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Work and play: Disease spread, social behaviour and data collection in schools

Work and play: Disease spread, social behaviour and data collection in schools. Dr Jenny Gage, Dr Andrew Conlan, Dr Ken Eames . Diseases then and now. Plague. 1918 Flu. Plague. 1918 Flu. HIV/AIDS. Plague. What are the mechanisms by which diseases are transmitted?. Discussion.

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Work and play: Disease spread, social behaviour and data collection in schools

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  1. Work and play: Disease spread, social behaviour and data collection in schools Dr Jenny Gage, Dr Andrew Conlan, Dr Ken Eames

  2. Diseases then and now Plague

  3. 1918 Flu Plague

  4. 1918 Flu HIV/AIDS Plague

  5. What are the mechanisms by which diseases are transmitted? Discussion

  6. Microbes Viruses Bacteria Worms

  7. Microbes Viruses Bacteria Worms Person to person spread

  8. Seasonal flu occurs most winters. We want to understand the process, then we can control it. What causes flu? How is it spread? How can we prevent its spread? Discussion www.google.org/flutrends

  9. Virus Molecules

  10. Individuals Virus Molecules

  11. Individuals Social Groups Virus Molecules

  12. Individuals Populations Social Groups Virus Molecules

  13. Activity: The Standing Disease • Everyone starts sitting down. • One person stands and is the first case. • They pick two still sitting to infect. • Those two stand up and each pick two others from those still sitting. • The next generation stands up and each pick two more … and so on. • How many steps did the disease take to infect whole class? • If time: try with THREE instead of TWO • What if your class was bigger?

  14. 1

  15. 1 2

  16. 1 4 2

  17. 1 4 2 8

  18. 1 4 2 16 8

  19. 1 4 2 32 16 8

  20. Discussion How many steps do you think it would take to infect everyone in the world?

  21. After 10 steps 1024 people are infected …

  22. After 22 steps over 2 million people are infected …

  23. 6.7 billion people in the world …

  24. 6.7 billion people in the world … 33 steps!

  25. Plot the doubling sequence as a graph

  26. Deaths 800 600 400 200 Weeks 5 10 15 20 25 30 Plot the doubling sequence as a graph Early part of epidemic Bombay plague epidemic, 1906

  27. Deaths 800 600 400 200 Weeks 5 10 15 20 25 30 Plot the doubling sequence as a graph Bombay plague epidemic, 1906 Doubling gives a good match for the early part of an epidemic

  28. Mathematicians try to find ways to model how diseases spread. The Standing Disease is a simple way to do this … … but it doesn’t explain why after a rapid rise in infections there is a peak, and then the rate of infection starts to drop. You will find out more about this in the presentation Modelling Disease.

  29. Mathematicians try to find ways to model how diseases spread. The Standing Disease is a simple way to do this … … but it doesn’t explain why after a rapid rise in infections there is a peak, and then the rate of infection starts to drop. You will find out more about this in the presentation Modelling Disease.

  30. Mathematicians try to find ways to model how diseases spread. The Standing Disease is a simple way to do this … … but it doesn’t explain why after a rapid rise in infections it peaks, and then the rate of infection starts to drop. You will find out more about this in the presentation Modelling Disease.

  31. Mathematicians try to find ways to model how diseases spread. The Standing Disease is a simple way to do this … … but it doesn’t explain why after a rapid rise in infections it peaks, and then the rate of infection starts to drop. You will find out more about this in the presentation Modelling Disease.

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