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Evaluating Economic Impact of Transgenes

This study evaluates the economic impact of transgenic soybean lines on the US soybean industry, including yield and cost impacts. It analyzes baseline data, revenue and production costs, and the adoption rate of transgenic lines in the US. Findings will provide valuable insights for decision-making in the industry.

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Evaluating Economic Impact of Transgenes

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  1. Evaluating Economic Impact of Transgenes AFRI SDS Project Meeting Des Moines, Iowa May 8, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 Image Source: www.cbt.com.my

  2. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Timeline and Milestones As the economic analysis will be heavily dependant on the yield and cost impact from the transgenic soybean lines, the vast majority of the economic analysis must be conducted in the last year of the study.

  5. Task i. Establish baseline data • Establish baseline data on: • U.S. and global soybean markets • SDS losses • Utilize USDA World Ag. Supply & Demand data for 1a. • Combine USDA data with information from industry and commodity groups for 1b. • Example: The 2010 U.S. soybean crop was valued at $37.6 billion. SDS is estimated to have caused $0.82 billion in losses that year.

  6. Task i. Establish baseline data Source: USDA-ERS

  7. Task ii. Evaluate revenues and production costs • Generate historical average and projected prices • Price premiums/discounts for transgenics • Revenue impacts from yield changes • Generate production cost estimates • Utilize established costs for standard crop • Augment cost budget for transgenics

  8. Current Soybean Futures 11.52 11.45 Source: CME Group, 4/26/2013

  9. Soybean Production Costs Source: ISU Extension, A1-20

  10. Soy Prices vs. Costs

  11. Task iii. Analyze impact of adoption of lines in U.S. • Use the outputs from tasks i and ii as inputs for scenario analysis • Impacts on plantings, supply, demand, etc. • 2 scenarios: • Baseline: no transgenic adoption • Scenario: 50% adoption rate

  12. Task iii. Analyze impact of adoption of lines in U.S. Source: USDA

  13. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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