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The scrubbers outcome

The scrubbers outcome. Clean Air Act of 1977 in effect mandated scrubbers delegated the decision to EPA which, given the constraints, had little or no choice Short-term consequences dirtier air in the East cleaner air in the West higher electricity costs* Longer-term consequences

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The scrubbers outcome

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  1. The scrubbers outcome • Clean Air Act of 1977 in effect mandated scrubbers • delegated the decision to EPA which, given the constraints, had little or no choice • Short-term consequences • dirtier air in the East • cleaner air in the West • higher electricity costs* • Longer-term consequences • scrubber technology improved, but... • overall effectiveness still questioned • SO2and particulates removed. With latter also go alkalines. Net effects unclear • Tradable permits regulatory mechanism of choice now, with reservations…objections [distribution]

  2. Two theories of government decision-making Preferences (interests) Policy (any constraints on economic or social activity) GOVERNMENT Public policy perspective Structured pluralism perspective later The scrubbers case suggests that decision-making within the black box is driven at least as much by input-side, constituency-specific distributive concerns as by output-side, nation-as-a-whole efficiency concerns.

  3. Approximation of public policy perspective Low cost Low cost Expected consequences of new policies technological constraint Existing plants Old plants on average LSC Scrubbers Clean air Clean air NSPS NSPS The present (approximately) The future (approximately)

  4. Progress report • What determines whether interests will become active on a given issue? • interest group analysis • {Wilson/Lowi “nature of politics”} • The PD / collective action problem (p > c/b) • The interest group spreadsheet • What determines whether and how policy will change? • collective choice analysis within institutions • voting theory • What determines whether activity will have an impact? • knowledge about political actors’ concerns • strategies for conveying information and other valued resources

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