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Municipal Market Update. December 4, 2008. Discussion Topics. Recent events in the capital markets Impact on national and local municipal markets Historical interest rates Continued challenges with Bond insurers Commercial banks Investment banks Summary Contact information.
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Municipal Market Update December 4, 2008
Discussion Topics • Recent events in the capital markets • Impact on national and local municipal markets • Historical interest rates • Continued challenges with • Bond insurers • Commercial banks • Investment banks • Summary • Contact information
Timeline of Capital Markets Developments • US economy is healthy; interest rates are low and consumers feel confident • This helped push up real-estate values • With values escalating, lenders felt more confident about making mortgages to customers whose poor credit histories had prevented them from buying homes in the past • Defaults in the mortgage market began to spill over into the asset-backed security and CDO markets and seeped into every area of the financial markets • There is great concern about the exposure of major investment banks, and several banks were downgraded • The rating agencies are concerned about the exposure of bond insurance companies, and a full review is initiated • Home ownership reaches a record high of 69% in 2004 • Sub-prime loans expanded to 20 percent of the mortgage market in 2006, from 9 percent a decade earlier 2000 2006 2007 2008 • The mortgage market began seeing an increase in defaults and delinquency to a level that exceeded modeled expectations • Property values stopped increasing or started to decrease • Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM) began to reset higher • Uncertainty and volatile markets continue as investors seek liquidity and safe credit structure • Volatility expected to continue • Recession expected to last until 2010 • Skyrocketing housing prices lured real-estate speculators • This created even more demand and drove the cycle further Note: This timeline is highly simplified for discussion purposes Sources: Ponder Investment Company research and NPR.org news articles
Impact on the Municipal Market • The immediate impact on the municipal market was high interest rates and a halt to new bond issues coming to market • Flight to quality generally meant investment in U.S. Treasuries which has pushed benchmark treasury yields to 50-year lows with the 2-yr at 1.00% and the 10-yr at 2.93% as of 11/28/08 • Massive out-flows from municipal money market funds resulted in significantly higher rates • SIFMA Index (1) resets • Few new variable-rate demand bonds were issued • Many commercial banks have been unwilling to provide LOC support for new issues during this volatile time • Investment banks have been reluctant to take on additional remarketing business when it was so difficult to successfully remarket debt currently outstanding • Daily Variable Rate Demand Bonds (“VRDBs”) have significantly out-performed weekly bonds • No new fixed-rate bond issues came to market for several weeks • The Securities Industry Financial Market Association Index is a 7-day index comprised of tax-exempt variable rate demand bonds (“VRDBs). The Index represents a cross section of national VRDB issues. The rate resets on every Wednesday afternoon and becomes effective on Thursday.
Short-term Variable Rates • Although the relationship between SIFMA and 67% 1M LIBOR has held over the long-term, the current credit turmoil has caused a spike in short-term tax-exempt VRDO yields in late September. • The SIFMA index as of 11/19/08 was 1.12%, implying a short term ratio of SIFMA to 1M LIBOR of 79%. • The disruption in the tax-exempt market is attributable to several factors: • Seasonal tax implications (September 15 tax payments and September 30 quarter end) • Money Market Fund Assets down substantially in late September • Flight to quality given credit and economic environment • Failed remarketings that result in higher rates • Widening demand gap between troubled and well-regarded Letter of Credit banks • Over the past month the market has responded positively • MMFs have begun to experience net inflows • Strong investor demand for new “untainted” VRDO issues • Significant concerns remain regarding concentration of exposure to relatively few bank names and uncertainty surrounding practical impact of central bank guarantees On September 24th, SIFMA reset at 7.96% • Based on market conditions as of November 21, 2008 and subject to change. SIFMA = 1.12% and 1M LIBOR = 1.39% • Fixed spread quoted based on a Act/360 day count basis.
Impact on the Municipal Market • Tax-exempt market has begun to recover • MMFs beginning to see net inflows; strong demand for short-term paper easing variable rate borrowing costs • Merrill Lynch brought a fixed-rate healthcare deal to market on October 23, the first in over six weeks • Providence Health and Services (Aa2/AA) • Yield of 6.70% in 2038 which reflects a credit spread of 1.33% versus 0.50% one year ago • In October and November strong AA and A rated credits begin coming to market, including Trinity (St. Alphonsus) and St. Luke’s • Credit spreads remain in the +1.50% to 1.80% for strong credits • The first BBB+ transaction went to market in October • Loma Linda, CA, with credit spread of 2.89% • Forward looking supply is still substantial • Transactions that can access retail distribution are benefiting with lower interest rates • Conditions still very volatile from day to day
Recent Trend in Long-term Fixed Rates • Graph shows the relationship between indices over the past 18 months • Rate history provided from April 2007 through November 21, 2008 • Approximate “A” rated Healthcare traditional fixed rates. Rates are estimates and do not necessarily reflect actual traded levels. • Swap rates are quoted at mid-market and do not include any ongoing costs
Trinity Pricing Summary • Highlights of the market included • Strong retail demand in Idaho • One of first 5 Healthcare transactions to come to market in six weeks due to credit crunch • Significant institutional investor participation • The limited supply of Idaho municipal bonds was a plus with institutional investors • Idaho benefit of 12 to 30 basis points
Challenges for Healthcare Providers Accessing Capital Markets • Investment Banking Firms • 3 top underwriters exited the municipal business • Bear Stearns • UBS • Lehman • Others, including Citigroup, under pressure and reluctant to commit capital • Reduced headcount through mandatory reductions in force • Significant decrease in available capital • Product offerings have changed dramatically, and differ by firm • Increased return on capital requirements, putting further pressure on fees • Monoline Bond Insurance Companies • No consensus on long-term stability of any insurer • Little perceived value of bond insurance • Higher premiums and more restrictive covenants • Requests for consent difficult and costly to secure • Credit Enhancement Providers (primarily commercial banks) • Letters and lines of credit significantly more costly • Covenants more restrictive • Trading levels increased due to market capacity constraints • Provision of credit tied to additional fee business • Regional banks gaining business
Current Underwriting Experience • Variable Rate Debt • For direct pay letters of credit deals, rates have returned to one to two percent and lower in some instances • For standby letters of credit, insured transactions, and issues with other credit concerns, variable rates are as high as 7% • Fixed Rate Debt • Access to market remains very volatile even for highly rated issuers and has become more difficult in the last two weeks • Longer underwriting periods for negotiated transactions and shorter notices for competitive transactions are becoming more common • Underwriters are less willing to commit capital by taking down bonds without increased underwriting spreads • Difficult to find buyers throughout the entire maturity structure • Mitigation Measures • Be flexible with timing and structure • Smaller issues are better because of strong but limited retail demand
Idaho Tax-Exempt Market • Idaho Market for fixed rate, tax-exempt debt has performed relatively well: • Low supply of bonds; likely to continue • Retail demand is strong • Conditions are still very volatile; similar transactions receive wildly varying reception only days apart • What could change on a local basis • If rates fall significantly, retail is less likely to be a major factor. Six percent appears to be threshold level • If rates decline, issuance could rise as slated refundings reach market • Issuance is likely to remain relatively low because decrease in housing development will mean fewer school bonds
Summary • The relationship between SIFMA and 1-month LIBOR has normalized, at least for now • Current VRDB programs should trade at or near SIFMA with the following qualifications • VRDBs with “tainted” credit support may continue to trade off significantly • Involvement of bond insurers • Credit quality of the supporting bank • Expertise of the remarketing agent • Daily VRDBs may continue to out-perform weekly VRDBs in the near term (months?) • Daily liquidity more valuable to investors than weekly liquidity • Many remarketing agents will not agree to take on the risks of daily remarketing • New bond issues are limited by access and cost of credit enhancement • Self-liquidity is a good option for strong (AA) borrowers
Summary, continued • The fixed-rate market appears to be opening up, particularly for highly rated credits, but there remains significant supply of new bonds with limited investor demand • The Bond Buyer’s 30-day visible supply as of December 2, 2008 was $21.3 billion, highest since October 2002 and 55% higher than the 12-month average • In recent years, institutional demand has been driven by tender option bond programs (“TOBs”) and leveraged buyers who have been under pressure from dislocated muni/Treasury ratios and margin calls • Many investors set up TOBs when the 30-year muni/Treasury ratio was 90% while recent levels were 134%, resulting in losses • Major broker-dealers have been imposing margin calls on customer TOBs • As VRDBs are put back to dealers, some are losing financing and therefore being forced to liquidate assets • High short-term rates may cause TOB programs to unwind if the short-term funding cost exceeds the coupon on the bonds • Retail investors have become much more important than in the past, but institutional buyers are still a major requirement for successful sale of a large issue • Covenant and security packages are more restrictive now than in the past
Summary, continued • Developments that could improve the municipal debt market include the following • Fear needs to subside and confidence needs to be restored • Continued retail buyer interest is important for sale of fixed-rate bonds and to support municipal money market funds • New issue volume and/or secondary market portfolio unwinding needs to ease and be absorbed • Crossover buyers need to return to the market, lured by relative upside and cheapness of municipals • Broker-dealers need to re-commit capital to improve liquidity in the marketplace • Financial products have generally performed as expected • With the possible exception of auction bonds, where investors significantly under-priced the value of liquidity • Market uncertainty increases cost, security requirements and investor scrutiny • “Flight to quality” behavior by investors tends to disproportionately affect the tax-exempt market
Contact Information • Michael Lewis, Vice President Public Finance • Office phone: 208-344-8587 • Mobile phone: 206-330-7656 • Email: mlewis@snwsc.com • Michael Tym, Vice President • Office phone: 219-531-2369 • Mobile phone: 312-961-0274 • Email: mtym@ponderco.com