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Iraq

Iraq. Timeline. 1. Bush 43 WMD Argument. Assumption: Iraq has WMD October 2002 NIE Pro and Con. 2. Spreading Democracy. Falling Dominoes and Democracy Map from Freedom House (2006). 3. Unfinished Business. 1998 Iraq Liberation Act 1990/91 Gulf War

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Iraq

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  1. Iraq Timeline

  2. 1. Bush 43 WMD Argument Assumption: • Iraq has WMD • October 2002 NIE • Pro and Con

  3. 2. Spreading Democracy • Falling Dominoes and Democracy • Map from Freedom House (2006)

  4. 3. Unfinished Business • 1998 Iraq Liberation Act • 1990/91 Gulf War • When was the first Bush 43 meeting on overthrowing Saddam Hussein?

  5. 4. Iraq and Al-Qaeda Relationship? • Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: US Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence on Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and 304-370) • Levin Report, October 2004 • Pentagon Report, August 2007

  6. 2002-2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case • VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002; • UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02) • Congressional Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq, PL 107-243, 10/16/02 • National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003: “mushroom cloud” comment • Secretary of State Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)

  7. US is Committed: Debates Questions About the War: • Should we invade? • What to expect if we do invade? • Troop Levels needed?

  8. Questions About After the War Building Democracy: • Internal Issues • Will this be like Japan and Germany after WWII • Or Bosnia

  9. Regional Dynamics Iran Syria Al-Qaeda in Iraq Questions About After the War

  10. March 19, 2003: US Invasion April 9, 2003

  11. May 1, 2003

  12. But… Mission Complicated Insurgency • Ex-Ba’ath and ex-military • Al-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004 • Kurdish Independence? • Shiite militias (Iran?) • Moqtada al-Sadr

  13. Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007(Washington Post)

  14. Political Developments? Honest Attempts to Build Government • Ethnic parties • Religious parties • Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shi’ite Arab • Shi’ite vs. Shi’ite • Sunni vs. Sunni • OIL

  15. Positive Political Developments • 7/03 Interim Governing Council • 12/03 Saddam Hussein captured • 6/04 New government under PM Iyad Allawi takes over • 1/05 Election of Transitional National Assembly • 8/05 Shiite and Kurds coalition writes constitution • 10/05 Constitution approved by referendum • 12/05 Legislature chosen under constitution • Council of Representatives • 4/06 New government chosen by Council of Representatives

  16. Public Opinion of US Around the World Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project report, “America's Image Slips, But Allies Share U.S. Concerns Over Iran, Hamas,” 6/13/06: http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=252

  17. Al-Qaeda after Invasion • AQ in Iraq • Abu Musab al-Zarqawi • (killed June 2006) • AQ after Iraq (Declassified April 2006 NIE)

  18. US public opinion turns against the war Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, 2003-2007, March 2007:http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-in-public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007

  19. Bush 43 Approval Ratings

  20. Questions • How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq WMD? • How could the US have been so wrong about aftermath? • We’re there: what do we do? • The Bush surge • Iraq Study Group • Democratic candidates: Withdrawal Plans

  21. Awakening Councils (summer 2006) US Army/USMC Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24/MCWP 3-33.5) General David Petraeus Good News?

  22. The Result of Strategy ShiftFrom Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, March 2008 DoD Report to Congress, p. 18

  23. Obama Policy • 2/27/09 Speech • Refocus on Afghanistan

  24. Pakistan Northwest Frontier Province Federally Administered Tribal Areas The Bigger Battle?

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