PRTC Long Range Bus Plan Preparation Invitation for Community Involvement

1. PRTC Long Range Bus Plan PreparationInvitation for Community Involvement Presented by Alfred Harf PRTC Executive Director December 2006

2. Presentation Overview • Introduction and Background 20 minutes • Review of Potential Scenarios • 25 minutes • Open Discussion and Wrap-Up 30 minutes

3. Why Produce Such A Plan? • Continuing population (and employment) growth • Conditions (in addition to growth) that are prompting more transit service requests • Mounting traffic congestion • Higher costs of automotive use • Growing incidence of people for whom driving is difficult or impossible • Long lead times for service expansion • Funding • Equipment acquisition • Facility expansion as required

4. Greater Prince William Area Population Trends 2000-2030 • Greater Prince William County area is currently one of the fastest growing in the region • Expected to continue, though local government policy decisions can influence magnitude to some degree Note: Metropolitan Washington COG, Round 7.0 Cooperative Land Use Forecasts - Prince William County and Cities of Manassas & Manassas Park Combined

5. Traffic Congestion • More wasted time -- on average, a motorist in the region now endures 69 hours of traffic delays a year (up from 51 hours ten years ago).* • Traffic growing faster than roadway network -- by 2030, daily vehicle miles traveled in region projected to increase 37%, while only 16% more freeway and arterial lane miles will be constructed.** * Texas Transportation Institute, 2005 Mobility Study ** Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, 2003 Constrained Long Range Plan

6. Higher Costs of Auto Use Source: American Automobile Association (AAA), assuming 15,000 miles per year, Average Gasoline Cost per gallon: $2.40 in 2005.

7. Growing Number of People For Whom Driving Is Difficult / Impossible • More seniors will live in area -- 429% more by 2030. • Seniors as a percentage of area population – also expected to grow --18% by 2030 (was 8% in 2000). Source: Northern Virginia Transportation Commission – “Senior Mobility Study”, March 2006

8. Lead Times • Funding • Fares cover only portion of transit operating expense and none of capital expense • Required subsidies take years to arrange • Equipment • Typically two years to acquire at minimum • Facility expansion • Several years to design and construct

9. What’s Our Starting Point? Unprecedented growth over past few years Average Daily Passengers Active Bus Fleet Existing maintenance facility near capacity • Short term plan to expand existing facility • over next two years • “Buys room” for next five years of growth • Longer term need for 2nd maintenance • facility – planning has started

10. Long Range Plan Preparation – PRTC Board’s Direction

11. PRTC Long Range Plan – Background • In 2005, the PRTC Board endorsed the development of a long range plan to: • Identify a preferred service policy or set of policies to guide the provision of transit services over 25 years • Evaluate the potential cost of implementing such policies • Balance what’s desired and what’s affordable • Identify traditional funding sources that can support the plan and supplemental funding required to fully fund it • Craft a transit proffer proposal for consideration by Prince William County in the context of the comprehensive plan and proffer policy • Authorized retention of consulting firm (HNTB) to assist in the effort

12. Long Range Plan Overview • What the 2030 Plan is: • A policy guide for bus service expansion • A set of estimated costs and ridership associated with bus service expansion • Estimates of traditional funding levels from federal, state, and local sources to defray a portion of bus service expansion costs • Estimates of resultant funding shortfall • A proposed proffer policy amendment to address the capital funding shortfall (County-based) • What the 2030 Plan is not: • A commitment to implement -- such decisions are made as part of annual budget process • A fully detailed description of routing or schedules of each new bus service • A commitment to the adoption of the proposed proffer policy amendment – the Prince William County Board of Supervisors will choose whether or not to adopt

13. Where we are now in the plan development process Work on Plan Began Focus Groups convened to gather perceptions of PRTC services now and into the future Summer 2005 Fall 2005 Winter 2005/06 Developed alternatives for analysis Analysis underway Holding public hearing to invite reactions to alternative scenarios Finish analysis/evaluation accounting for public reaction, cost/benefit analysis, and financial feasibility Develop proposed proffer policy Summer/Fall 2006 Winter 2006/07 Spring/Summer 2007 PRTC Board Endorsement of Recommendations

14. Scenario Overview Scenario # 1 Scenario # 3 Maintain existing service quality goals / policies – service expanded only to the degree that developing areas attain development densities comparable to existing service areas Expanded services wherever projected volumes of transit travel exceed a stated threshold Which direction should PRTC take between now and 2030? # 3 # 1 Scenario # 2 Scenario # 4 Expanded services to achieve high-end service quality goals / policies and accommodate growth # 2 Variation on Scenario # 2 so expanded services confined to more limited service quality goals / policies coupled with growth # 4

15. Service Quality Policy Objectives (Scenarios 2 & 4) – How Are They Defined?

16. Policies Are: Drawn from the Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual* (“the Manual”) Nationally recognized manual providing “consistent set of techniques for evaluating transit quality of service and capacity” Measurement factors have set of quality standards (graded “A” [best] through “F” [worst]) so standards can be locally chosen as stated goal / policy Only measurement factors suited for long-range plan are used * Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 100, Transportation Research Board; 2003

17. As defined by Manual Service frequency Duration (hours of service) Service coverage (area) Passenger demand vs. capacity (load factor) On—time performance Transit – auto travel time difference Commuter Service Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Measurement Factors Appropriate for Long-Range Planning? Local Service Yes Yes Yes No No No

18. Putting Service Quality In Perspective – What Are Our Existing Policies?(continued in Scenario One in areas warranting service) * Transit Supportive Areas equates to employment areas with 4 jobs/acre or more and residential areas with 3 dwelling/acre or more.

19. Scenario Two Service Quality Goals/Policies * Transit Supportive Areas equates to employment areas with 4 jobs/acre or more and residential areas with 3 dwelling/acre or more.

20. Scenario Three Service Quality Thresholds

21. Scenario Four Service Quality Goals/Policies * Transit Supportive Areas equates to employment areas with 4 jobs/acre or more and residential areas with 3 dwelling/acre or more.

22. Scenario Four Service Quality Goals/Policies(continued) * Transit Supportive Areas equates to employment areas with 4 jobs/acre or more and residential areas with 3 dwelling/acre or more.

23. Scenario # 1 – “Maintain Existing Service Policies”Expected Expansion through 2030 Origin Points Legend Gainesville/ Haymarket - G Manassas Area – M Woodbridge/Lake Ridge Area – W Dulles Area Tyson’s Corner Georgetown G M W M W District of Columbia G W W W Bailey’s Crossroads / Skyline Eisenhower Ave. Gainesville/ Haymarket / Innovation Manassas Area W Fort Belvoir Lake Ridge Dale City OmniRide OmniLink Woodbridge Montclair Quantico

24. Scenario # 2 – “High End Service Quality Goals/Policies”New Bus Service Expansion Areas in 2030 Origin Points Legend Dale City – DC Gainesville/ Haymarket - G Manassas Area – M Montclair – MT Woodbridge/Lake Ridge Area – W M Ballston/Rosslyn Area Dulles Corner Herndon – Reston Area DC M MT W District of Columbia Tyson’s Corner DC MT W M MT W M Bailey’s Crossroads / Skyline MT DC DC W Alexandria Area Gainesville/ Haymarket / Innovation W Manassas Area Lake Ridge Fort Belvoir Dale City OmniRide OmniLink Montclair Woodbridge Quantico

25. Scenario # 3 – “Service wherever specified ridership thresholds are exceeded”New Bus Service Expansion Areas in 2030 Dulles Area G M M Reston District of Columbia G M W Tyson’s Corner Origin Points Legend Dale City – DC Gainesville/ Haymarket - G Manassas Area – M Woodbridge/Lake Ridge Area – W W Fairfax City W Alexandria W Springfield Gainesville/ Haymarket / Innovation Manassas Area DC W Fort Belvoir/ EPG Linton Hall Lake Ridge Dale City OmniRide OmniLink Montclair Woodbridge Quantico

26. Scenario # 4 – “More Modest Service Quality Goals/Policies”New Bus Service Expansion Areas in 2030 Dulles Area G M M Origin Points Legend Central County - CC Dale City – DC Gainesville/ Haymarket - G Manassas Area – M Woodbridge/Lake Ridge Area – W Ballston Area Herndon – Reston Area CC G M District of Columbia Tyson’s Corner CC CC W CC W Bailey’s Crossroads / Skyline Alexandria W Manassas Area Springfield Area W CC DC Fort Belvoir/ EPG W Innovation Central County Lake Ridge Dale City Montclair OmniRide OmniLink Woodbridge Quantico

27. Resultant Service Levels* for Scenarios * Annual bus revenue hours

28. Next Steps • Conclude analysis/evaluation, readying draft recommendations based on: • Public reactions • Comparative costs and benefits • Member governments’ reactions • Invite public reactions to draft recommendations and then finalize • Seek PRTC Board Adoption • Seek member governments’ sponsorship of new/expanded services over time

29. Your Turn – Which Path Should PRTC Take? Scenario # 1 OR Scenario # 2 OR Scenario # 3 OR Scenario # 4 OR Other Between now and 2030