What’s Driving the Changes to Our Public Services

1. What’s Driving the Changes to Our Public Services Davy Jones Horsham District Community Partnership Annual Conference 16th April 2012 Davy Jones Consultancy

2. Main drivers for change • Reduce public deficit • Shrink the state • More Localism • More power to local people – Big Society • Climate change & greener government • Demographic social changes Davy Jones Consultancy

3. World economic crisis – biggest since 1930s –who caused it? Davy Jones Consultancy

4. Bankers ! Percentage of people in UK who think banks are well run has fallen from 90% in 1983 to 19% in 2009 – the largest change in public attitudes ever recorded in the British Social Attitudes series. Davy Jones Consultancy

5. Bankers ! Percentage of people in UK who think banks are well run has fallen from 90% in 1983 to 19% in 2009 – the largest change in public attitudes ever recorded in the British Social Attitudes series. Davy Jones Consultancy

6. Impact for public services • Councils revenue loss – grant, benefits & other changes (Brighton & Hove losing 33% of income over 4 years) • Councils “can expect 5-7% real term reductions per year till at least 2016/17” (Tony Travers in LGC) – 214,000 jobs gone • New responsibilities – Public Health, Benefits. Localism Act – & big changes to key partners (health/police) • Localism Act changes, NHS Act, Police Act • Impact on workforce – job losses, pay freezes, regional pay, pension contributions up • Impact on service users – service cuts at same time as living standards falling for most • Cannot be achieved by “salami-slicing” - what to do ? Davy Jones Consultancy

7. Impact for public services Davy Jones Consultancy

8. Solutions ? • Strategic review of all major services – “blank sheet” • Work across boundaries with all partners • Unlock knowledge/skills of staff in service re-design • Involve service users in improving services • Take local citizens/users with you: • service/budget literacy work • setting priorities/budgets • involvement in tough decisions • Equalities Impact Assessments vital ! Davy Jones Consultancy

9. Public sector deficit myth Deficit not same as spending – it is the difference between income and spending, so if income from taxes goes down… Deficit as % GDP is lower than for most of 20th century Davy Jones Consultancy

10. Shrinking the state • Western economy desperate for new markets • Public sector biggest opportunity • Explicit “privatisation” of NHS & Education is politically unacceptable • But one step at a time, extending choice…. opening up services to market forces….. • 50% secondary schools now Academies • NHS, Schools, Benefits, Roads… • New Open Public Services Paper – new right to choice legislation proposed Davy Jones Consultancy

11. Example: the NHS Davy Jones Consultancy

12. My concerns on the NHS • Conservatives’ explicit election pledge for no top-down reorganisation & no cuts to NHS • 33,000 NHS jobs gone already, according to ONS • 3 layers of management has become…7 layers ! • Costs estimates vary – most believe at least £2bn • Every health body/union opposes the NHS Bill • Only 12% GPs think it will improve patient care • Examples of hospitals in Cambridge & Warwickshire already seeking full privatisation • Up to 49% of services can go to private sector • Monitor “watchdog” run by private health experts • DH has refused to issue risk registers on changes Davy Jones Consultancy

13. Challenge of changing demographics • Number of people aged 85 in UK will double in next 20 years - impact on adult social care • Migration patterns – labour shortages • Pensions example shows need to separate fact from fiction ! Davy Jones Consultancy

14. The great pensions myths • Average public sector annual pension – less than £5,000pa (£100pw) • Average FTSE Director annual pension - £2.8m (nearly 500 times higher) • Cost of tax relief on pensions of top 1% earners (pensions of £150k pa) greater than entire savings in pension reform • Hutton report shows cost of public sector pensions set to fall as % of GDP for next decades Davy Jones Consultancy

15. The great pensions myths Davy Jones Consultancy

16. Climate change • 57 months to “point of no return” - New Economics Foundation doomsday clock • “Greenest government” ever ? • Government Feed-In Tariffs (FITs) “ a fiasco” (CBI) • Carbon budgeting & behaviour change – West Sussex CC & Brighton Davy Jones Consultancy

17. Recent legislation • Raised expectations ! Yet contradictory • NHS Act – is it localism ? • Police Reform Act – Elected Commissioners ….but over very large areas • Localism Act: General Power of Competence • Neighbourhood planning • Community right to challenge • Community right to buy • Directly elected mayors • Council tax referendum – is it needed ? • But is it a bit of a damp squib…? Davy Jones Consultancy

18. Localism & local taxation Doesn’t localism imply control of local finances ? • Council Tax – one of few levers to affect services • Parishes able to raise precepts • Business rates remain centralised • Recent Council Tax freeze • Was it a “bribe” / threats • Response of We Love Local Governmentwebsite • 3.5% “cap” – referendum trigger • Surely councils should set council tax levels, not Government ! Davy Jones Consultancy

19. Localism Michael Heseltine (2012): “The idea that we have local government in England is a fiction” Davy Jones Consultancy

20. Freedom stirs…… • LGA & Graham Allen MP pamphlet • Local authorities should be created in law as independent & their duties codified • Political independence must mean financial independence: central Government must be removed from financing councils • Half income tax take returned to councils through independent redistribution commission & other tax-raising powers Davy Jones Consultancy

21. Big Society Davy Jones Consultancy

22. Big Society • Some good elements – greater public self reliance, more say over local area, more community spirit • Beyond that? Still not understood despite relaunches • New Big Society Bank – but commercial terms only • Consultation to be launched on extending neighbourhood councils • Communities First local funds being distributed • Combined with huge cuts in budgets / services & support infrastructure, public cynicism is not unreasonable……. Davy Jones Consultancy

23. Big Society Davy Jones Consultancy

24. Public expectations • People expect services to be responsive, available 24/7, with appropriate choice • People expect to have a say – 72% want to influence local decisions, 32% feel they can • But they feel powerless – changes done “to them” • “Consultation” almost a dirty word – little trust in “engagement” either ! • All parties seem the same – no choice (Bradford West - maverick alternatives) • How do we break out of this vicious cycle ? Davy Jones Consultancy

25. Involve public in “tough choices” - Participatory Budgeting • Budget cuts: it makes sense to get citizens to help • Government “community budgets” programme • PB increasingly popular round the world – New York – $6m from city councillors’ delegated funds • Over 150 UK areas now experimented • Adur’s “Pot of Gold”, Brighton youth PB event, Gosport 6 PB events, Kent councillor budgets Davy Jones Consultancy

26. Contact Davy Jones 07932 616843 davy@davyjonesconsultancy.co.uk www.davyjonesconsultancy.co.uk Twitter:@davyjones2 Davy Jones Consultancy

27. Trust in Politicians Do you trust these people to tell the truth ? Judges 80% Senior police 73% TV journalists 58% Top civil servants 41% Ministers 26% MPs in general 26% Tabloid journalists 16% Two-thirds think politics is corrupt* * Sunday Times poll 1/4/12 Committee on Standards in Public Life, 2011 Davy Jones Consultancy

28. Getting things in perspective Billions of pounds Bank bailout figure of £1.3trn taken from Bank of England website Tax and fraud evasion by rich variously estimated at between £80-120bn Benefit fraud figure of £3.3bn taken from DWP report on 2009/10 Davy Jones Consultancy

29. Where has all the money gone ? Davy Jones Consultancy

30. Where has all the money gone ? • World: 12.5m millionaires (less than 0.2%) own 39% wealth ($47.4 trillion)* • Developed countries:, the top 1% of households own estimated 70-90% of all private financial and real estate wealth ** • UK: 0.3% of the population owns two thirds of the land** • UK: 1000 richest millionaires (less than 0.002%) have assets of almost £400 billion*** • Income gap between top and bottom 10% multiplied 14 times in UK/USA in last 25 years • “Only” 21,000 children die EVERY DAY from preventable diseases, hunger, lack of water**** • * Wall Street Journal, May 31 2011 • ** John Lanchester – Whoops 2010 • *** Sunday Times Rich List 2011 • **** UNICEF/WHO report September 2011 Davy Jones Consultancy