Priorities for Tropical Cyclone Research: A NASA Senior Leader’s Perspective. Dr. Jack Kaye,

1. Priorities for Tropical Cyclone Research: A NASA Senior Leader’s Perspective. Dr. Jack Kaye, Associate Director for Research Earth Science Division Science Mission Directorate NASA Headquarters Presented at Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 3, 2008 With thanks to Scott Braun, Ramesh Kakar, Andy Roberts, Graeme Stephens, Bjorn Lambrigtsen, Amy Walton, Steve Ambrose, Bill Lau

2. NASA Hurricane Research Focus Areas Satellite remote sensing Sensor development Numerical modeling Field campaigns March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC

3. Satellite Observations of Hurricanes Quikscat TRMM Aqua Aura GPM CALIPSO/CloudSat JASON

4. A-Train Use for Hurricane Studies A-Train data - most importantly CloudSat information on cloud top height and vertical storm structure and MODIS brightness temperatures provide an opportunity to demonstrate and test this technique as we are now able to quantify the defining parameters in the prediction equation. The predicted storm intensity from cloudsat Luo et al., 2008 Independent best track data

5. Heavy Rain, Floods, Landslides in Hispaniola--1 November 2007 Analyzed in Real-Time by Global Hazard System (GHS) 3-day heavy rains over 250 mm over Dominican Republic related to Hurricane Noel produces flooding (deduced by hydrologic model running globally in real-time) and landslides (estimated from real-time landslide potential algorithm) Rainfall information is from TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Adler/Goddard Space Flight Center

6. Madagascar Floods and Landslides 18 Feb. 2008, 15 UTC 3-Day Rainfall Estimated Water Depth from Hydrological Model 35mm 75mm >125mm Southern Africa: Cyclone Ivan Sweeps Across Madagascar, Heads for Mozambique UN Integrated Regional Information Networks 18 February 2008 Tropical cyclone "Ivan" made its way across the Indian Ocean and slammed into Madagascar's northeastern coast on Sunday, 18 February. "We are 100 kilometres [south] from where the eye of the cyclone landed. There are very strong winds, infrastructure has been damaged, bridges have been flooded and we cannot pass. According to the BNGRC's Soa, "Ivan passed though highly populated areas and there was lots of rain. Almost all the towns where Ivan has passed are flooded now. The level of rivers and the sea is rising, and in the capital there is also risk of floods." Robert.F.Adler@nasa.gov Support from NASA Applied Sciences and Precipitation Measurement Missions (TRMM and GPM) programs

7. NRC Decadal Survey and Recommended Hurricane-Related Missions • Nearest-Term Recommendations • SMAP - soil moisture - To be initiated in FY09 budget for 2012 launch • ICESat II - ice sheet thickness (et al) - TBI FY09 budget for 2015 launch • CLARREO - baseline climate/radiation mission • DESDynI - radar/lidar for deformation, vegetation et al: • Longer-Term Recommendations - Hurricane Relevant Missions • Mission Time Cat Description Orbit Instruments • SWOT 2013-16 M Ocean, lake, and river water levels LEO, SSO Ka-band wide swath • for ocean and inland water dynamics radar, C band radar • GEO-CAPE 2013-16 M Atmospheric gas columns for air quality GEO High and low spatial • forecasts; ocean color for coastal resolution hyper- • ecosystem health and climate emissions spectral imagers • ACE 2013-16 L Aerosol and cloud profiles for climate LEO/SSO Backscatter lidar, • and water cycle; ocean color for open Multiangle polarimeter • ocean biogeochemistry Doppler radar • PATH 2016-20 M High frequency, all-weather temperature GEO MW array and humidity soundings for weather spectrometer • forecasting and SST* • GACM 2016-20 L Ozone and related gases for LEO/SSO UV spectrometer • intercontinental air quality and IR spectrometer • stratospheric ozone layer prediction wave limb sounder • 3D-Winds 2016-20 L Tropospheric winds for weather LEO/SSO Doppler Lidar • (Demo) forecasting and pollution transport

8. NASA Field Programs NASA ER-2 NASA DC-8 Program Manager: Ramesh Kakar Field programs coordinated with NOAA/Hurricane Research Division 1998 2001 2005 2006 2010 under active consideration

9. UAS Hurricane Mission 2007 • Mission Review Status • Mission Readiness Review completed 8/31/07 • WFF King Air is the Aerosonde escort aircraft • Mission documentation completed • Required mission documents signed off • Improving display capability in Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) in Google Earth • Hurricane Noel 11/2/07 • Flew Nov 2 from WFF • Flew 17.5 hours at 500 feet from edge to eye, several vertical profiles to 5000 ft. First time this interaction data has been obtained • Over 10 hours in the storm, before a controlled termination in the water • Map at right shows max potential range from NASKW & WFF without overland restrictions (white circles), current operational area in Gulf of Mexico (green), and Gulf oil rig no fly zone (red) • Flown jointly with the NOAA P-3 • Potential FAA issue regarding interpretation of authorization to fly between Wallops and the COA issuing authority at FAA

10. CloudSat 94-GHz reflectivity APR-2 14-GHz reflectivity APR-2 35-GHz reflectivity DC-8 sped down the runway during the first science flight APR-2 14-GHz Doppler velocity IIP-98 APR-2 Airborne Simulator2007 NASA TC4 Science Experiment Highlights The Airborne simulator of the Second-generation Precipitation Radar (APR-2) developed through IIP was one of the science instruments on DC-8 aircraft during the 2007 NASA TC4 (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling) science field experiment in Costa Rica. DC-8 flight crew and experimenters in Juan Santamaria Airport APR-2’s controller and monitor console One of the APR-2 science objective in TC4 was to study the cirrus anvil growth by combining its observations together with the measurements obtained by the overflighting 94-GHz radar on CloudSat. This figure is an example of several interesting datasets acquired for the investigation: the 14/35-GHz rain reflectivity and Doppler velocity profiles were obtained by APR-2 during a CloudSat overpass (the boxed region on the top panel). Real-time display of the vertical cloud and rainfall profiles measured by APR-2 A large convective system seen from DC-8

11. Targeted Technology Investment Pays Dividends in Science Return The ESTO IIP-1 funded High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) has flown as part of Fourth Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-4), the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) mission, and the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA) Mission Airborne Instrument Tech-nology Transition (AITT) may use HAMSR for future hurricane research on board the NASA Global Hawk The ESTO IIP-1 funded Millimeter Wave MMIC Temperature and Humidity Sensor - 118 and 183 GHz Radiometers Additional Infusions may include the PATH Decadal Survey Mission and the NPOESS-MIS The Integrated Multispectral Atmospheric Sounder (IMAS) 55 GHz MMIC Radiometer The ESTO ACT-05 funded Low Noise Amplifier (LNA) for MMIC Radiometers

12. Geostationary sensors grant shortest revisit time, but currently lack 3D and velocity information. NIS is a Ka-band geostationary Doppler radar: it would fill this gap With NIS 3D Reflectivity only Without NIS Forecast Time (hours) Forecast Time (hours) With NIS measurements With NIS 3D Doppler only Forecast Time (hours) Forecast Time (hours) E.Im et. al, Radar Meteorology Conference 2007 NEXRAD In Space (NIS)Potential Contribution of Geostationary Doppler Weather Radar to Hurricane Forecast OSSE shows predicted impact on Hurricane intensity forecast skill Hurricane Beta, 2005. W.Lewis et al. (2008) G. Tripoli et al. American Meteorological Society 88th Annual Meeting, 2008

13. 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Design innovations Target IPP: MMIC development $250K ACT: Signal distribution $1M Temperature controlled pads JPL R&TD: MMIC development $300K Beacon @ center NOAA Mission Study JPL R&TD: GeoSTAR calibration PATH Mission Study $250K NOAA Study NMP/EO-3 Phase-A All required technology elements developed & tested $150K $100K $150K MMICs embedded in waveguides $700K Absolute calibration Breakthrough MMIC performance ACT: 183-GHz MMIC development $1M IIP: GeoSTAR ptototype $3.3M GeoSTAR Compact receivers Raw synthesized image Low-power MMICs “Near Field range”, JPL Innovative array layout • Correlator: • Efficient • Redundant • OK for ASICs First images at 50 GHz by aperture synthesis Feedhorns: Low mutual coupling Processed image LO phase switching system: Ultrastable operation GeoSTAR Development History Total investments so far: $7.2M

14. Summary • NASA investment in hurricane research coordinates among four major areas, supporting both current science and advancement of capability for future • Satellites - Modeling • Field Campaigns (incl. UAS) - Technology Development • NASA provides competitive opportunities for community to participate in programs (e.g., ROSES 2008, A.16, Hurricane Science Research - due 5/16/08) • NASA cooperates closely with interagency partners in all of the above, especially in data utilization and applications • NASA takes broad view of tropical cyclones and considers hurricanes as part of overall effort of global reach and impact (e.g., International Asian Monsoon Year) • NASA works to communicate research results and technical capabilities to partners and public