(AIACC. AF90 NORTH AFRICA PROJECT) Assessment of Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability to Climate Change on North Afric

1. (AIACC. AF90 NORTH AFRICA PROJECT) Assessment of Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability to Climate Change on North Africa: Food Production and Water Needs AIACC Regional Workshop (23 – 27 March.Dakar.Senegal)

2. Tunisien contribution Stakeholders engagement By Survey analysis in Kairouan region. Raoudha Mougou, Amel Nafti and Riadh Chatteli

3. Vulnerability. Tunisia climate (Aride and Semi aride (75 % of total area) WATER RESOURCES LIMITED VARIABLE MEDIODRE QUALITY CLIMATE CHANGE • Increasing rainfall variability •Increasing temperature • Increasing evaporation rate • Increasing water deficit • POPULATION INCREASE • Agricultural, industrial, touristic activity Unbalance between offer and demand

4. Vulnerability. Distribution of agricultural land use in Tunisia Atlas des solstunisiens. (Mtimet 1999.) Fruit trees 2millions of hectares 1.3 millions of hectares olives trees 40% of cultivated areas 60 % of exported food products Cereals 1.6 millions of hectares. 34% of cultivated areas 16% of total production.

5. Vulnerability. The importance of Rainfed agriculture (Data 1993)

6. Climate impacts. Kairouan (Aride) Tunis (Semi aride) Jendouba (Semi aride) Bizerte (Humide) Wheat water deficit (Different bioclimatic regions) (Mougou et Hénia. 1996)

7. Climate impacts. Q/ha Cereals yields in the North and the Centre regions

8. Climate impacts. Effect of irrigation on cereals production

9. Climate impacts. Average cereal yields in Kairouan regionRainfed cereals and Irrigated cereals

10. Climate impacts. Mean yield during rainy and dry years (1995 to 2003) in Kairouan region - The wheat yield during rainy years are too higher than dry years. - The yield increase during the rainy years ranges between: 178 percent (Sbikha) and 80 percent (Ouslatia) of dry years yields.

11. Stakeholders engagement By Survey analysis in Kairouan region • The first beneficiaries are the smalls farmers. • - Materiel conditions • Knowledge • Nombre (about 80%)

12. Survey analysis Survey objectives • - to define • the rate of rainfed cereals in the farms; • the farmers behaviour toward the climate variability effect on agricultural production; • the current and future vulnerability of rainfed cereals; • to analyse the capability of the farmers to adapt to climate variability; • to list the adaptation methods already used in the farms; • - to specify what prevent the farmers to adapt to current and future climate variability.

13. Survey analysis How the survey analysis have been made ?- Who was involved? and here We are here and here

14. Vulnerability. • Kairouan region • - The most vulnerable region because of high climatic variability. • Water deficit and drought represent a permanent risk for rainfed agriculture. • Drought may occurs: 1 year out of 3 or out of 4. • Severely dry years (deficit > 50%), drought persistence: more frequent in the south and the center than in the North. • Moderate temperatures, but very hot conditions frequent may occur from May to September • -High temperatures (45°C in August) may affect cereal production when they occur in the growing season by increasing the evaporation rate.

15. Survey analysis Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Environnement et des Ressources Hydrauliques INRGREF Questionnaire destiné aux agriculteurs Cadre de l'enquête : Projet sur « l'Evaluation de l'Impact et Adaptation au Changement Climatique » AIACC AF 90 : North Africa Project Gouvernorat de Kairouan Enquête N° :………………… Menée par : ………………………………… Date :……………………………………….

16. Survey analysis 1- Localisation de l’exploitation 2- Identification de l'agriculteur 3- Systèmes de production et modes de conduite 3.1- Répartition des cultures 3.2- Pratiquez- vous l’élevage ? 4- Occupation des parcelles 5- Techniques utilisées (Céréales en pluvial)  6- Variation des rendements (Céréales en pluvial) 7- Causes des variations des rendements 8- Causes des variations de la production 9- Climat et production 10- Etat des connaissances des agriculteurs sur le changement climatique 11- Mesures d'adaptation

17. Survey analysis Survey Sampling Methods 1500 of them have changed their production system to market gardening 3500 farmers that produce cereals in the Kairouanregion A significant sample must contain at least 5% of total population. 100 farmers ~ 2000 farmers represent cereal production We limited the survey to 3% of total population. 58farmers The sampling method: “Random Sampling”

18. Survey analysis Characteristics of the target farmers • Farmers • - Average age: 58 years • Schooling: • - Illiterate: 55.17 % • - Primary education: 36.20 % • - Secondary: 5.17 % • Higher: 3.45 % • Farms • - Average farm size: 29.83 ha • - Percentage of farms smaller than 10 ha: 34.5 % • - Percentage of farms between 10 ha and 50 ha: 53.5 % • - Percentage of farms larger than 50ha: 12 % Low schooling rate The farms size is relatively highcomparedto the average farms size.

19. Survey analysis Farmers attitude toward climat The totality of farmers expressed their suffering from difficult climatic conditions and drought years (1997 to 2002). Even during the rainy years rainfall distribution can be inadequate for the crops. Dry conditions in March decrease cereal production and result in a loss of income for the farmer. - 96.5 % of agricultural output is determined by climate. - 12 % knows the possibility of adaptation methods to climatic change. - 91.4 % of the farmers use their own methods of adaptation to current climate variability. - 48.4 % of them have the will to build a well, but they found administrative, financial and land constraints.

20. Survey analysis Adaptation methodes used by the farmers  Changes of sowing date if the autumn is drier than normal;  Storage of fodder to ensure the livestock food;  Cactus cultivation for fodder in dry years;  Changes in cultural techniques ;  Ovine breeding is considered as a valuable option and interesting adaptation strategy, (the potential resistance of sheep, their capacity for using a fodder resources, the possibility of using crops without alternative value, such as cactus, that is an added value of sheep production  The choice of crop varieties is not considered important and is not listed as an adaptation option by the majority of the farmers.  Supplementary Irrigation

21. Survey analysis Irrigation •  Supplementary irrigation is applied by 25.86 % of the farmers. • Irrigation is applied mainly to fodder crops for livestock. • The irrigated surface represent only 3.26 % of the total cultivated area because of: • the small amount of water available; • the financial constraints to purchase irrigation materials. • All farmers that use supplemental irrigation are conscious of the advantages of fertilization and its management (date, frequencies and quantities). •  Rainfed cereals are the principal activity even for the farmers who have access to water.

22. Survey analysis To conclude Previous analyses of drought management in Tunisia that variability in cereal production is explained by the variability of rainfall with a rate of: 78 % for the North; 50 % for the Center; 40 % for the South. This is confirmed by our study that shows that in Kairouan region rainfall variability explains 56 % of the cereal yield variability According to farmers: 96.5 % of agricultural output are determined by climate The farmers over-estimate the effect of climate variability.

23. Survey analysis Why ? And How ? • In addition to climate variability, the low yields could be explained by: • A very low level of farmers schooling: • Only 20.7 % of farmers adopt the extension services advice. • The farmers cannot adopt easily new techniques even if they agree with them. • A difficulty for the extension services to change the farmers behaviours. • The extension services are efficient only in medium and large farms (Dr. Chennoufi and Dr. Nefzaoui) : • “technologies generated appear to be more readily adopted by large-scale farmers, agricultural development agencies, rural development societies and cooperative farms, rather than by the majority of medium-and small-scale farmers”.

24. The involvement of the rural population concerned to attain the objective remains essential. That is why nowadays the participative approach is necessary for the use of new technology. The approach objective is to develop technologies adapted to the ecological and socio economic conditions. We can attend these objectives by research development programs realized taking into account the farmer’s strategies. Nevertheless in Tunisia, the strategies of rural development are directed towards a participative approach and a technical aid mainly for small farmers who represent about 80% of farmers.