary – tower, nacelle, sodar

  35. Evolution of hourly updated NOAA modeling • Feb 2014 Rapid Refresh v2 – NCEP oper • PBL/soil/radar assimilation enhancements •  Improved surface forecasts, • convective environment fields • Hybrid ensemble-variational GSI assimilation • Model – improved cloud / PBL / LSM, • numerics improvements, updated WRF • July 2014 – HRRR (3km)- planned NCEP operwith 3km/15min radar refl. assimilation • 2015 – RAPv3 / HRRRv2 • NMM, ARW cores • Hourly updating with GSI-hybrid EnKF • Initially 6 members, 3 each core, physics diversity (stochastic only or with RAP/NAM/NCAR suites) • Hourly forecasts to 24-h • NMMB (+ARW?) members to 84-h 4x/day HRRR Rapid Refresh  NARRE NARRE / HRRRE at NCEP North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE) ~2017 2017 – Ensemble Rapid Refresh/NAM – NARRE (w/ hybrid 4d-ens/var DA) 2019? – Ensemble HRRR – HRRRE – (ultimately with hourly ~3km ensemble DA)

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