e-LUP Simulating land use processes – an interactive e-tool for SIA

1. e-LUP Simulating land use processes – an interactive e-tool for SIA Chapter 3 Forest Resources and Carbon Sink First draft O. Chertov St. Petersburg State University, University of Applied Sciences Bingen

2. Introduction • The paradigm of sustainable forest management (SFM) has a special reference to the great role of forest ecosystems (forest biome) as a powerful factor of restoration and stabilization of the local, regional and global environment and biota. • Carbon sink by the forest ecosystem with a consistent accumulation of organic carbon is one of the mechanisms of the ecosystem development, environmental regulation and restoration • The main methodological approach to investigate C sequestration by the forest is a consideration of this process in the “tree-soil” system • The main objective of this Chapter is a conceptual, experimental and simulated comparison and analysis of different silvicultural regimes at stand and landscape levels to find some options that meet C&I of SFM and have highest positive SIA values.

5. Plan of the Chapter • Introduction • Short theoretical analysis of the problem • Elaboration of a preliminary scale for the numerical SIA • Description of the main silvicultural regimes with the preliminary evaluation of their carbon sequestration potential at stand and landscape level • Demonstration of the simulation experiments for the determination of the effect of climate change and silvicultural systems on • Discussion andConclusion

6. The EFIMOD model • The EFIMOD model (Chertov and Komarov, 1997; Chertov et al., 1999, 2003; Komarov et al., 2003, 2006) will be used in Chapter 3 • It is a spatially explicit individual-based stand-level simulator for several boreal and temperate tree species on different forest soils • Tree biomass growth is modelled depending on the tree ‘silvics’, tree’s position within the stand, and local light and available soil nitrogen for every tree • Soil processes are modelled using a model of SOM dynamic in forest ecosystems ROMUL (Chertov et al., 1996,2001). It considers the dynamics of organic matter separately in organic layer and mineral topsoil using a concept of Humus types A.S. Komarov, O.G. Chertov, Mikhailov et al. 2006. Modelling Organic Matter Dynamics in Forest Ecosystems. Nauka Publ., Moscow. 450 p. In Russian, in print

7. Theoretical analysis • The section is devoted to the review of main mechanisms and factors of forest ecosystem dynamics from point of view of carbon budget • The impact of the following environmental factors and ‘natural’ disturbances on forest ecosystems discussed: climate, forest site/soil, forest fire, insect attack, windfall, landslides • The anthropogenic factors of carbon budget dynamics are as follows: also forest fires, wetland drainage, deforestation and transformation of forest lands, industrial pollution, recreation • The conclusion is that the recent European forests are strongly transformed by the anthropogenic factors for millenniums

8. Concept of SIA • Because EU concept of SIA is a development of EIA the interpretation of SIA can have two meanings: • Impact of ‘three pillars’ (environmental, economic and social) on sustainability, or • Impact of sustainability on these ‘pillars’ • In relation to the land-use the first approach seems to be not corresponding to the reality because the environmentally oriented land-use, for example SFM, is a factor that determine or create a question of its impact on economical and social ‘pillars’ • In this context, the consideration of various management regimes in relation to their sustainability to find optimal solution is a main object of this draft • In turn, the impact of environmental sustainability on economy and society should be further discussed here

9. Numerical evaluation of SIA: a preliminary scale • Sustainability impact assessment (SIA) is based on ‘three pillars’: environmental, economical and social. It seems that SIA should have some kind of a numerical evaluation scale to have a possibility for the more objective comparison of different land-use regimes and their components • Because the concept of three pillars, the evaluation index should have three components reflecting corresponding impact values. • Minimally, the values themselves can be represented as a three-point scale: -1 negative, 0 neutral, and +1 positive sustainability impact (or impact on sustainability). • The SIA index can be represented as an expression, for example -1/+1/0

10. Examples of the compilation of SIA evaluation marks

12. Case study 1. The effects of climate changes and nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration potential: application of the EFIMOD Simulations using initial data from the EU Project CT98-4124 ‘RECOGNITION’ (in press) • 7 sites selected (4 Scots pine and 3 Norway spruce: 2 from Finland, 2 from Sweden, 2 from Germany and 1 from Scotland) to represent Scandinavian and Central West European conditions • A specific set of climate and N deposition scenarios at the interval 1921-2080 was used allowing to have the results for stable climate with low and with high N deposition, climate change only, and climate change with high N deposition • The even-aged pure stands with regular thinning and clear cutting at 80-year stand age were simulated • The inter-comparison of the ecosystem parameters at the end of simulation with the different climatic scenarios allowed to specify the effects of N deposition and climate changes

13. Differences in growing stock N – nitrogen deposition increasing, T – temperature increasing, Sum – cumulative effect of nitrogen deposition and temperature increasing

14. Difference of SOM-C pool in forest soils

15. Difference of total ecosystem Carbon pool The results of this experiment show the uniformity of forest ecosystem reactions to the climate change and nitrogen deposition: increasing of biomass C & ecosystem C, and decreasing of soil C

16. Case study 2. Wood productivity and soil C dynamics at different rotation length in Norway spruce forest • The aim of this modelling exercise is a demonstration of some results that can be useful for the understanding carbon balance and wood production in forest ecosystems under various silvicultural regimes • The experimental data on soil and climate for very productive Höglwald Norway spruce ecosystem have been used as initialparameters(Kreutzer and Göttlein, 1991) • The time of simulation is 1961 -2050 with temperature increasing and rather high atmospheric nitrogen deposition • Initial stand density was 10000 3-year seedlings per hectare • the rotation length was 15, 30, 45 and 90 years; there was regular thinning at 45 and 90-year rotations. • Two types of cutting was simulated: ecological with cutting residues on the harvested area, and whole tree harvesting (WTH) with removing all above-ground biomass

17. Results

20. The results of this model experiment show that • the short rotation forest management has twice lower wood productivity in comparison with 90-year rotation at a long-term time interval • the SOM carbon stays stable and even with a trend to decreasing at 15-years rotation with WTH, but there is a small soil carbon growth at 45- and 90-year rotations

21. Landscape (regional) level silvicultural regimes • There is few works summarising the real data on the effects of different silvicultural regimes at landscape level, and some publications on the application of the simulation modelling • The simulation study of the environmental and silvicultural effects of combination of forest management regimes at a landscape level has two varieties: • The first one is a comparison of different regimes that modelled for the whole territory (landscape) • The second variety represents a simulation of the combination of different regimes in the landscape (enterprise, region)

22. Case study 3. A comparison of ecological consequences of four silvicultural regimes on the forest territory

23. Simulation scenarios • Natural development (Nat). This scenario is a full protection of the forest in all forest compartments without cutting and catastrophic disturbances. • Russian legal practice (LR). The scenario describes a managed forest with 4 thinning (at 5, 10, 25 and 50 years), the final clear cutting (at 90 year age for coniferous and oak, and 60 year age for birch and lime), with a successful natural regeneration, with a mixture of deciduous species, and with a removal of cutting residues corresponding to their burning on clear cut area. • Selective cutting system (SC). Managed forest with 2 thinning and then selective cuttings each 30 years in uneven-aged stands (30% of basal area from above). • Illegal practice (IL). It is a heavy upper thinning and removing of the best trees, clear cutting without conservation of natural regeneration or planting seedlings following by a domination of deciduous young stands and full removal of cutting residues as well 200 year simulation was performed for every silvicultural regime

24. This modelling exercise was performed with the integration of the EFIMOD results and the CommonGIS software for the spatial exploratory data analysis (SEDA) of cartographic data and interactive geovisualisation of the results of modelling (Andrienko et al., 2003; Andrienko and Andrienko, 2005; Chertov et al., 2005)

25. Interactive maps at the 200-year step of simulationTree biomass C, ton ha-1

26. Soil C, ton ha-1

27. Time graphs representation of profiles of time series for each forest compartment in four management scenarios in the CommonGIS

28. Generalized time series of main carbon pools on the territory, ton ha-1

29. Cumulative NPP for all the territory, Net ecosystem exchange, NEE ton per 200-year period ton ha-1 year-1

30. Combination of silvicultural regimes at landscape level The main principle should be a creation of protective, productive and recreational zones in the landscape A hypothetical example of the combination of the silvicultural regimes

31. An example of preliminary SIA marks of carbon sequestration potential on the level of forest stand and for some silvicultural regimes in plain and hilly landscapes in Europe

32. A template of proposed silvicultural regimes for different natural and economic conditions to maximize carbon sink and SIA values in forest ecosystems on landscape level To be filled in *Regional patterns: 1 Industrial and urban agglomerations with fragmented forests, developed road network, dense population and industrial pollution. 2. Agricultural regions with fragmented forests, developed infrastructure and dense population. 3. Distant areas (for example, mountains) with developed road network and relatively low population density. 4. Industrial and urban agglomerations with fragmented forests, satisfactory road network, dense population and high industrial pollution. 5. Agricultural and forest regions with various road network density and relatively dense population. 6. Distant areas with a sparse road network (or even without roads) and low population density. ** Description of the regimes or their combination must be here, for example, regional pattern 4 in boreal climate: ‘Combination of recreational and protective (natural development) forest regimes with a small proportion of intensive forest plantations with fertilization (fore example, Christmas tree arboriculture). Afforestation of degraded lands. No clear cutting of any types desirable’

33. Conclusion • The data represented above can serve as some kind of manual for the decision-makers of local (forest enterprise, ownership) and regional level • The decision-makers’ priorities and knowledge of current and expected environmental, economic, historical and social situation in the territory under consideration play a crucial role for the selection of the best strategic and tactical silvicultural, technological, economic and social methods that meet all C&I of SFM with positive SIA marks • So, it will be always a combination of scientific knowledge, IT technology and the expert evaluation

34. Thank you!