240 likes | 357 Views
Methods for evaluating freshwater ecosystem services in support of decision making. David Yates (RAP), Claudia Tebaldi (CGD), Kathleen Miller (ESIG), Susi Moser (ESIG) Other Collaborators: David Purkey, Natural Heritage Institute, Sacramento California
E N D
Methods for evaluating freshwater ecosystem services in support of decision making David Yates (RAP), Claudia Tebaldi (CGD), Kathleen Miller (ESIG), Susi Moser (ESIG) Other Collaborators: David Purkey, Natural Heritage Institute, Sacramento California Hector Galbraith, University of Colorado, Boulder Annette Huber-Lee, SEI/Tellus, MIT Boston Others.. (University of California Davis and Stanford University)
Physical Hydrology Watershed Management • Decisions: • Sykes Reservoir • FERC Relicensing • Conjunctive Use • System Operations Climate & Climate Change Integrated Decision Support relevancy credibility Socio-Economics • Decision-Makers • CALFED • State Assembly • California Water Dept • Others legitimacy Ecosystem Services
Integrating framework placed in the contextof a “Trade-off” landscape Water for nature Water for agriculture Water quantity Water quality Seasonality of flow Regulation Domestic water Water for recreation Water for industry
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Seamlessly integrating watershed hydrologic processes with water resources management.
Ecosystem Service Evaluation Ecosystem services
H H O O 2 2 Ecosystem Ecosystem Quantity Quantity Goods and Goods and components components • • Quality Quality Services Services processes processes Seasonality Seasonality • • Governance Governance Ecosystem services Ecosystem Service Evaluation
Ecosystem services in the SFBW Extractable; Direct Use; Indirect Use
Bayesian model gives regional distributions of seasonal changes But what is needed are high resolution time series for the entire watershed Climate and climate change
Ecosystem Service Prioritization and Selection Stakeholder Process Ecosystem Service Assessment Properties (ESAPs) ADAPTAT ION Ecosystem Service Indicators/Params (ESIPs) The Inter-Disciplinary Framework Scenario Development: Climate, Land, Pop Water Resources Modeling ESIP/model estimate variance Translation Functions (Models) Change in Eco Service
Stylized schematic of Sacramento (garnering credibility) • Sacramento River Basin: • 50+ watersheds • Reservoirs • Central Valley Groundwater • Canals and Diversions • Demands: • Ag. & Urban Atm. • Municipal and Industrial • Reserves, Instream • Regional Diversions
Calibration and Validation • Model Evaluation (1961-1999): • Flows Along Mainstem and Tributaries • Reservoir Storage and Release • Trinity Diversion • Agricultural Water Demand • Groundwater Storage Trends • Yolo Bypass Flood Inundation • Sacramento River Water Temperature
Reservoir Storage Reproduction FOLSOM Reservoir Old Operating Rule New Operating Rule
Presently, difficult to determine densities of hydrologic variables Decisions on Adaptation Planning (e.g. new storage infrastructure) Probabilities of Climate Change Probabilities of change in Hydrological Variables “Joint” scenarios flow
Presently, difficult to determine densities of hydrologic variables Decisions on Adaptation Planning (e.g. new storage infrastructure) Probabilities of Climate Change Probabilities of change in Hydrological Variables ? P flow T
Western North America Climate Scenarios What is the joint probability? CSIRO and CCC heavily weighted in determining the winter distributions
Western North America Climate Scenarios But not consistent- These same models are given less weight for the summer distributions
A stage along the way to getting at probabilities… Stylized Scenarios using K-nn WmDry WmDryT2 WtWnt WtWntT2 WtWntT4 VWtWntr VWtWntrT3 (Yates et al. 2002)
River Flow Assumed No Irrigation or Storage Irrigation w/ all Available Storage
Water Temperature Assumed No Irrigation or Storage threshold Irrigation w/ all Available Storage threshold
Plans for ‘05 • Refine Water Resources Model to able to address relevant issues • FERC Re-licensing of the Yuba, American Bear • Sykes Reservoir Analysis • Others.. • 2. Regional Scenarios • Develop complete probabilistic approach w/ Bivariate Bayesian Model • Refine Ecosystem service evaluation by placing into an uncertainty construct • Legitimacy: Continue to engage relevant stakeholders in model development and application process, especially utility of probabilistic results!