National Hurricane Conference Navy Priorities and Initiatives for Tropical Cyclone Research

1. National Hurricane ConferenceNavy Priorities and Initiatives for Tropical Cyclone Research Robert S. Winokur Technical Director Oceanographer of the Navy March 2008

2. Key Discussion Points for Today • Implications of new Maritime Strategy • Africa Partnership Station • Initiatives and priorities related to Tropical Cyclone Research • RTPs • NPOESS • NUOPC

3. Maritime Strategy Oct 2007“A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower” • Six key tasks or strategic imperatives: • Regionally concentrated, forward-deployed task forces to limit regional conflict • Deter major power war • Win our Nation’s wars as part of a joint campaign • Contribute to homeland defense in depth • Foster and sustain cooperative relationships with more international partners • Prevent or mitigate disruptions or crises

4. Maritime Strategy – Implications for Naval Oceanography • Warfighting readiness: • Environmental support globally • Leverage R&D initiatives to ensure warfighting benefits • Manage risk and understand uncertainty of predictions • Partnership building • National and international relationships to advance common national interests and global maritime security • Humanitarian assistance and disaster response • Rapid and sustained non-combatant evacuations • Potential impacts of climate change on natural disasters, social instability and regional crises

5. Africa Partnership Station • One of a series to build maritime safety and security in Africa • Focus on Gulf of Guinea • Aligned with broad international and US non-military objectives • NOAA involvement: • Fisheries, meteorology, hydrography • NOAA Pirata buoy • HSV Swift, USS FT. McHenry • Training for nine African nations

6. Rapid Transition Process (RTP) • Meeting the challenge of timely integration and transition from Research (6.2) to Operations (6.4) • Oceanographer of the Navy / Office of Naval Research / Commander Naval METOC Command / Program Executive Office • Rapid 3-4 year transition • Consistent with CNO Strategic Plan • Good Science – Clear Impact – Navy Relevance

7. RTPs Applied to Tropical Cyclones DIRECT • FY 2001: Improvements to Tropical Cyclone Model Forecasts • FY 2002: Modeling Tropical Cyclone Structure and Track INDIRECT • FY 2006: 4DVAR for Global Atmospheric Weather Prediction • FY 2007: Quantifying Uncertainty through Global and Mesoscale Models • FY 2008: High Resolution NOGAPS

8. 4DVAR for Global Atmospheric Weather Prediction • 4D assimilation provides a continuous picture of the atmosphere over the observation time • Provides a consistent framework for observations of cloud, precipitation, water vapor, ozone and aerosols affecting model temperature, humidity and wind fields • Particularly relevant in data rich NPOESS era

9. Quantifying Uncertainty through Global and Mesoscale Models • Global - mesoscale ensemble forecasting system • Provide high-fidelity, dynamically consistent probabilistic forecasts and estimates of uncertainty • Direct support to Tactical decision Aids (TDA) • Indirect but important enhancement to TC forecasts

10. High Resolution NOGAPS • Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System • Increased resolution will improve capability to assimilate observations and predict finer scale features such as TCs • Proposed development - 27 km horizontal resolution (current 50 km) - 60 vertical levels (current 30 levels) - semi-Lagrangian moisture advection

11. NPOESS • NPOESS Next-Generation Sensors and applications to Tropical Cyclone research, modeling, and predictability • Includes associated algorithm development at Navy Centrals (FNMOC and NAVOCEANO), and Ground Segments/ IDPS (Interface Data Processing Segment) • IDPS Installs at FNMOC Monterey and NAVOCEANO (completed by November 2012), improving time latency and direct ingest into 4DVAR NOGAPS • METOP, NPP Exploitation Improving Quality, Quantity, and Time Latency of Remotely Sensed Data Critical to improved diagnosis of intensity change, location of TC Center, and better track/landfall forecasts.

12. NPOESS Sensors • NPOESS Sensors with TC Applications for USN include: • Improved Imaging (VIIRS, MIS) • Improved retrievals and soundings (CrIS/ATMS), with more channels and higher vertical resolution • Hyperspectral capability (CrIS) • Possibility of passive ocean surface wind vectors • Improved hurricane ocean heat content products (NAVO) • NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Web Page (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html) • Host imagery products • Currently includes WINDSAT, AMSU, AMSR • Will likely include METOP, NPP, NPOESS derived products

13. NPOESS Sensors: TC Structure SSM/I 37 GHz H-Pol MIS Sensor: IMAGERY If based on WINDSAT design (large antenna), then resolution at all frequencies is improved over SSMI Compare 37GHz images to the right, note improved resolution, and thus enhanced TC Structure, with WINDSAT 37GHz Note structure of spiral bands, inner core, and double eye wall WindSat 37 GHz H-Pol Imagery courtesy of NRL Monterey Code 7500

14. NPOESS: VIIRS Potential - Nighttime Visible Examples of low-level TC structure, location of center revealed through reflected moonlight algorithm using the DMSP Operational Linescan System [OLS]—plan to exploit this capability further with VIIRS Channels Upper-Level Circulation Notice IR image (left) and nighttime visible (right) in the cases of Georgette (top) and Flossie (Bottom) Lower-Level Circulation ~200km SE Imagery courtesy of NRL Monterey Code 7500

15. NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction CapabilityPartnership (NUOPC) • Established to enable a Tri-Agency joint global atmospheric ensemble forecast system, • Integration of on-going efforts coordinated by a tri-agency management organization

16. Focused R & D NUOPC Vision (2015) • Tri-Agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs • National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF) • Managed operational ensemble diversity • Joint ensemble • Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather • Mission Specific ensemble products • National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion

17. The NUOPC Partnership • Coordinated technology development for future systems • Interoperable model architecture to allow for exchange of technology at the component level • Common Developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (DTC or VTC) • Prioritization of common operational needs • Aligned transition processes • Joint ensemble system with managed diversity • Share operational computing costs • Maintain capability of each agency to meet Agency unique operational requirements through driving downstream applications • Significant acceleration in operational performance • Project Manager responsible to Tri-Agency Executive Steering Group

18. Developmental Test Center Role of the Meteorological Community • Participation in committees defining NUOPC concepts and plans: • Common Model Architecture Committee • Technology Transition Processes Committee • Unified Ensemble Operations Committee (Information Assurance Panel) • Support national research and development Agenda – R&D community involvement • Support developmental standards and contribute to research needs of the operational community.

19. Where We Are Today • Two-year Phase I approved by Agency Principals • Full operational capability by 2015 with early IOC for select phases • Memorandum of Agreement drafted • Initial implementation plan and concept of operations developed • Interim Project Manager selected • Committee process approved • Requesting nominations for interim committees • Town hall session at AMS • Scheduling a follow on outreach meeting with other Federal agencies (FAA, NASA, NSF, etc.) to provide update and reaffirm support

20. In SummaryNavy Remains Committed • New Maritime Strategy – Cooperative relationships and humanitarian assistance • Parntnership building • Joint programs – NUOPC • Transition from research to operations – RTPS • Preparing for NPOESS • Reduce uncertainty in forecasts